Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Ding Dang (@XiaMiPP)
OKX market data shows that over the past 24 hours, BTC experienced a strong V-shaped rebound, once approaching the key $70,000 level, currently trading at $68,000 with a 24H gain of 6.1%. ETH and SOL also showed very strong performance, following Bitcoin's rebound with significant rallies. ETH once broke through $2,100, with a 24H maximum gain of 15%, currently trading at $2,050; SOL once broke through $90, currently trading at $87 with a 24H gain of 8.1%. Market sentiment has noticeably warmed up. All three have now reached key resistance levels; watch whether they can hold and continue to advance.
In US stocks, the Dow rose 0.63%, the S&P 500 rose 0.81%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.26%; the crypto sector collectively strengthened, with Circle surging 35.47%, recouping losses from the past month in a single day.
In derivatives, over the last 24 hours, the total liquidation amount was $579 million, with long liquidations at $115 million and short liquidations at $464 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid - BTC-USD, worth $10.4154 million.
On the capital front, according to sosovalue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $250 million yesterday, potentially ending the previous five consecutive weeks of net outflows. Lookonchain monitoring showed that in the past 5 hours, BlackRock's Bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT saw a net inflow of 1,225 BTC, valued at $83.92 million.
"Bitcoin Should Be Worth at Least $150,000"
This morning, the crypto industry was shaken by one sentence: "As everyone knows, Bitcoin should be worth at least $150,000 right now."
The reason is that as the liquidators of Terraform Labs sued the renowned US market maker Jane Street, it unveiled a storm of market speculation that had been brewing for months. A widely circulated long post on X (by Justin Bechler) connected three clues, pointing directly to Jane Street systematically suppressing the Bitcoin price through its privileged position, keeping it far below its "deserved" level.
The core allegations are divided into three acts: First, the "insider old account" of the Terra/LUNA collapse. It allegedly used insider information obtained through a private group "Bryce's Secret," created by former intern Bryce Pratt, to exit early and accelerate the crash. The lawsuit claims these trades "could not have been achieved without non-public information" and seeks compensation;
Second, the "10 AM sharp dump" pattern. Almost every trading day, Bitcoin would mysteriously plummet by 2-3% around this time, precisely liquidating leveraged positions, only to rebound hours later. On-chain analysis from Glassnode and others showed this algorithmic selling pressure was highly regular. Coincidentally: After the Terra lawsuit was exposed, this "10 AM plunge" pattern briefly disappeared; once the spotlight faded, it returned;
Third, super bullish on the surface, but疑似 massive net short in reality. Public 13F filings show Jane Street holds over 20 million shares of IBIT (once nearing a market value of $2.5 billion), with MSTR holdings surging 473%, appearing super bullish on the surface. But industry insiders claim Jane Street表面上 accumulated large Bitcoin spot inventories through the ETF creation/redemption mechanism, but实际上 likely used this as a basis to issue大量 Bitcoin options, hedging with derivatives to remain directionally neutral. This is equivalent to continuously投放 synthetic Bitcoin supply into the market, thereby削弱 Bitcoin's scarcity narrative and creating long-term upward resistance for the spot price.
The storm triggered by this statement continues to发酵. Whether the allegations against Jane Street by the Terraform liquidators are substantiated awaits court裁决. However, this controversy has provided an emotional outlet for the market.
For more insider details, also refer to Odaily Planet Daily's just-published article 《From the Terra Collapse to the "10 AM Strike", How Did Jane Street Play the Markets Across Two Continents?》
However, Monad co-founder Keone Hon also stated that the conspiracy theory of Jane Street suppressing Bitcoin below $150,000 doesn't hold water. Hedging short IBIT positions with long futures means that, on average, other parties end up holding short futures positions, which they must hedge with long spot positions. The sum of all positions in the market (converted to delta) always equals the total supply of Bitcoin (approx. 20 million). Of course, any single party can decide to go short, thereby increasing long positions. In short, hedging futures with ETFs means there are always offsetting positions in the market; the market can be distorted short-term but can hardly defy the conservation of supply and demand long-term.
Market Confidence from Two Earnings Reports
If the conspiracy theory provided emotional tension for the market, what truly pushed the price upward were perhaps two better-than-expected earnings reports.
First, Circle delivered an exceptionally漂亮 Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings report. Q4 revenue reached $770 million, a year-on-year increase of 77%, up 4.1% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding previous market expectations of $749 million. Most importantly, EPS (earnings per share) also far exceeded expectations, indicating significantly enhanced profitability, primarily benefiting from the recovery in USDC scale and interest income brought by the high-interest-rate environment. Simultaneously, USDC circulation increased significantly year-on-year, and on-chain transaction volume continued to expand, indicating that the structural demand for stable币 is still rising. This is the core reason for the market's positive feedback. It at least proves that the panic caused by previous whale sell-offs was more about portfolio rebalancing, and the funds are still within the crypto industry—they might just be waiting for the right moment to "buy the dip."
The second earnings report came from NVIDIA. Its Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion and data center revenue of $62.3 billion both exceeded market expectations, and it once again provided an optimistic quarterly revenue forecast, guiding around $78 billion, higher than the market's estimate of $73 billion, indicating that large-scale AI computing construction remains on track.
This is crucial for the AI narrative. The market needs NVIDIA to prove that the AI investment boom can translate into sustained real money, alleviating concerns about an AI bubble.
Institutional Allocation and Miner Movements
Subtle changes have already appeared on the demand side.
Several university endowment funds are adjusting their investment strategies against the backdrop of declining returns on traditional assets and beginning to allocate to cryptocurrency ETFs. Harvard University and Brown University have disclosed holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF positions in their latest 13F filings. Although relatively small compared to their overall portfolio size, it shows that digital assets have moved from the fringe of institutional finance into the mainstream toolbox.
Amid Bitcoin's successive declines, many small and medium-sized DATs have surrendered one after another, choosing to sell their held Bitcoin or terminate buying plans. It seemed like only Strategy remained the market's sole major bullish force. However, DDC Enterprise Limited announced an additional purchase of 50 BTC this week, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 2,118. This marks the company's seventh consecutive week of increasing its Bitcoin holdings, currently ranking 34th globally among publicly listed companies by Bitcoin holdings.
Movements in the mining sector are also worth noting. While the Bitcoin price fell, several mining company stock prices rose against the trend. For example, TeraWulf's stock price rose 31% month-to-date, Cipher Mining rose 8%; Hut 8 rose 6%; Core Scientific remained basically flat. Analysis suggests that Bitcoin miners are currently among the targets with high short interest from hedge funds. If fundamentals improve, it could trigger short-covering rallies. Moreover, these companies have locked in long-term and attractive power contracts, giving them a structural advantage on the energy cost side. Their strategic value extends beyond单纯的 Bitcoin mining operations. Capital is flowing to "structural winners", while traditional miners may face the risk of being marginalized.
Conclusion
This V-shaped rebound may not be the starting point of a trend reversal, but it accomplished something more important: providing the market with a new explanatory framework. When the market regains reasons to explain price increases, risk appetite has the potential to rebuild.
