Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)
Prediction markets are a topic of extremely high discussion in the community recently. Besides Polymarket and Kalshi, the prediction market within the BNB Chain ecosystem has also been growing and strengthening. According to Dune data, looking at the trading volume of the three major prediction market platforms on BNB Chain from yesterday, Opinion currently leads far ahead of the others with a market share of 75% and a trading volume of $125 million yesterday; followed by Probable, backed by the PancakeSwap team, with a market share of 14.5% and a trading volume of $24 million yesterday; predict.fun, founded by dingaling, ranks third with a market share of 10.5% and a trading volume of $17 million yesterday.
BNB Chain Ecosystem Prediction Market Share (December 22)
BNB Chain Ecosystem Prediction Market Trading Volume (December 22)
Next, Odaily Planet Daily will take you to understand the three prediction market platforms on BNB Chain that have received investment from YZi Labs: Opinion, predict.fun, and Probable.
Opinion: The Leader in BNB Chain's Prediction Market Ecosystem, Launched Christmas & New Year Points Activity Yesterday
Opinion is the first prediction market platform on the BNB Chain ecosystem. According to ROOTDATA data, Opinion announced the completion of a $5 million seed round financing on March 18 this year. This round was led by YZi Labs, with participation from echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold, Amber Group, and others. Additionally, Opinion was one of the 4 best-performing projects in the previous Binance Labs MVB program.
Points Rules
Opinion points are allocated on a weekly basis, with a total of 100,000 points rewarded per week. The rules are as follows:
1. Trading volume requirement: ≥ $200 per week (and a single order ≥ $10) to be counted for points.
2. Holding time: The larger the position and the longer the holding time → the higher the points.
3. Liquidity orders (limit orders): Limit order amount ≥ $10 to count for points; the longer the order is placed and the closer the price is to the best bid/ask → the more points; limit orders have 0 fees and add points weight, making them the most stable way to earn points (market orders charge about 2% fees).
4. Trading volume and fees: The higher the transaction volume and the more fees contributed, the more points earned.
Christmas & New Year Points Activity
Yesterday (December 22), Opinion announced on platform X the launch of the Christmas & New Year points activity. Specific details are as follows:
- Activity reward: A total of 100,000 points;
- Activity period: From December 22 to January 5, 2026, lasting two weeks;
- Ways to earn points: Daily Warriors, 20,000 points total (trade > 3 times daily, and meet the requirement for > 10 days); Volume Kings: 20,000 points total (daily trading volume > $2,000, and meet the requirement for > 10 days); Binance Wallet Elite: 10,000 points total (accumulated trading volume during the activity > $2,000); Diamond Hands: 20,000 points total; Mystery Finale: 30,000 points total.
Additionally, some notes on the ways to earn points:
- Diamond Hands reward: Allocated based on the time-weighted open positions of all users during the activity period, data comes from regular platform snapshots;
- Daily Warriors and Volume Kings rewards: Wallets that meet the corresponding daily trading threshold for at least 10 days during the activity period will share the respective rewards;
- Binance Wallet Elite reward: Users who complete a cumulative trading volume > $2,000 during the activity period via Binance Wallet will share the reward. This reward requires using a keyless address or a newly imported wallet; old wallets already registered with OPINION are not eligible.
predict.fun: Founder is NFT field renowned figure dingaling, First Week Points Activity Ends Tonight at 10 PM
predict.fun is a prediction market platform launched on BNB Chain, founded by the previously well-known figure in the NFT field, dingaling. Unlike traditional prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, predict.fun has implemented a key innovation: funds used by users to participate in predictions are no longer idle but can simultaneously generate additional returns during the prediction period.
On December 17, predict.fun's founder dingaling announced on platform X that the platform is officially open and has airdropped initial points to Meme traders on BNB Chain, Aster participants, and active users of various prediction markets. (For more interaction tutorials, read: Step-by-Step Guide to Participating in CZ-Supported predict.fun)
Today, predict.fun officially announced on platform X that the first week points activity will end at 10 PM Beijing time tonight. Prediction points rewards and other additional airdrop rewards will be credited to users' personal accounts in 3 days, and the leaderboard will also be updated. Additionally, the second week points activity will start immediately after the first week activity ends.
Probable: Prediction Market Incubated by PancakeSwap, Points System Coming Soon
On December 16, PancakeSwap announced the launch of Probable, a fully on-chain prediction market platform incubated by them (platform language supports switching to Simplified Chinese). This project is jointly supported by PancakeSwap and YZi Labs and will be exclusively deployed on BNB Chain. PancakeSwap stated that Probable is an independent project, and its team will advance product development and ecosystem expansion with the support of PancakeSwap and YZi Labs.
According to the introduction, Probable is positioned as a user-centric on-chain prediction platform, featuring zero fees, fully on-chain settlement, and a simplified user experience. Initially, the platform will not charge prediction fees. Relying on BNB Chain's low-cost and high-performance infrastructure, it supports users to predict cryptocurrency trends, global events, sports events, and some regional characteristic markets.
At the mechanism level, Probable uses UMA's Optimistic Oracle as an event adjudication tool, achieving result confirmation through a dispute-based verification method to enhance the transparency and censorship resistance of the prediction market. Additionally, users can top up with any token, and the system will automatically exchange it for USDT on BNB Chain for participation in predictions, lowering the operational barrier.
Currently, Probable's points system has not yet been launched. According to official information, a new points system is coming soon. Points will be calculated based on users' trading volume, and the backend has already started counting and accumulating users' current trading volume.
