Grayscale Fund Outlook for 2026: Ten New Investment Opportunities and False Hypes in Crypto
marsbitPubblicato 2025-12-18Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-18
Introduzione
Grayscale's 2026 outlook predicts a structural shift in digital asset investment driven by increased demand for alternative value stores and greater regulatory clarity. This is expected to attract more capital inflows, broaden adoption, and further integrate blockchain into mainstream finance. The report forecasts the end of the "four-year crypto cycle" and anticipates Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs in H1 2026.
Key investment themes include:
1. Dollar devaluation boosting demand for assets like BTC and ETH.
2. Regulatory progress supporting adoption.
3. Growth of stablecoins post-GENIUS Act.
4. An inflection point for asset tokenization.
5. The need for privacy solutions as blockchain goes mainstream.
6. Blockchain-based solutions for AI centralization.
7. Accelerated DeFi growth, led by lending.
8. Next-gen infrastructure for mainstream adoption.
9. A focus on sustainable revenue models.
10. The rise of staking as a default for investors.
The report identifies quantum computing and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) as overhyped themes with limited market impact in 2026. The conclusion emphasizes that the era of institutional adoption will create a clear divide between assets with strong fundamentals and regulatory access and those without.
We anticipate that 2026 will accelerate structural shifts in the digital asset investment landscape, driven primarily by two key trends: increased macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value and enhanced regulatory clarity. The convergence of these two trends is expected to attract more capital inflows, broaden the adoption of digital assets (particularly among wealth management and institutional investors), and further integrate public blockchains into mainstream financial infrastructure.
Consequently, we expect digital asset valuations to rise in 2026, and the "crypto four-year cycle" theory (which posits that the crypto market follows a cyclical pattern every four years) will come to an end. We believe that Bitcoin's price may reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
Grayscale anticipates that bipartisan-supported crypto market structure legislation will become U.S. law in 2026. This will further drive the integration of public blockchains with traditional finance, facilitate compliant trading of digital asset securities, and potentially allow startups and established companies to issue securities on-chain.
The outlook for fiat currencies is increasingly uncertain; in contrast, we can be highly confident that the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026. Due to rising fiat currency risks, we believe digital currency systems like Bitcoin and Ethereum will become increasingly sought after for their transparency, programmability, and ultimate scarcity.
We expect that more crypto assets will be offered through exchange-traded products (ETPs) in 2026. These investment vehicles have seen initial success, but many platforms are still conducting due diligence and working to incorporate crypto assets into their asset allocation processes. As this process matures, we anticipate more slow-moving institutional capital entering the market in 2026.
Additionally, we have listed ten major themes for crypto investment in 2026, reflecting the broad range of emerging use cases for public blockchain technology. For each theme, we have included related crypto assets. Specifically, they are:
- Dollar Devaluation Risks Drive Demand for Monetary Alternatives
- Regulatory Clarity Supports Digital Asset Adoption
- Stablecoin Influence to Grow Driven by the GENIUS Act
- Asset Tokenization Reaches an Inflection Point
- Blockchain Technology Goes Mainstream, Privacy Solutions Become Urgent
- AI Centralization Spurs Demand for Blockchain Solutions
- DeFi Accelerates, Lending Sector Leads the Way
- Mainstream Adoption Requires Next-Generation Infrastructure
- Focus on Sustainable Revenue Models
- Investors Default to Staking for Yield
Finally, we believe the following two topics will have limited impact on the crypto market in 2026:
- Quantum Computing: Although research and preparation for post-quantum cryptography continue, we do not believe this issue will significantly impact market valuations next year.
- Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs): Despite widespread media attention, we do not expect DATs to be a major factor influencing the digital asset market in 2026.
2026 Digital Asset Outlook: The Dawn of the Institutional Era
Fifteen years ago, cryptocurrency was just an experiment: with only one asset (Bitcoin) and a market capitalization of about $1 million. Today, cryptocurrency has become an emerging industry and a medium-sized alternative asset class, comprising millions of tokens with a total market capitalization of approximately $3 trillion (see Figure 1). Currently, increasingly mature regulatory frameworks in major economies are driving the deep integration of public blockchains with traditional finance and bringing long-term capital inflows to the market.
Figure 1: Cryptocurrency has become a medium-sized alternative asset class
Throughout the development of cryptocurrency, token valuations have experienced four major cyclical corrections, approximately every four years (see Figure 2). In three of these cases, the cyclical peak in valuations occurred 1 to 1.5 years after the Bitcoin halving event, which happens every four years. The current bull market has lasted for over three years, and the most recent Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024, more than 1.5 years ago. Therefore, some market participants traditionally believe that Bitcoin's price may have peaked in October 2025, and 2026 will be a challenging year for cryptocurrency returns.
Figure 2: Rising valuations in 2026 will mark the end of the "4-Year Cycle Theory"
Grayscale believes that the crypto asset class is in a sustained bull market and predicts that 2026 will mark the end of the "explicit four-year cycle." We expect valuations to rise across all six major crypto asset sectors in 2026 and believe Bitcoin's price could break through its previous all-time high in the first half of the year.
The two pillars of our optimistic outlook:
First, sustained growth in macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value.
Bitcoin and Ethereum, as the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, can be viewed as scarce digital commodities and alternative monetary assets. Due to high public sector debt and its potential impact on long-term inflation (see Figure 3), fiat currencies (and assets denominated in fiat currencies) face additional risks. Scarce commodities, whether physical gold and silver or digital Bitcoin and Ethereum, have the potential to serve as "ballast" in investment portfolios to hedge against fiat currency risks. In our view, as long as the risks of fiat currency devaluation continue to rise, portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum is likely to increase as well.
Figure 3: U.S. debt issues raise questions about the credibility of low inflation
Second, regulatory clarity is driving institutional investment into public blockchain technology.
Although it may be overlooked, until this year, the U.S. government was conducting investigations or lawsuits against many leading companies in the crypto industry, including Coinbase, Ripple, Binance, Robinhood, Consensys, Uniswap, and OpenSea. Even now, exchanges and other crypto intermediaries still operate without clear guidance for spot markets.
However, this situation is gradually improving. In 2023, Grayscale won a lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), paving the way for spot crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs). In 2024, spot ETPs for Bitcoin and Ethereum were officially listed. In 2025, the U.S. Congress passed the GENIUS Act, regulating the stablecoin market, and regulators adjusted their stance towards the crypto industry, working with the industry to provide clear guidance while continuing to focus on consumer protection and financial stability. Grayscale expects that by 2026, the U.S. Congress will pass bipartisan-supported crypto market structure legislation, which will further solidify the position of blockchain-based financial systems in U.S. capital markets and promote continued inflows of institutional investment (see Figure 4).
Figure 4: Higher fundraising may indicate increased confidence among institutional investors
We believe that new capital entering the crypto ecosystem will primarily flow in through spot ETPs. Since the launch of Bitcoin ETPs in the U.S. in January 2024, global crypto ETPs have seen net inflows of $87 billion (see Figure 5). Despite the early success of these products, the process of incorporating crypto assets into mainstream investment portfolios is still in its early stages. Grayscale estimates that currently, less than 0.5% of assets managed by U.S. wealth management advisors are allocated to the crypto asset class.[2] This proportion is expected to grow as more platforms complete due diligence, establish capital market assumptions, and incorporate crypto assets into model portfolios.
Beyond wealth advisors, early institutional adopters have already included crypto ETPs in their portfolios, including Harvard Management Company and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala.[3] We expect this list to expand significantly by 2026.
Figure 5: Sustained inflows into spot cryptocurrency ETPs
As the crypto market becomes increasingly driven by institutional capital inflows, the characteristics of its price performance have also changed. In previous bull markets, Bitcoin's price rose by at least 1000% within a year (see Figure 6). This time, Bitcoin's maximum annual gain was about 240% (in the year ending March 2024). We believe this difference reflects the more stable buying behavior of institutional investors recently, rather than the momentum-driven retail FOMO of past cycles. Although crypto investment still carries significant risks, we believe the possibility of a prolonged and deep cyclical correction at the time of writing is relatively low. Instead, we think a steady price increase driven by institutional capital inflows is more likely to be the dominant trend next year.
Figure 6: Bitcoin's price has not experienced a sharp spike in this cycle
A supportive macroeconomic backdrop may also limit some of the downside risks for token prices in 2026. The past two cyclical peaks occurred during periods of Federal Reserve rate hikes (see Figure 7). In contrast, the Fed cut rates three times in 2025 and is expected to continue cutting rates next year. Kevin Hassett, a potential successor to Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, recently stated on "Face the Nation": "The American people can expect that President Trump will choose someone who will help them get lower-rate car loans and easier access to low-interest mortgages."[4] Overall, economic growth and the Fed's generally supportive policies should align with improved investor risk appetite and potential gains for higher-risk assets, including crypto assets.
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Figure 7: Previous cyclical peaks correlated with Fed rate hikes
Like all other asset classes, the crypto market is driven by a combination of fundamentals and capital flows. Commodity markets are cyclical, and the crypto market may experience prolonged cyclical corrections at some points in the future. However, we do not believe this will be the case in 2026. Fundamentally, the crypto market shows strong support: we expect continued growth in macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value, while regulatory clarity drives institutional investment into public blockchain technology. Furthermore, new capital continues to flow into the market: crypto ETPs are expected to be included in more investment portfolios by the end of next year. This cycle has not seen a massive wave of retail demand but rather sustained demand for crypto ETPs from a broad range of portfolios. Against an overall supportive macroeconomic backdrop, we believe these conditions will lay the foundation for the crypto asset class to reach new highs in 2026.
Top Ten Crypto Investment Themes for 2026
Crypto is a diverse asset class reflecting the numerous applications of public blockchain technology. The following sections outline Grayscale's views on the ten most important crypto investment themes for 2026—and two "distractions." For each theme, we list the tokens most relevant from Grayscale's perspective. For more background on the types of investable digital assets, please refer to our Crypto Sectors Framework.
Theme 1: Dollar Devaluation Risks Drive Demand for Monetary Alternatives
Relevant Crypto Assets: BTC, ETH, ZEC
The U.S. economy faces a debt problem (detailed in Figure 3), which could ultimately undermine the dollar's role as a store of value. Other countries face similar issues, but since the dollar is the dominant global international currency, the credibility of U.S. policy is more critical for potential capital flows. In our view, only a few digital assets can be considered viable stores of value, possessing sufficient widespread adoption, a high degree of decentralization, and limited supply growth capabilities. These include the two largest crypto assets by market capitalization, Bitcoin and Ethereum. Similar to physical gold, their value partly stems from their scarcity and autonomy.
Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million coins and is entirely controlled by programmed rules. For example, we can be certain that the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026. A digital currency system with透明, predictable, and ultimately scarce supply, while conceptually simple, is increasingly attractive in today's economy due to the tail risks of fiat currencies. As long as the macro imbalances causing fiat currency risks continue to increase, portfolio demand for alternative stores of value is likely to keep growing (see Figure 8). Additionally, Zcash, as a smaller decentralized digital currency, may also be suitable for portfolios hedging against dollar devaluation risk due to its privacy features (see Theme 5).
Figure 8: Macro imbalances may drive demand for alternative stores of value
Theme 2: Regulatory Clarity Supports Digital Asset Adoption
Relevant Crypto Assets: Almost all crypto assets
2025 saw significant progress in crypto regulatory clarity in the U.S., including the passage of the GENIUS Act (for stablecoins), the rescission of SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (on custody issues), the introduction of common listing standards for crypto ETPs, and the resolution of traditional banking access issues for the crypto industry (see Figure 9). Next year, we expect another major development: the passage of bipartisan-supported market structure legislation. The House passed a version of this legislation—the Clarity Act—in July, and the Senate has since initiated related procedures. Although many details仍需解决, this legislation generally provides a set of traditional financial rules for crypto capital markets, including registration and disclosure requirements, crypto asset classification, and insider trading rules.
In practice, more mature regulatory frameworks in the U.S. and other major economies could mean that regulated financial services firms can report digital assets on their balance sheets and begin trading on blockchains. It could also allow for on-chain capital formation, enabling both startups and established companies to issue regulated tokens. By further unlocking the full potential of blockchain technology, regulatory clarity should help increase the value of the crypto asset class overall. Given the potential importance of regulatory clarity for the crypto asset class in 2026, we believe a disruption in the bipartisan legislative process in Congress should be viewed as a potential downside risk.
Figure 9: Major progress on U.S. crypto regulatory clarity in 2025
Theme 3: GENIUS Act Drives Continued Growth in Stablecoin Influence
Relevant Crypto Assets: ETH, TRX, BNB, SOL, XPL, LINK
2025 was the "breakout year" for stablecoins: total circulation reached $300 billion, and average monthly trading volume hit $1.1 trillion in the six months ending November [5]. Additionally, the U.S. Congress passed the GENIUS Act, triggering a significant influx of institutional capital into the industry (see Figure 10). In 2026, we expect to see the practical results of these changes: stablecoins will be integrated into cross-border payment services, used as collateral on derivatives exchanges, appear on corporate balance sheets, and serve as alternatives to credit cards for online consumer payments. The growing popularity of prediction markets may also drive new demand for stablecoins. The growth in stablecoin trading volume is expected to bring revenue to the blockchains that record these transactions (such as ETH, TRX, BNB, and SOL), while also promoting the development of related infrastructure (like LINK) and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications (see Theme 7).
Figure 10: Stablecoins experience explosive growth
Theme 4: Asset Tokenization Reaches an Inflection Point
Relevant Crypto Assets: LINK, ETH, SOL, AVAX, BNB, CC
Currently, asset tokenization remains small: accounting for only 0.01% of the total global stock and bond market capitalization (see Figure 11). Grayscale expects asset tokenization to grow rapidly in the coming years, driven by more mature blockchain technology and clearer regulatory frameworks. It would not be surprising to see the size of tokenized assets grow by about 1000x by 2030. In our view, this growth will create value for blockchains processing tokenized asset transactions (such as Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Solana) as well as various supporting applications. Among on-chain supporting applications, Chainlink (LINK) is particularly promising due to its unique suite of software technologies.
Figure 11: Asset tokenization has enormous room for growth
Theme 5: Mainstream Adoption of Blockchain Technology Calls for Privacy Solutions
Relevant Crypto Assets: ZEC, AZTEC, RAIL
Privacy is a normal part of the financial system: almost everyone wants their salary, taxes, net worth, and spending habits not to be公开 on a ledger. However, most blockchains are transparent by default. If public blockchains want to integrate more deeply into the financial system, they need stronger privacy infrastructure—this becomes increasingly evident as regulation drives blockchain integration. Privacy features are gaining more attention, with potential beneficiaries including Zcash (ZEC), a decentralized digital currency similar to Bitcoin but with privacy protections; Zcash's price surged significantly in Q4 2025 (see Figure 12). Other major projects include Aztec (a privacy-focused Ethereum Layer 2 network) and Railgun (DeFi privacy middleware). Additionally, we may see increased adoption of confidential transactions on leading smart contract platforms like Ethereum (via ERC-7984) and Solana (via Confidential Transfers token extension). Improved privacy tools also require better identity and compliance infrastructure to support DeFi.
Figure 12: Growing investor focus on privacy features in crypto
Theme 6: AI Centralization Spurs Demand for Blockchain Solutions
Relevant Crypto Assets: TAO, IP, NEAR, WORLD
The fundamental fit between crypto technology and artificial intelligence (AI) is tighter and clearer than ever before. AI systems are becoming concentrated among a few dominant firms, raising concerns about trust, fairness, and ownership, and crypto technology offers foundational tools to directly address these risks. Decentralized AI development platforms like Bittensor work to reduce reliance on centralized AI technology; verifiable "Proof of Personhood" systems like World can distinguish humans from synthetic agents in a world flooded with artificial activity; and networks like Story Protocol provide transparent and traceable intellectual property in an era where the provenance of digital content is increasingly difficult to discern. Additionally, tools like X402—an open, zero-fee stablecoin payment layer for Base and Solana—support low-cost, instant micropayments, meeting the needs of agent-to-agent or machine-to-human economic interactions.
These components together form the early infrastructure of the "Agent Economy," where identity, computation, data, and payments must be verifiable, programmable, and censorship-resistant. Although this area is still early and unevenly developed, the intersection of crypto and AI is producing one of the field's most compelling long-term use cases. As AI becomes more decentralized, autonomous, and economically active, protocols dedicated to building its underlying infrastructure stand to benefit (see Figure 13).
Figure 13: Blockchain offers solutions to AI risks
Theme 7: DeFi Accelerates, Lending Sector Leads the Way
Relevant Crypto Assets: AAVE, MORPHO, MAPLE, KMNO, UNI, AERO, RAY, JUP, HYPE, LINK
Driven by technological advancements and regulatory tailwinds, decentralized finance (DeFi) applications saw significant development in 2025. The growth of stablecoins and tokenized assets are key success stories, but the DeFi lending sector also experienced notable growth, particularly platforms dominated by Aave, Morpho, and Maple Finance (see Figure 14).[7] Meanwhile, decentralized perpetual futures exchanges (like Hyperliquid) have become comparable in open interest and daily trading volume to some of the largest centralized derivatives exchanges. Looking ahead, the increasing liquidity, interoperability, and real-world price linkages of these platforms make DeFi a credible alternative for users wishing to conduct financial transactions directly on-chain. More DeFi protocols are expected to integrate with traditional fintech companies to leverage their infrastructure and existing user bases. We expect core DeFi protocols to benefit, including lending platforms like AAVE, decentralized exchanges like UNI and HYPE, and related infrastructure like LINK, as well as the blockchains supporting most DeFi activity (such as ETH, SOL, BASE).
Figure 14: DeFi's scale and diversity continue to grow
Theme 8: Mainstream Adoption Requires Next-Generation Infrastructure
<极>Relevant Crypto Assets: SUI, MON, NEAR, MEGA
A new generation of blockchains is constantly pushing the technological frontier. However, some investors believe that more block space is not needed, as demand on existing blockchains is not yet saturated. Solana was once a prime example of this criticism: a fast but underutilized blockchain, considered a symbol of "excess block space," but after a wave of adoption, it became one of the industry's biggest success stories. Although not all of today's high-performance blockchains will follow a similar path, we expect a few to stand out. Superior technology does not guarantee widespread adoption, but the architecture of these next-generation networks gives them unique advantages in emerging areas such as AI micropayments, real-time gaming loops, high-frequency on-chain transactions, and intent-based systems. In this area, we expect Sui to stand out due to its technical advantages and integrated development strategy (see Figure 15). Other promising projects include Monad (parallelized EVM), MegaETH (ultra-fast Ethereum Layer 2), and Near (AI-focused blockchain succeeding with its Intents product).
Figure 15: Next-gen blockchains like Sui offer faster, lower-cost transactions
Theme 9: Focus on Sustainable Revenue
Relevant Crypto Assets: SOL, ETH, BNB, HYPE, PUMP, TRX
Blockchains are not traditional businesses, but they do have measurable fundamentals, including user numbers, transaction volume, fees, capital/total value locked (TVL), developers, and applications. Among all metrics, Grayscale considers transaction fees to be the most valuable fundamental metric, as they are the hardest to manipulate and have the highest comparability between blockchains (and are also the best empirical fit indicator). Transaction fees can be analogized to "revenue" in traditional corporate finance. For blockchain applications, it is also important to distinguish between protocol fees/revenue and "supply-side" fees/revenue.[8] As institutional investors begin allocating capital to crypto, we expect them to focus on blockchains and applications with high revenue and/or revenue growth (excluding Bitcoin). Smart contract platforms with relatively high revenue include TRX, SOL, ETH, and BNB (see Figure 16). Application-layer assets with relatively high revenue include HYPE and PUMP, among others.
Figure 16: Institutional investors may focus more on blockchain fundamentals
Theme 10: Investors Default to Staking for Yield
Relevant Crypto Assets: LDO, JTO
In 2025, U.S. policymakers made two adjustments in the staking arena that will enable more token holders to participate: (i) the SEC clarified that liquid staking activities do not constitute securities transactions [9]; (ii) the IRS and Treasury announced that investment trusts/exchange-traded products (ETPs) can stake digital assets [10]. Guidance on liquid staking services is likely to benefit leading liquid staking protocols Lido and Jito on Ethereum and Solana, which have the highest TVL (Total Value Locked) [11]. More broadly, the fact that crypto ETPs can stake may make this model the default structure for holding investment positions in Proof-of-Stake tokens, leading to higher staking ratios and putting pressure on reward rates [12] (see Figure 17). In an environment of broader staking adoption, custodial staking via ETPs will provide a convenient structure for capturing rewards, while on-chain non-custodial liquid staking will have composability advantages in DeFi. We expect this dual structure to persist for some time.
Figure 17: Proof-of-Stake tokens offer native rewards
False Hypes for 2026
We expect each of the above investment themes to significantly impact the development of the crypto market in 2026. However, there are two hot topics that we believe will not have a substantial impact on the crypto market next year: the potential threat of quantum computing to crypto algorithms, and the evolution of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). Although these topics may generate significant discussion, we do not consider them core drivers of the market outlook.
If quantum computing technology continues to advance, most blockchains will eventually need to update their cryptographic algorithms. Theoretically, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive a private key from a public key, thereby generating a valid digital signature to spend a user's cryptocurrency.[13] Therefore, Bitcoin and most other blockchains—and almost all economic sectors using cryptography—will eventually need to upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptographic tools. However, experts estimate that quantum computers will not be powerful enough to break Bitcoin's cryptography before 2030.[14] Although research and community preparation regarding quantum risk may accelerate in 2026, we do not believe this theme will have a noticeable impact on prices.
The same applies to Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). The strategy of holding digital assets on corporate balance sheets, pioneered by Michael Saylor, inspired dozens of imitators in 2025. According to our estimates, DATs hold 3.7% of the BTC supply, 4.6% of ETH, and 2.5% of SOL.[15] However, demand for these instruments has declined since peaking in mid-2025: the market price to net asset value multiple (mNAV) for the largest DATs is now close to 1.0 (see Figure 18). Nonetheless, most DATs are not over-leveraged (or leveraged at all), so they may not be forced to sell assets even in a market downturn. The largest DAT by market cap, Strategy, recently raised a dollar reserve fund to continue paying dividends to preferred shares even if Bitcoin's price falls.[17] We expect the vast majority of DATs to behave like closed-end funds, trading at a premium or discount to net asset value, rarely liquidating assets. Although these instruments may become a permanent feature of the crypto investment landscape, we do not expect them to be a major source of new token demand or significant selling pressure in 2026.
Figure 18: DAT premiums have narrowed, but asset sales are unlikely
Conclusion
We expect a bright outlook for digital assets in 2026, driven primarily by two forces: macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value and increasing regulatory clarity. Next year, the connection between blockchain finance and traditional finance will deepen further, while institutional capital inflows will become a key trend. Tokens likely to attract institutional adoption will be those with clear use cases, sustainable revenue streams, and access to regulated trading venues and applications. Investors can expect a richer selection of crypto assets available through exchange-traded products (ETPs), with staking enabled where possible.
At the same time, regulatory clarity and institutional adoption may raise the bar for crypto assets entering the mainstream. For example, some crypto projects may need to meet new registration and disclosure requirements to access regulated exchanges. Furthermore, institutional investors may overlook crypto assets without clear use cases, even if those assets have relatively high market capitalizations. The GENIUS Act has already drawn a clear distinction between regulated payment stablecoins (with specific rights and responsibilities under U.S. law) and other stablecoins that do not enjoy the same status. Similarly, we expect the gap between assets with access to regulated trading venues and institutional capital and those without the same access to widen as crypto assets enter the institutional era. Crypto assets are entering a new era, and not all tokens will successfully transition to this new phase.
