Entering Christmas week, the global market's initial answer did not belong to the crypto market. Against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar and falling US bond yields, risk-aversion sentiment quickly heated up. Gold and silver took the lead, with prices repeatedly刷新历史高位 (hitting new historical highs), becoming the most obvious destination for funds. In contrast, the crypto market appeared unusually quiet. Bitcoin did not take off with the macroeconomic tailwinds but remained stuck in the 88,000-89,000 fluctuation range, lacking the aggressive posture expected before the holiday.
It is precisely against this contrast that the question of "whether Bitcoin will usher in a Santa Rally" has once again become a topic of repeated discussion in the market. The so-called Santa Rally, originally a seasonal phenomenon in traditional financial markets, refers to a phased rise in risk assets around Christmas, driven by improved sentiment and changes in liquidity. But in the crypto market, this pattern has never been stable. Whether this year's Bitcoin is "lagging behind" amid rising risk-aversion sentiment or quietly building momentum within a high range still requires looking for answers in real price action and fund structures.
Fundamentals: Macro Environment Still in a "Wait-and-See" State, Funds Flowing Out of Risk Assets
Gabriel Selby, Research Head at CF Benchmarks, pointed out that before the Federal Reserve obtains data for several consecutive months that clearly points to sustained disinflation, market participants are unlikely to truly increase their配置 (allocation) to risk assets like Bitcoin. In his view, the current macro environment is still in a "waiting for verification" stage.
This cautious sentiment is closely related to investors' high attention to a series of upcoming US economic data. The Q3 GDP data will be released soon, with market expectations for an annualized growth rate of about 3.5%, slightly lower than Q2's 3.8%; meanwhile, indicators like the Consumer Confidence Index and weekly initial jobless claims will provide more clues about the labor market conditions. The outcomes of these data will directly affect the market's judgment on the Fed's policy path and further influence overall risk appetite.
From other macro conditions, a weakening US dollar and falling US bond yields do provide a theoretical tailwind for risk assets. But the actual choices of funds have given a completely different answer. Amid rising risk-aversion sentiment, funds clearly优先流向 (flowed preferentially to) traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
Fund flow data further confirms this. According to statistics from SoSoValue, a clear divergence recently appeared at the ETF level: Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $158.3 million, and Ethereum ETFs saw an outflow of about $76 million; in contrast, XRP and Solana ETFs recorded small inflows of about $13 million and $4 million respectively, showing that funds are also undergoing structural adjustments within the crypto market, rather than a overall回流 (return flow).
Looking at digital asset investment products more broadly, CoinShares pointed out in its latest weekly fund flow report that digital asset investment products collectively saw a net outflow of approximately $952 million last week, marking the first net redemption (outflow) after four consecutive weeks of inflows. CoinShares attributed this fund outflow partly to the regulatory uncertainty brought by the slowed progress of the US Clarity Act, causing institutional investors to倾向于 (tend towards) reducing risk exposure in the short term.
Technical Structure: More Like Digestion Than Launch
From a technical structure perspective, Bitcoin's current trend is not明显偏空 (obviously bearish), but it's also hard to call it strong. The 88,000 to 89,000 US dollar range has become the core fluctuation zone repeatedly tested in the short term, while the area above 93,000 to 95,000 US dollars constitutes a key resistance that the bulls must break through.
Several traders pointed out that if Bitcoin fails to effectively break through this resistance range during Christmas week, even if there is a short-term rebound, it is more likely to be seen as a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. Conversely, if the price continues to maintain a high横盘 (sideways movement), it means the market is waiting for new driving factors, rather than actively choosing a direction.
The structure of the derivatives market also partly explains why Bitcoin appears particularly restrained during Christmas week. This Friday, the Bitcoin market will witness the largest options expiration in history, with a total value of up to $24 billion. Currently, bulls and bears are engaged in fierce博弈 (game) around key price levels:
Bull camp: Betting that BTC will break through the 100,000 US dollar mark.
Bear camp: Defending the 85,000 US dollar关口 (level) with full force.
Key level: 96,000 US dollars is seen as the分水岭 (watershed) for this round's trend. Holding above here maintains the rebound momentum; otherwise, the market will continue to face pressure.
What Do Analysts Think?
Against the backdrop of Bitcoin's delayed breakout, analysts' judgments are generally cautious. Several market observers pointed out that this year's Christmas week is more like a "structure test" rather than a window for sentiment-driven one-sided行情 (market movement).
Gabriel Selby, Research Head at CF Benchmarks, stated bluntly in a recent interview that Bitcoin's current price action does not fit the characteristics of a typical Santa Rally. In his view, a real holiday rally is often accompanied by持续占优 (sustained dominance) of buying pressure and trend continuation, rather than反复拉锯 (repeated tug-of-war) within a high range. "What we are seeing now looks more like the market消化 (digesting) previous gains, rather than building momentum for the next rise." This judgment is also corroborated by the reality of持续偏低 (persistently low) trading volume.
Crypto analyst DrBullZeus stated that BTC continues to fluctuate between the same support and resistance levels, with no clear breakout yet. Until a clear breakout occurs, the price will remain in a range-bound trend. Breaking above resistance would open the door to the 92,000 US dollar level, while breaking below support could lead to a price drop to the 85,000 US dollar region.
Legendary trader Peter Brandt最新复盘 (recently reviewed and pointed out) that Bitcoin has experienced 5 cycles of "parabolic growth followed by an 80% retracement" in 15 years, and the adjustment in this cycle has not yet bottomed out. Despite the冷酷 (harsh) short-term规律 (pattern), he predicted through cycle extrapolation that the next bull market peak will arrive in September 2029. Brandt emphasized that this asset's unprecedented attributes注定 (destine) it to move towards new highs through extreme洗盘 (shakeouts).
Bitcoin's "Santa Rally" has always been elusive. Looking back at history, there have been dazzling performances like surges of 33% and 46% during the holiday period in 2012 and 2016, but also平淡 (flat) or even declining years. Statistically, since 2011, Bitcoin's average gain during the Christmas period is about 7.9%.
However, judging from the current market structure, it seems difficult to reproduce a typical "Santa Claus rally" this year. The strength of gold and silver reflects more the集中释放 (concentrated release) of market risk-aversion sentiment; in contrast, Bitcoin's relative "calmness" once again highlights that it is still widely regarded as a risk asset in the current stage of global asset allocation.
Therefore, rather than simply attributing Bitcoin's current performance to "lagging behind," it is better to say that it is at a critical and微妙 (subtle) position: on the one hand, it lacks sufficient macroeconomic tailwinds to directly send it onto a new upward trajectory; on the other hand, there are no clear signals of a breakdown and weakness.
What truly determines whether Bitcoin can走出独立行情 (stage an independent rally) at the end of the year is not the "Christmas" time label, but whether market funds are willing to reinvest at the current high levels. Until this point is clearly confirmed,窄幅震荡 (narrow-range fluctuations) will likely remain the主旋律 (main theme) of this Christmas week.
Author: Bootly
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