On June 6th, BTC once fell below the $60,000 mark, dipping as low as $59,130. By June 8th, the Bitcoin price had recovered to around $63,000. Although the price has rebounded several thousand dollars, the earlier breach of the key psychological integer level continues to weigh heavily on market confidence and sentiment in the cryptocurrency space.
The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 15, indicating that market sentiment remains in "Extreme Fear." Most altcoins have also followed suit, plunging into a deep correction alongside the broader market.
Is it now a dip-buying zone? Institutions, traders, and others have shared their perspectives.
Glassnode Co-founder: $46k to $54k is the Key Bottom Range
Rafael, the co-founder of Glassnode, posted stating that Bitcoin has retraced approximately 50% from its all-time high. On-chain data shows that BTC is currently trading near a crucial support zone formed by the Median Realized Price ($64.1k) and the 200-week moving average ($61.7k).
Historically, Bitcoin has traded below this level for only about 7% of the time.
Looking at long-term valuation models, below the 200-week moving average lie the Realized Price (~$54k), the CVDD (~$46.2k), the Balanced Price (~$40k), and the Delta Price (~$35k) in descending order. Historically, bear market bottoms have touched this cost basis range before reversing. Among these, the CVDD is considered the most historically accurate bottom anchor. According to current model projections, the $46k to $54k range constitutes a higher-probability bottom zone, while $35k to $40k belongs to a deep capitulation area under extreme panic scenarios, accounting for less than 3% of trading days in history.
However, as the Bitcoin market matures, the magnitude of cyclical drawdowns shows a narrowing trend. The maximum declines in previous bear markets were 85%, 84%, and 77% respectively, whereas the current cycle has only retraced about 50% from its all-time high so far. This suggests the possibility of further declines, but a higher-probability bottom may lie in the $46k to $54k range. If a subsequent rebound occurs, $75k to $79k will become the first significant recovery zone, with greater resistance likely around the 50-week moving average near ~$93k and the previous all-time highs.
NYDIG Global Head of Research: AI is Siphoning Significant Crypto Capital
Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, stated in a research report that he believes the overlap between AI and crypto investors is far greater than many realize. Both attract investors seeking exposure to emerging technologies and alpha returns. As AI-related stocks continue to outperform the broader market, capital flows and rotates out of the crypto market. Investors are also preparing for what could be the largest tech IPO cycle in years. Sales by Mt. Gox creditors and increased market concerns have exacerbated the downturn.
Greg Cipolaro noted in his report that multiple metrics are approaching levels historically coincident with major bottoms. Bitcoin's MVRV Ratio has fallen to 1.2, and the percentage of supply in profit recently slipped below 50%, another indicator often associated with capitulation. However, the magnitude of this drawdown remains relatively mild by historical standards. He pointed out that Bitcoin's decline of about 53% from its peak ($126k in October) is much shallower than the 75%-90% retracements seen in previous cycles. Whether the low has already been formed likely depends on whether institutional demand has structurally altered the cycle or merely delayed a deeper realignment.
Standard Chartered Head of Digital Asset Research: Bitcoin Bottom is Almost Formed
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, stated that the Bitcoin bottom is "almost certainly formed," and the current price range may be the long-awaited buying opportunity for investors.
An important trigger for this decline was the sale of 32k BTC by Mt. Gox creditors. However, referencing the historical experience from late 2022, it's likely that Mt. Gox creditors will soon engage in much larger-scale repurchases, potentially reaching 10 or even 100 times the amount previously sold.
If such buying is confirmed, it would serve as a significant signal for a market bottom.
Strive CEO: Bitcoin Touched 200-Week Moving Average (Fifth Time in History), First Four Times Were Perfect Buying Opportunities
Matt Cole, CEO of asset management firm Strive, stated in an interview with CNBC's Squawk Box Europe that Bitcoin touching the 200-week moving average (the fifth time in history) with the first four times being "perfect buying opportunities." He also emphasized that Bitcoin's fundamentals have "never been better" and views this touch of the 200-week MA as a historic buying opportunity.
Trader Eugene: Has Temporarily Exited Crypto for US Stocks, Won't Try to Catch the Bitcoin Falling Knife
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he has largely exited the cryptocurrency market since May 13th of this year and shifted his primary focus to researching the stock market. He believes that, compared to the current crypto market, the stock market offers greater appeal in terms of research depth, cognitive challenge, and trading/investment opportunities. Based on his assessment of the industry's current state, he expects to maintain this strategy for the foreseeable future, only continuing to follow crypto industry developments without active participation in trading.
Eugene further stated that unless the market presents an extremely attractive risk-reward opportunity, he has no plans to return to the crypto market in the near term, and he does not currently see such conditions materializing. He believes the trajectory of the crypto market is diminishing its appeal as a trading and investment arena, hence he will continue focusing on traditional stock markets for now.
Regarding Mt. Gox, Eugene believes the associated risks are just beginning to surface. He stated that even if Mt. Gox creditors have sold more Bitcoin recently, it merely delays the problem rather than solving it.
Until the high correlation between Mt. Gox and Bitcoin is broken, he is not optimistic about long opportunities for Bitcoin. As for the market bottom location, he admitted he cannot predict it, but he has stopped attempting "catching the falling knife" style dip-buying trades.
Trader Killa: Now is a Generational Buying Opportunity
Trader Killa tweeted during Bitcoin's decline on June 6th, stating that now is a generational buying opportunity. On June 8th, he indicated that BTC has entered the "final phase" and "final extension," and he has deployed 90% of his capital.
Additionally, Killa mentioned that the "protective buy walls" that emerged during last weekend's crash have not been withdrawn, and he believes the likelihood of quickly revisiting these support levels in the short term is low. Killa is a quantitative trader focused on BTC, who previously predicted the peak of this bull cycle in May 2025.
Analyst Darkfost: Bitcoin Has Entered Extreme Undervaluation Zone
According to data from analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin has retraced to fall below the 4th percentile line of the Power Law model, entering an extreme undervaluation zone. Historically, Bitcoin has only traded at such valuation levels 4% of the time. Darkfost emphasized that this is a suitable period for long-term position building, not a short-term price prediction.
Polymarket Data: 72% Probability BTC Falls Below $55k
Latest data on Polymarket shows the probability of BTC falling below $45k is 41%, below $50k is 56%, and below $55k is 72%. The probability of falling below $40k is 31%, and below $35k is only 21%.
Most market participants currently believe the probability of BTC falling to the $35k–$40k range is not high.
