It was reported that Ripple [XRP] got off to a good start to 2026 by securing two regulatory licenses and had also partnered with Aviva Investors.
This was aimed at pushing the XRP Ledger closer to mainstream DeFi adoption by allowing XRPL to host Aviva’s traditional funds in tokenized form.
At the same time, the XRPL network fundamentals remained strong. AMBCrypto found that both the stablecoin market cap and RWA values were at all-time highs, with high capital influx into the ecosystem.
So why is the XRP price expectation still bearish?
In a post on X, popular crypto analyst and trader Ali Martinez predicted that the XRP downtrend was likely to continue. Using a long-term ascending channel, the analyst demonstrated that the channel lows at $0.80 was the next price target.
Glassnode data revealed that the options market leaned bearishly despite XRP’s EU regulatory licenses and the Aviva partnership. The put/call ratio was at 0.17 in September, showing that bullish bets, or calls, far outnumbered the puts.
This situation has dramatically changed over the past two months. At the time of writing, the put/call ratio was at 0.76. It represented a nearly 4.5x increase, although this value was still relatively low by traditional market measures.
For an altcoin, it was relatively high. As the chart showed, the last time the metric reached these levels was during the local market bottom in April 2025. It shows how the metric can also be used as a contrarian signal to catch market bottoms.
This was evidence that traders were expecting a deeper price drop. Coinalyze data backed up this idea. The Funding Rate has been negative for the best part of the past two weeks.
At the same time, the Open Interest has been steadily falling. Together, they captured a bearish futures market sentiment.
The spot ETF flows were positive in February, but the macro picture remained bearish for the crypto market. XRP holders might have to endure more pain in the coming months. A price target of $0.80 was not too extreme.
That does not mean traders should leap into short positions. There were large clusters of short liquidations overhead that could pull XRP higher.
Notably, the $1.80-$2.0 area and the $2.44-$2.62 were magnetic zones that might be retested before another bearish impulse move.
Final Summary
- The XRP long-term price prediction of a drop to $0.80 was a distinct, realistic possibility, albeit not an immediate one.
- This was due to the bearish market sentiment, evidenced by the price action and traders’ positioning in the derivatives market.
