Coinbase Is Back In India—And It Wants 30% Crypto Tax Reconsidered

bitcoinistPubblicato 2025-12-09Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-09

Introduzione

Coinbase has resumed cryptocurrency trading services in India after a two-year absence, following its registration with India’s Financial Intelligence Unit. The exchange initially entered India in 2022 but suspended services in 2023 after losing access to the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), which halted fiat deposits. Users can currently only trade crypto-to-crypto, but fiat on-ramps using Indian Rupees are planned for 2026. Coinbase is advocating for a reconsideration of India’s strict crypto tax policies, which include a 30% tax on profits and a 1% TDS on all transactions. The company has also invested in local exchange CoinDCX, signaling a long-term commitment to the Indian market.

Digital asset exchange Coinbase has restarted crypto trading in India after a two-year absence, with fiat deposits planned to arrive in 2026.

Coinbase Has Returned To India For The First Time Since 2023

As reported by TechCrunch, Coinbase has resumed user onboarding in India for the first time since pulling out of the country back in 2023, more than two years ago. The American crypto exchange ranks as the largest public digital asset company in the world, hosting around $516 billion in assets on its platform.

Initially, the exchange first entered India in 2022, but only a few days after beginning services, it had to suspend UPI payments. UPI, short for Unified Payments Interface, is the most widely adopted real-time digital payments instrument in India. The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) had said shortly after Coinbase’s launch that it wasn’t aware of any crypto exchange using UPI.

With UPI access gone, Coinbase users no longer had a way to purchase digital assets on the platform using fiat. The exchange stopped new user signups in June 2023, with a complete discontinuation of services happening in September 2023.

“We had millions of customers in India, historically, and we took a very clear stance to off-board those customers entirely from overseas entities, where they were domiciled and regulated,” said Coinbase’s APAC director, John O’Loghlen, at India Blockchain Week (IBW). O’Loghlen added that the decision to pull out didn’t come without hesitation.

Fast-forward to 2025, and Coinbase announced in March that it had registered with India’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), allowing it to provide crypto services in the country. The platform opened in early access in October, and now, it has seen a full public launch. So far, users can only access crypto-to-crypto trading, but according to O’Loghlen, a fiat on-ramp is planned to become available next year. This would allow users to buy digital assets using the Indian Rupee (INR).

While India isn’t closed off to cryptocurrencies like its northern neighbor, China, it still has a relatively strict digital-asset regulation regime. The nation collects a 30% tax on investor crypto profits and allows for no offsets against losses. Additionally, it charges a 1% Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) on all transactions, as a method of tracking digital asset activity.

Naturally, this taxation regime isn’t ideal for crypto companies, as it directly affects adoption. O’Loghlen said that Coinbase is hoping the Indian government will relax the tax to make it more convenient for investors to hold digital assets.

Reopening its exchange isn’t the only move that Coinbase has made in the subcontinent recently. As announced on its blog, the platform has made an investment in Indian crypto exchange CoinDCX. “Taken together, these steps reflect a clear commitment: we believe India and its neighbors will help shape the future of the global onchain economy,” noted the post.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $91,800, up more than 7% over the last week.

The price of the coin seems to have recovered from its recent drop | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

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After Aave's Exit and TVL's Sharp Fluctuation, Where Does MegaETH's Valuation Anchor Lie?

Following the withdrawal of Aave and a sharp drop in its Total Value Locked (TVL), the valuation of the high-performance DeFi blockchain MegaETH faces scrutiny. Once a highly anticipated project with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) reaching around $2 billion, MegaETH saw its TVL plummet from a May peak of $245 million to just over $30 million in July, a roughly 70% decline. Its native token, MEGA, currently trades around $0.048 with a market cap of approximately $54 million and an FDV of about $480 million. The report identifies a core vulnerability: MegaETH's TVL was heavily dependent on a single protocol, Aave V3, which at its peak contributed around 90% of the chain's TVL. A significant portion of this capital is attributed to leveraged yield-farming strategies involving stablecoins like USDe. When the profitability of these strategies diminished, capital rapidly exited, exposing the lack of diversified, sustainable activity. Three key mismatches between MegaETH's valuation and its fundamentals are highlighted: 1. **Valuation vs. Real Usage:** With an FDV of ~$4.8B but only ~$1M in annualized protocol revenue and ~2,600 daily active addresses, the valuation appears disconnected from current economic activity. 2. **Token Narrative vs. Ecosystem Reality:** Despite its DeFi narrative, nearly 80% of the chain's recent protocol revenue comes from a trading card game, Monster, not from core DeFi applications like Aave. The chain's native stablecoin, USDM, also shows low trading volume and a declining market cap. 3. **Short-Term Hype vs. Long-Term Delivery:** Initial hype from token generation, blue-chip integrations, and influencer support has faded. Major protocols like Uniswap now hold minimal TVL on the chain, indicating that early capital was largely transient and driven by incentives rather than organic demand. The situation reflects a broader market trend where investors are becoming less tolerant of valuations based on inflated TVL and narrative, demanding clearer evidence of sustainable transactions, revenue, and ecosystem development. While MEGA's price may experience short-term rebounds from market sentiment, a fundamental re-rating likely depends on the team's ability to convert its remaining resources into tangible, user-retaining applications and genuine ecosystem growth.

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After Aave's Exit and TVL's Sharp Fluctuation, Where Does MegaETH's Valuation Anchor Lie?

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Goldman Sachs Report: China's AI Models at an Inflection Point China's open-source/open-weight large language models (LLMs) have reached performance parity with top global proprietary models, according to a Goldman Sachs report. This is driven by architectural innovations and higher parameter efficiency, allowing Chinese models to achieve comparable capabilities at 2%-10% the parameter size and significantly lower cost. The market is evolving into a two-tiered structure: a high-end segment (e.g., GLM5.2, Qwen3.7 Max) with premium pricing and a low-end, price-sensitive segment for global SMEs and individual users. Key points: * **Cost & Performance:** Innovations like Mixture of Experts (MoE) enable high performance with smaller models. Projects like Meituan's LongCat 2.0, trained on domestic hardware, highlight progress in tech self-sufficiency. * **Open-Source Strategy:** Most Chinese players use open-source/open-weight models for flexibility and ecosystem growth. However, Goldman notes this may underreport actual deployment and revenue. A shift toward "open-weight + community license" models with revenue sharing (e.g., MiniMax) could improve monetization. * **Market Shift & Global Expansion:** Enterprise AI adoption is shifting from "token maximization" to "ROI-first." International expansion, especially in non-US markets, is a major growth driver. Chinese models are increasingly available on global platforms like AWS Bedrock and Microsoft Copilot. * **Competitive Landscape:** Using a framework based on pricing power, cost advantage, and financial strength, Goldman identifies **Zhipu AI and DeepSeek** as the strongest in foundational text models, and **ByteDance** as the leader in multimodal/video generation. The report maintains Buy ratings on MiniMax and Kuaishou. * **Market Growth:** China's AI model API and subscription revenue is projected to grow from an estimated ¥35 billion in 2026 to ¥879 billion by 2030.

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Goldman Sachs In-Depth Report: Who Will Be the Long-Term Winners in China's AI Large Model Industry?

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Goldman Sachs Deep Dive Report: Who Will Become the Long-Term Winners in China's AI Large Model Industry?

Goldman Sachs Report: Who Will Be the Long-Term Winners in China's AI Large Model Industry? China's AI large model sector is at a historic inflection point. Goldman Sachs argues that the intelligence of Chinese open-source/open-weight models is approaching top global proprietary models. Rapid adoption by domestic enterprises and global SMEs is creating a data flywheel effect that will further drive model iteration. The evolution is summarized as moving from "DeepSeek's cost-efficiency moment last year to GLM's model-intelligence moment this year." Chinese models achieve near-state-of-the-art performance at significantly lower cost, primarily due to architectural innovations like Mixture of Experts (MoE) and higher parameter efficiency. Models like DeepSeek V4 Pro (1.6T params), GLM5.2 (0.7T), and MiniMax M3 (0.4T) are much smaller than global leaders. Recent advancements in coding capability are attributed to better data curation and RLHF. Landmarks like Meituan's LongCat 2.0, trained fully on domestic AI chips, demonstrate progress in hardware stack independence. The market is forming a "two-tiered structure." The high-end tier (e.g., GLM5.2, Alibaba's Qwen3.7 Max) prices around $1 per million tokens, about 10-25% of US top models, with estimated inference gross margins of 10-20%. The low-end tier (priced as low as $0.06-$0.2 per million tokens) targets price-sensitive global SMEs and individuals. MiniMax derives 60-70% of revenue overseas. Goldman forecasts China's AI model API/subscription revenue to grow from an estimated RMB 35bn in 2026 to RMB 879bn by 2030. Most Chinese players adopt open-source/open-weight strategies for deployment flexibility and community feedback, though this limits monetization as deployments on third-party platforms (e.g., Alibaba Cloud) may not generate direct revenue. A shift towards "open-weight + community license" models with revenue-sharing agreements (like MiniMax's approach) could improve unit economics. International expansion, particularly in non-US markets, is the key growth driver. The global enterprise AI paradigm is shifting from "token maximization" to "ROI prioritization." Chinese models are already hosted on major global platforms like AWS Bedrock and are under consideration for integration into Microsoft Copilot. Using a competitive framework based on pricing power, cost advantage, and financial strength, Goldman identifies the strongest players: In foundational text models, Zhipu AI (initiated coverage) and DeepSeek lead. In multimodal/video generation, ByteDance's Seed is the frontrunner, with Kuaishou's Kling and MiniMax's Hailuo also well-positioned. Goldman maintains a Buy rating on MiniMax, citing its attractive valuation.

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Goldman Sachs Deep Dive Report: Who Will Become the Long-Term Winners in China's AI Large Model Industry?

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