Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is Stablecoin Leader CRCL Worth Buying? Why Can't High-Growth Earnings Drive the Stock Price?

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2025-12-09Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-09

Introduzione

"Circle (NYSE: CRCL), the issuer of USDC, has sparked intense debate in the crypto community following its Q3 2025 earnings report. Despite reporting strong growth—revenue up 66% YoY to $740 million and net income of $214 million, driven by a 108% increase in USDC circulation—its stock price fell significantly post-earnings and remains near its IPO price of $64. The core disagreement revolves around Circle’s business model and sustainability. Critics, including Jiang Zhuorer, argue that Circle operates like a bank, earning primarily through interest on reserve assets (mainly U.S. Treasuries), but is highly vulnerable to interest rate cuts. They highlight that ~60% of revenue is paid to distributors like Coinbase, leaving thin margins that could turn negative in a low-rate environment. They also warn of competition from traditional financial giants like JPMorgan and potential policy changes. Proponents, such as BTCdayu and qinbafrank, counter that Circle is building a long-term, network-driven infrastructure play. They compare it to Amazon or JD.com, arguing that current profit-sharing is a strategic cost to achieve scale, compliance advantage, and eventual market dominance in a winner-take-all industry. They believe USDC’s合规 (compliance) edge and institutional trust will drive adoption to multi-trillion dollars, outweighing interest rate risks. Short-term concerns include significant post-IPO lockup expirations adding selling pressure, and structural barriers like U.S. tax...

Original / Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author / DingDang (@XiaMiPP)

Recently, the Chinese X community has sparked a fierce debate around "Is Circle (NYSE: CRCL) worth buying?", with the court of public opinion clearly split into two major camps. One side sees it as a value stock with significant institutional红利 (dividends/benefits) in the stablecoin赛道 (track/sector), while the other frequently questions the fragility of its profit model and potential cyclical risks. The交锋 (clash/exchange) of views reflects the vastly different judgment logics and expectation levels the current market holds for innovative projects.

Based on a large amount of public discussion and rational analysis within the community, Odaily Planet Daily梳理 (sorts out/compiles) the core arguments and reasoning paths of both sides, attempting to present the deeper structural disagreements behind the controversy beyond emotions and stances.

Background Brief

Since its listing on the NYSE on June 5, 2025, Circle (NYSE: CRCL) has experienced a complete, typical price curve of a "narrative-driven asset": from an IPO price of $64, it quickly rose to a阶段性 (phase/period) high of $298.9 in a short time, then gradually declined, and around November 20, 2025, returned near its IPO price, touching a low of $64.9, recently rebounding to around $83.9.

On November 12, 2025, CRCL announced its first full quarterly (Q3) earnings report post-IPO: total revenue of $740 million, a year-on-year increase of 66%; net profit of $214 million, EPS $0.64, significantly exceeding market expectations. The most crucial driving factor came from the surge in USDC circulation from $35.5 billion in the same period last year to $73.7 billion (+108%),以及 (as well as) the rise in reserve asset yields in a high-interest-rate environment.

However, the stock price fell 11.4% on the first day after the earnings release and累计 (accumulatively) fell 20% over the week. Key pain points included high分销费用 (distribution fees) ($448 million, 60% of revenue), operating expenses eroding profits, a high proportion of non-recurring income (71% from fair value changes in investments),以及 selling pressure from the lock-up expiration. According to SEC filings, the IPO lock-up period ended after the Q3 earnings report, with a potentially huge number of shares becoming eligible for sale starting November 14.

围绕 (Surrounding/Regarding) these facts, Odaily Planet Daily has compiled the differing views, such as those from @0xNing0x, Jiang Zhuo'er, @Phyrex_Ni, @BTCdayu, @qinbafrank, for readers to compare and analyze.

I. Is the Profit Model Sustainable: Is CRCL a Bank or Financial Infrastructure?

Jiang Zhuo'er believes that CRCL's profit source is essentially "earning the interest rate spread": users exchange money for USDC, Circle allocates these funds to low-risk assets like U.S. Treasuries, earns interest income, then deducts operating costs and channel profit-sharing.

But the problem is, CRCL's profit distribution structure is extremely unfavorable to itself. According to the agreement, about 61% of the profit must be shared with Coinbase, and Coinbase also holds a 22% share of USDC, with 100% of this portion's收益 (收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益极难在短时间内复制 Circle 所已经完成的合规路径、渠道网络与机构信任积累。

Domande pertinenti

QWhat are the main arguments for and against investing in Circle (CRCL) according to the article?

AThe main arguments against investing include concerns over its profit-sharing model with Coinbase (which takes about 61% of profits), high dependency on interest rates from reserve assets making it vulnerable in a rate-cutting cycle, potential competition from traditional financial giants like JPMorgan, and short-term selling pressure from the lock-up period expiration. The main arguments for investing are that CRCL is strategically sacrificing short-term profits to build scale, network effects, and user trust; it is positioned to benefit from future stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity; and its compliance and partnerships form a strong moat that could lead to long-term dominance in the compliant stablecoin space.

QHow does Circle's (CRCL) profit model work, and why is it considered controversial?

ACircle's profit model primarily relies on earning interest from the reserve assets (like U.S. Treasuries) backing its USDC stablecoin. The controversy stems from the high distribution costs, where approximately 61% of the profits are shared with distribution partners like Coinbase. Critics argue this leaves CRCL with a very small portion of the actual profits, making the model fragile, especially if interest rates decline significantly. Supporters view the profit-sharing as a strategic cost to acquire market share and build a dominant network effect in the stablecoin industry.

QWhat is the impact of interest rate changes on Circle's (CRCL) profitability?

AInterest rate changes have a significant impact on CRCL's profitability. The company's income is highly dependent on the yield from its reserve assets. In a high-interest-rate environment, this generates substantial revenue. However, critics warn that a transition to a rate-cutting cycle could severely compress CRCL's profit margins. If rates fall to around 2% while operational costs remain near 1%, the model could become unprofitable after accounting for distribution partner shares. Supporters argue that growth in USDC's circulation size could outweigh the negative impact of gradually falling rates.

QWhat are the key competitive threats to Circle (CRCL) and USDC mentioned in the debate?

AThe key competitive threats discussed are twofold. First, traditional financial giants like JPMorgan entering the stablecoin market with their substantial resources, credit backing, and potential to use subsidies to gain market share. Second, the potential for regulatory changes that could erode Circle's current advantages or for competitors to find ways to bypass existing restrictions on paying interest to users. Proponents of CRCL counter that its deep compliance, established trust, network effects, and open-network design create a significant moat that closed-loop institutional solutions from banks cannot easily overcome.

QWhat short-term trading concern is highlighted regarding CRCL's stock price?

AA major short-term trading concern highlighted is the significant selling pressure from the expiration of the IPO lock-up period. The lock-up for insiders, founders, employees, and early investors ended after the Q3 earnings report, potentially releasing a large number of shares into the market. This sudden increase in supply creates a risk of downward pressure on the stock price in the near term, leading some traders to adopt a wait-and-see approach until this uncertainty is resolved.

Letture associate

a16z: How Blockchain Fills the Gaps in AI Agent Identity, Payments, and Trust?

AI Agents are rapidly evolving from tools into autonomous economic participants, but they lack standardized ways to prove identity, authorization, and payment across environments. Blockchain infrastructure addresses these gaps by providing portable identities via wallets, programmable payments through stablecoins, and auditable transaction records on public ledgers. Key challenges include the absence of a universal identity layer (like "KYA" – Know Your Agent) for non-human entities, governance risks when AI systems control critical resources, and the need for trustless payment systems for agent-to-agent commerce. Emerging solutions include on-chain agent registries, encrypted credentials, and crypto-native toolkits that enable delegated authority and verifiable execution. Stablecoins and embedded payment protocols (e.g., x402) are enabling a new class of "headless merchants" where agents transact without human intervention. Trust shifts from manual oversight to cryptographic verification, as scalability demands automated accountability. Ultimately, blockchain allows agents to operate as permissionless economic actors while preserving user control through programmable constraints and transparent governance.

marsbit30 min fa

a16z: How Blockchain Fills the Gaps in AI Agent Identity, Payments, and Trust?

marsbit30 min fa

Exploring Physical World AGI with "Visual Reasoning", ElorianAI Raises $55 Million

ElorianAI, co-founded by ex-Google AI expert Andrew Dai and former AI specialist Yinfei Yang, has raised $55 million in early funding to develop next-generation AI systems with advanced visual reasoning capabilities. While current large models excel in text-based tasks like programming and math, they perform poorly in visual reasoning—even top models like Gemini only match a 3-year-old’s ability in basic visual benchmarks. The key limitation lies in the architecture of current vision-language models (VLMs), which first convert visual inputs into text before reasoning, losing critical spatial and structural information. ElorianAI aims to build a native multimodal model that processes and reasons directly in visual space, enabling deeper understanding of physical relationships, constraints, and environments. The company plans to release a state-of-the-art visual reasoning model by 2026, with potential applications in robotics, disaster management, engineering, healthcare, and AI hardware. By using high-quality, diverse, and synthetically generated data, ElorianAI intends to create models that don’t just perceive but truly understand and reason about the physical world—bringing us closer to visual AGI.

marsbit59 min fa

Exploring Physical World AGI with "Visual Reasoning", ElorianAI Raises $55 Million

marsbit59 min fa

This Time, OpenAI Eliminated 90% of Human Designers

OpenAI's latest release, GPT-Image 2, marks a paradigm shift in AI-generated imagery, moving beyond aesthetic quality to logical reasoning and contextual understanding. The model introduces a "thinking mode," where it performs background reasoning—such as mathematical calculations and geographic knowledge—before generating images. This enables highly accurate and context-aware outputs, like a livestream overlay showing precise distance metrics or a brand-aligned poster design. The model excels in rendering Chinese text with remarkable accuracy and aesthetic quality, a significant improvement over previous versions. It supports multi-turn conversational editing via the new Responses API, allowing iterative refinements similar to chatting with a large language model. While GPT-Image 2 demonstrates unprecedented capabilities in commercial applications like marketing material and illustration—potentially displacing many human designers due to its cost efficiency—it still has limitations. Minor artifacts in fine text details persist, and complex prompts can cause extended processing times. Additionally, the technology raises ethical concerns around deepfakes and digital trust. Overall, GPT-Image 2 transitions AI image generation from a novelty to a powerful production-ready tool, redefining industry standards and pushing the boundary of what’s possible in visual AI.

marsbit1 h fa

This Time, OpenAI Eliminated 90% of Human Designers

marsbit1 h fa

20 Billion Valuation, Alibaba and Tencent Competing to Invest, Whose Money Will Liang Wenfeng Take?

DeepSeek, an AI startup founded by Liang Wenfeng, is reportedly in talks with Alibaba and Tencent for an external funding round that could value the company at over $20 billion. This marks a significant shift, as DeepSeek had previously relied solely on funding from its parent company,幻方量化 (Huanfang Quantitative), and had resisted external investment. The potential valuation would place DeepSeek among the top-tier AI model companies in China, comparable to competitors like MoonDark (valued at ~$18 billion) and ahead of recently listed firms like MiniMax and Zhipu. The funding—which could range from $600 million (for a 3% stake) to $2 billion (for 10%)—is seen as a move to secure resources for model development, retain talent, and support infrastructure needs, particularly as competition in inference models and AI agents intensifies. Both Alibaba and Tencent are eager to invest, not only for financial returns but also to integrate DeepSeek into their broader AI ecosystems. However, DeepSeek’s leadership is cautious about maintaining independence and may prefer financial investors over strategic ones to avoid being locked into a specific tech ecosystem. Alternative options, such as state-backed funds, offer longer-term capital and policy support but may come with slower decision-making and potential constraints on global expansion. With competing AI firms accelerating their IPO plans, DeepSeek’s window for securing optimal terms may be narrowing. The final decision will reflect a trade-off between capital, resources, and strategic independence.

marsbit1 h fa

20 Billion Valuation, Alibaba and Tencent Competing to Invest, Whose Money Will Liang Wenfeng Take?

marsbit1 h fa

After Losing 97% of Its Market Value, iQiyi Attempts to Use AI to Forcefully Extend Its Lifespan

After losing 97% of its market value since its 2018 peak, iQiyi is aggressively pivoting to AI in a desperate attempt to survive. At its 2026 World Conference, CEO Gong Yu announced an "AI Artist Library" with over 100 virtual performers and a new AIGC platform, "NaDou Pro," promising faster production and lower costs. This shift comes as the company faces severe financial distress: its market cap sits near delisting thresholds at $1.36 billion, with significant losses, declining membership revenue, and depleted cash flow. The AI strategy has sparked controversy. Top actors have issued legal threats against unauthorized digital replicas, while in Hengdian, over 134,000 background actors are seeing their already scarce job opportunities vanish as AI replaces them for background roles. iQiyi's move represents a fundamental shift from being a high-cost content buyer to a landlord" to becoming a "platform capitalist" that transfers production risk to creators. This contrasts with competitors like Douyin (TikTok's Chinese counterpart), which is investing heavily in *real* actor-led short dramas, betting that authentic human connection retains users better than AI-generated content. The article draws a parallel to the 1920s transition to "talkies," which made cinema musicians obsolete but ultimately enriched the art form. In contrast, iQiyi's AI drive is framed not as an artistic evolution but as a cost-cutting measure that could degrade storytelling, replacing genuine human emotion with algorithmically calculated stimulation and potentially numbing audiences' capacity for empathy. The core question remains: can a company focused solely on financial survival preserve the art of storytelling?

marsbit1 h fa

After Losing 97% of Its Market Value, iQiyi Attempts to Use AI to Forcefully Extend Its Lifespan

marsbit1 h fa

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