Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is Stablecoin Leader CRCL Worth Buying? Why Can't High-Growth Earnings Drive the Stock Price?

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2025-12-09Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-09

Introduzione

"Circle (NYSE: CRCL), the issuer of USDC, has sparked intense debate in the crypto community following its Q3 2025 earnings report. Despite reporting strong growth—revenue up 66% YoY to $740 million and net income of $214 million, driven by a 108% increase in USDC circulation—its stock price fell significantly post-earnings and remains near its IPO price of $64. The core disagreement revolves around Circle’s business model and sustainability. Critics, including Jiang Zhuorer, argue that Circle operates like a bank, earning primarily through interest on reserve assets (mainly U.S. Treasuries), but is highly vulnerable to interest rate cuts. They highlight that ~60% of revenue is paid to distributors like Coinbase, leaving thin margins that could turn negative in a low-rate environment. They also warn of competition from traditional financial giants like JPMorgan and potential policy changes. Proponents, such as BTCdayu and qinbafrank, counter that Circle is building a long-term, network-driven infrastructure play. They compare it to Amazon or JD.com, arguing that current profit-sharing is a strategic cost to achieve scale, compliance advantage, and eventual market dominance in a winner-take-all industry. They believe USDC’s合规 (compliance) edge and institutional trust will drive adoption to multi-trillion dollars, outweighing interest rate risks. Short-term concerns include significant post-IPO lockup expirations adding selling pressure, and structural barriers like U.S. tax...

Original / Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author / DingDang (@XiaMiPP)

Recently, the Chinese X community has sparked a fierce debate around "Is Circle (NYSE: CRCL) worth buying?", with the court of public opinion clearly split into two major camps. One side sees it as a value stock with significant institutional红利 (dividends/benefits) in the stablecoin赛道 (track/sector), while the other frequently questions the fragility of its profit model and potential cyclical risks. The交锋 (clash/exchange) of views reflects the vastly different judgment logics and expectation levels the current market holds for innovative projects.

Based on a large amount of public discussion and rational analysis within the community, Odaily Planet Daily梳理 (sorts out/compiles) the core arguments and reasoning paths of both sides, attempting to present the deeper structural disagreements behind the controversy beyond emotions and stances.

Background Brief

Since its listing on the NYSE on June 5, 2025, Circle (NYSE: CRCL) has experienced a complete, typical price curve of a "narrative-driven asset": from an IPO price of $64, it quickly rose to a阶段性 (phase/period) high of $298.9 in a short time, then gradually declined, and around November 20, 2025, returned near its IPO price, touching a low of $64.9, recently rebounding to around $83.9.

On November 12, 2025, CRCL announced its first full quarterly (Q3) earnings report post-IPO: total revenue of $740 million, a year-on-year increase of 66%; net profit of $214 million, EPS $0.64, significantly exceeding market expectations. The most crucial driving factor came from the surge in USDC circulation from $35.5 billion in the same period last year to $73.7 billion (+108%),以及 (as well as) the rise in reserve asset yields in a high-interest-rate environment.

However, the stock price fell 11.4% on the first day after the earnings release and累计 (accumulatively) fell 20% over the week. Key pain points included high分销费用 (distribution fees) ($448 million, 60% of revenue), operating expenses eroding profits, a high proportion of non-recurring income (71% from fair value changes in investments),以及 selling pressure from the lock-up expiration. According to SEC filings, the IPO lock-up period ended after the Q3 earnings report, with a potentially huge number of shares becoming eligible for sale starting November 14.

围绕 (Surrounding/Regarding) these facts, Odaily Planet Daily has compiled the differing views, such as those from @0xNing0x, Jiang Zhuo'er, @Phyrex_Ni, @BTCdayu, @qinbafrank, for readers to compare and analyze.

I. Is the Profit Model Sustainable: Is CRCL a Bank or Financial Infrastructure?

Jiang Zhuo'er believes that CRCL's profit source is essentially "earning the interest rate spread": users exchange money for USDC, Circle allocates these funds to low-risk assets like U.S. Treasuries, earns interest income, then deducts operating costs and channel profit-sharing.

But the problem is, CRCL's profit distribution structure is extremely unfavorable to itself. According to the agreement, about 61% of the profit must be shared with Coinbase, and Coinbase also holds a 22% share of USDC, with 100% of this portion's收益 (收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益极难在短时间内复制 Circle 所已经完成的合规路径、渠道网络与机构信任积累。

Domande pertinenti

QWhat are the main arguments for and against investing in Circle (CRCL) according to the article?

AThe main arguments against investing include concerns over its profit-sharing model with Coinbase (which takes about 61% of profits), high dependency on interest rates from reserve assets making it vulnerable in a rate-cutting cycle, potential competition from traditional financial giants like JPMorgan, and short-term selling pressure from the lock-up period expiration. The main arguments for investing are that CRCL is strategically sacrificing short-term profits to build scale, network effects, and user trust; it is positioned to benefit from future stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity; and its compliance and partnerships form a strong moat that could lead to long-term dominance in the compliant stablecoin space.

QHow does Circle's (CRCL) profit model work, and why is it considered controversial?

ACircle's profit model primarily relies on earning interest from the reserve assets (like U.S. Treasuries) backing its USDC stablecoin. The controversy stems from the high distribution costs, where approximately 61% of the profits are shared with distribution partners like Coinbase. Critics argue this leaves CRCL with a very small portion of the actual profits, making the model fragile, especially if interest rates decline significantly. Supporters view the profit-sharing as a strategic cost to acquire market share and build a dominant network effect in the stablecoin industry.

QWhat is the impact of interest rate changes on Circle's (CRCL) profitability?

AInterest rate changes have a significant impact on CRCL's profitability. The company's income is highly dependent on the yield from its reserve assets. In a high-interest-rate environment, this generates substantial revenue. However, critics warn that a transition to a rate-cutting cycle could severely compress CRCL's profit margins. If rates fall to around 2% while operational costs remain near 1%, the model could become unprofitable after accounting for distribution partner shares. Supporters argue that growth in USDC's circulation size could outweigh the negative impact of gradually falling rates.

QWhat are the key competitive threats to Circle (CRCL) and USDC mentioned in the debate?

AThe key competitive threats discussed are twofold. First, traditional financial giants like JPMorgan entering the stablecoin market with their substantial resources, credit backing, and potential to use subsidies to gain market share. Second, the potential for regulatory changes that could erode Circle's current advantages or for competitors to find ways to bypass existing restrictions on paying interest to users. Proponents of CRCL counter that its deep compliance, established trust, network effects, and open-network design create a significant moat that closed-loop institutional solutions from banks cannot easily overcome.

QWhat short-term trading concern is highlighted regarding CRCL's stock price?

AA major short-term trading concern highlighted is the significant selling pressure from the expiration of the IPO lock-up period. The lock-up for insiders, founders, employees, and early investors ended after the Q3 earnings report, potentially releasing a large number of shares into the market. This sudden increase in supply creates a risk of downward pressure on the stock price in the near term, leading some traders to adopt a wait-and-see approach until this uncertainty is resolved.

Letture associate

Trump to Conduct 'Final Interview for Fed Chair', Hassett Not Yet a 'Done Deal'

The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is entering its final stage. Although White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is currently the frontrunner, President Trump has initiated a final round of interviews, indicating the outcome is not yet certain. Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are scheduled to interview former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh this week, among other candidates including Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. A key concern among some Wall Street investors is that Hassett, perceived as close to the president, might pursue overly aggressive interest rate cuts, potentially unsettling markets. Hassett has recently emphasized the importance of central bank independence and data-driven decisions. The decision is expected in early January. This process occurs against a backdrop of Trump's longstanding criticism of current Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates more quickly. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week.

深潮2 min fa

Trump to Conduct 'Final Interview for Fed Chair', Hassett Not Yet a 'Done Deal'

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Fed Rate Cut Tonight Almost Certain, This Meeting More Like a 'Political Pressure Test'!

This week's Federal Reserve policy meeting is set to be one of the most contentious in recent years. With key economic data missing due to a 43-day U.S. government shutdown, the meeting has evolved into a stress test of the Fed’s independence and decision-making process. Market expectations for a rate cut have surged from 30% to 97%, reflecting both data uncertainty and growing political influence. Internally, the Fed is deeply divided, with a 4-4 split among key officials between holding rates and cutting. The dot plot shows a rare "bimodal distribution," with 7 officials favoring no change and 8 supporting a 50-basis-point cut. Doves point to a weakening labor market—unemployment rose to 4.3% in August, a four-year high—while hawks emphasize persistent inflation, with core PCE at 2.7%, above the 2% target. Political pressure has intensified, notably through appointments like Stephen Milan, who voted for a deeper cut just one day into his role, aligning with former President Trump’s public demands. The upcoming Fed leadership transition adds further uncertainty, as officials may be positioning for future roles. Amid data gaps and political interference, the Fed faces a complex risk-management dilemma: balancing concerns over slowing employment against inflation risks and soaring government debt interest costs. Communication challenges are heightened by internal divisions, forcing the Fed to rely more on high-frequency and alternative data. This meeting may mark a shift toward a new monetary policy framework where data scarcity and political pressure become persistent challenges to the Fed’s independence.

marsbit37 min fa

Fed Rate Cut Tonight Almost Certain, This Meeting More Like a 'Political Pressure Test'!

marsbit37 min fa

Bitcoin firm Twenty One Capital drops 20% on first day of trading

Twenty One Capital, a new Bitcoin-focused company, saw its shares drop 20% on its first day of trading after merging with a SPAC. The stock opened at $10.74 and closed at $11.42, later rising slightly after-hours. Backed by Tether, Bitfinex, and SoftBank, the company holds over 43,500 BTC worth around $4 billion. CEO Jack Mallers stated it is "not a treasury company" and plans to build a business around Bitcoin products in brokerage, exchange, and lending, though no specific plans were revealed. The debut reflects broader challenges for crypto-related stocks amid market declines.

cointelegraph38 min fa

Bitcoin firm Twenty One Capital drops 20% on first day of trading

cointelegraph38 min fa

Abu Dhabi Steps Up Crypto Regulation: Tether, Circle Secure Major Approvals

Tether and Circle, the issuers of the world's two largest stablecoins, have secured significant regulatory approvals in Abu Dhabi. Tether’s USDT has been recognized as an Accepted Fiat-Referenced Token (ARFT) by the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), expanding its presence to include several additional blockchains like Aptos, Celo, and TON. This allows authorized entities in ADGM to conduct regulated activities involving USDT. Separately, Circle received a Financial Services Permission (FSP) license, enabling it to operate as a Money Services Provider. These approvals reinforce Abu Dhabi’s ambition to become a global hub for compliant digital finance. The news comes amid a period of renewed growth in the stablecoin market cap after a brief decline in late 2025.

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Abu Dhabi Steps Up Crypto Regulation: Tether, Circle Secure Major Approvals

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Vivek Ramaswamy's Strive to raise $500M to buy Bitcoin

Strive Asset Management, co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, has announced a $500 million stock sales program to raise funds for purchasing Bitcoin and Bitcoin-related products. The firm, currently the 14th largest corporate holder of Bitcoin with 7,525 BTC worth approximately $694 million, intends to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including expanding its BTC treasury and acquiring income-generating assets. This strategy mirrors the approach pioneered by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy. Following the announcement, Strive’s shares (ASST) rose 3.6% to $1.02, more than doubling since the start of the year. The company also recently urged index provider MSCI to reconsider excluding Bitcoin-heavy firms from passive investment products.

cointelegraph1 h fa

Vivek Ramaswamy's Strive to raise $500M to buy Bitcoin

cointelegraph1 h fa

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