Odaily Invited Market Analyst Conaldo, Master of Financial Statistics from Columbia University, USA, focused on quantitative trading of US stocks during university and gradually expanded to digital assets such as Bitcoin, building a systematic quantitative trading model and risk control system through practical experience; possesses keen data insight into market fluctuations and is committed to continuous development in the professional trading field, pursuing steady returns; will delve into BTC technical, macro, and capital changes weekly, review and display practical strategies, and preview major events worth attention in the near future for reference.
Core Summary:
• From a macro technical perspective (see Figure 3 below): In the Bitcoin daily chart, the upward trend line representing the long-term bull market (since the end of 2022) and the downward trend line defining the recent correction (since the high in October 2025) are about to converge. The market is currently in a repair and fluctuation period after breaking the long-term trend. Bitcoin price is under dual pressure. Before the price breaks through this dual pressure with strong volume, all upward movements can only be considered as rebounds in a bearish pattern. The effective breakthrough of these two key trend lines will be the ultimate basis for judging the medium-term direction of the market.
• Core View Verification: The core judgment proposed last week that "the market will most likely transition into a volatile adjustment pattern" is highly consistent with the actual market movement. The bulls and bears repeatedly contested the $87,500~$89,000 area, and the mid-week adjustment low of $84,456 had a relative error rate of about 1.18% compared to the predicted support area upper limit of $83,500.
• Strategy Execution Effectiveness Verification: Last week's trading strictly followed the established strategy, successfully completing four operations, with a cumulative return of 2.14%.
The following will review the market prediction, strategy execution, and specific trading process in detail.
I. Bitcoin Market Review Last Week (12.15~12.21)
1. Last Week's Trend Prediction and Operation Strategy Review:
Last week's forward-looking analysis clearly stated: The market will most likely transition into a volatile adjustment pattern. Among them, the $87,500~$89,000 area was defined as the key observation area. The outcome of the contest between bulls and bears here will directly determine the short-term direction of the market. Special attention should be paid: if this area is effectively broken, it will also directly affect the subsequent intensity and depth of the coin price adjustment. The following is the strategy review and analysis.
1. Market Trend Prediction Review:
• Core Pressure Level: First pressure at the $92,500~$94,500 area; second pressure at the $96,500~$98,500 area.
• Core Support Level: First support at the $87,500~$89,000 area; second support at the $80,000~$83,500 area.
2. Operation Strategy Review:
• Medium-term Strategy: Maintain a medium-term position (short) of about 65%.
• Short-term Strategy: To cope with the market trend, we initially drafted two short-term operation plans, A/B. Based on the actual evolution of the market, we ultimately executed Plan B as the core strategy.
• Open Position: If the coin price breaks below the $87,500~$89,000 area and is confirmed, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk Control: Stop loss set above $89,000.
• Close Position: When the coin price falls to the $80,000~$83,500 area and shows resistance, close all short positions to take profits.
2. Last week, four short-term operations were successfully completed according to the plan (Figure 1), achieving a cumulative return of 2.14%. Specific transaction details and review are as follows:
Bitcoin 30-minute K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)
Figure 1
1. Transaction Details Summary:
2. Short-term Trading Review:
• First Transaction (Profit 0.73%): We strictly adhered to the idea of "effectively breaking through key points and going short顺势做空". When the trigger condition was met, the spread trading model simultaneously issued a top signal. Based on this, we decisively established a 30% short position and finally took profits when the price fell near the previous low area.
• Second and Third Transactions (Cumulative Profit 1.41%): Based on the operation mode of "selling short when rebounding to the core pressure area meets resistance". When the coin price hit the $87,500~$89,000 area and encountered resistance,叠加两个模型发出的共振信号, these two transactions were successfully completed.
• Fourth Transaction (Profit 0): The logic for opening this position was consistent with the previous two transactions. It must be特别强调 that in this transaction, we strictly executed the principle of "when the floating profit reaches 1%, immediately move the stop loss to the opening cost price", resulting in the transaction being closed at breakeven.
II. Quantitative Technical Analysis: Based on Multi-Model and Multi-Dimensional Operation
Combining last week's market operation, the author will conduct an in-depth analysis of the evolution of Bitcoin's internal structure using comprehensive multi-dimensional analysis models.
Bitcoin Weekly K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Sentiment Quantitative Model)
Figure 2
1. As shown in (Figure 2), analysis from the weekly chart:
• Momentum Quantitative Model: After last week's adjustment, the two momentum indicator lines continue to run below the zero axis. Although the rebound in previous weeks prevented the negative momentum bars from expanding significantly, the current market structure is still weak, and we need to be警惕 of the risk of further release of adjustment pressure.
Momentum Quantitative Model Indicates: Coin price decline index: High
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: Blue sentiment line value 50.46, strength zero; yellow sentiment line value 23.16, strength zero, peak value is 0.
Sentiment Quantitative Model Indicates: Coin price pressure and support index: Neutral
• Digital Monitoring Model: The chart shows that the coin price has been below the bull-bear (yellow-blue line) dividing line for 5 weeks, increasing the probability of an effective break. Short-term bottom digital signals (above 9) have not yet appeared.
The above data预示: Bitcoin is in a downward trend, entering a bear market on the weekly level, beware of adjustment risks.
Bitcoin Daily K-line chart:
Figure 3
2. As shown in (Figure 3), analysis from the daily chart:
• Momentum Quantitative Model: In last week's行情, the two momentum lines below the zero axis went through a反复交叉 process of "golden cross—dead cross—golden cross", trading volume did not放大, positive momentum bar growth was not obvious.
Momentum Quantitative Model Indicates: Bulls and bears are fiercely contesting for market control, bullish momentum is weak.
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: After last week's daily close, blue sentiment line value 17, strength zero; yellow sentiment line value 45, strength zero.
Sentiment Quantitative Model Indicates: Pressure and support index: Neutral
The above data提示: The daily level is in a bear market, short-term market movements will still be反复.
III. This Week's Market Prediction (12.22~12.28)
1. The market is expected to mainly present a wide-range volatile pattern this week. The core observation interval is $89,500~$91,000. The outcome of the contest in this area will determine the short-term direction:
• If effectively broken below: It will mean the adjustment intensity strengthens, the expected adjustment range will expand, and the cycle will相应延长.
• If effectively held above: The market is expected to continue its volatile rebound, but the rebound space is expected to be relatively limited.
2. Core Pressure Levels:
• First Pressure Area: $89,500~$91,000 area
• Second Pressure Area: $93,000~$94,500 area
• Important Pressure Area: Around $97,000
3. Core Support Levels:
• First Support Level: $86,500~$87,500 area
• Second Support Level: $83,500~$84,500 area
• Important Support Level: Around $80,000.
IV. This Week's Operation Strategy (Excluding Sudden News Impact)(12.22~12.28)
1. Medium-term Strategy: Maintain a medium-term position (short) of about 65%.
2. Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of the position, set stop loss points, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and pressure levels. (Using 30 minutes as the operation cycle).
3. Focus on observing the contest and outcome between bulls and bears over the $89,500~$91,000 area. To应对 the market行情, we have drafted two short-term operation plans, A/B:
• Plan A: If this area is effectively held above:
• Open Position: If the coin price rebounds to the $93,000~$94,500 area and shows signs of resistance, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk Control: Short stop loss set above $96,000.
• Close Position: When the coin price falls to the $89,500~$91,000 area and shows resistance, close all short positions to take profits.
• Plan B: If this area is effectively broken below:
• Open Position: If the coin price breaks below this area and is confirmed, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk Control: Stop loss set above $92,000.
• Close Position: When the coin price falls to the $83,500~$84,500 area and shows resistance, consider partially or fully closing the position to take profits.
V. Special Notes
1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop loss level.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop loss to the opening cost price (breakeven point) to ensure principal safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop loss to the position of 1% profit.
4. Continuous Tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit the coin price makes, move the stop loss同步 by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in existing profits.
(Note: The above 1% profit trigger threshold can be flexibly adjusted by investors according to their own risk preferences and标的 volatility.)
VI. This Week's Macro Outlook and Key Events (12.22~12.28|Christmas Week)
1. Christmas holiday compresses trading hours, liquidity significantly decreases
US stocks will close early on Wednesday and be closed all day Thursday this week. The holiday factor combined with year-end settlement results in overall lower market liquidity. Prices are more easily driven by sentiment and one-sided funds. Beware of "false breakouts" and amplified short-term fluctuations under low trading volume.
2. Fed Chair nomination expectations heat up, policy continuity becomes market focus
The market is watching whether Trump will announce the next Fed Chair nominee during the Christmas holiday. Currently, Kevin Hassett is seen as the领先 probability nominee, and his policy stance is considered偏向 "predictable gradual adjustment".
(If the nomination is announced, it will help stabilize interest rate expectations and risk appetite in the short term; if an unexpected candidate emerges, it may cause阶段性波动 in interest rates and the US dollar.)
3. US Q3 data finale, verifying the "soft landing" narrative
The revised US Q3 GDP, personal consumption expenditure, and core PCE data released on Tuesday will be used to confirm whether economic resilience and the inflation path are consistent with previous judgments.
(If the revisions are mild, the market can more easily maintain its pricing for next year's interest rate cut path; if there are significant upward revisions, it may重新抬升 long-term rates.)
4. Employment data as a marginal observation indicator at year-end
The initial jobless claims released on Wednesday, although not具有趋势性意义, remain an auxiliary signal for observing whether the labor market is loosening around the holidays.
(Currently more偏向 "stable rather than deteriorating", the impact on the market is expected to be limited.)
5. BOJ dynamics provide a reference for global liquidity
BOJ Governor Ueda's speech and the November unemployment rate data will continue to affect the market's judgment on the pace of Japan's monetary policy normalization.
(If yen fluctuations amplify, it may cause情绪扰动 to global risk assets, especially US stocks and crypto markets.)
Financial markets are changing rapidly, all market analysis and trading strategies need to be adjusted dynamically. All views, analysis models, and operation strategies involved in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, for personal trading log purposes only, and do not constitute any investment advice or operation basis. The market has risks, investment needs caution, DYOR.
