After a 22% weekly gain, profit-taking pressure emerges at $80,000
Bitcoin is trading at $78,353.62, down 1.20% in the past 24 hours, following a cumulative weekly gain of 21.82%. Since breaking above $70,000 on August 19th, short liquidations reached $2.74 billion, while long liquidations were only $257 million. A short squeeze fueled this rapid rally. However, in the last 24 hours, the market structure has reversed: long liquidations reached $310.03 million, while short liquidations were only $60.77 million. Bitcoin contributed $133.73 million of this, indicating that funds chasing the rally at high levels are starting to face pressure.
Open interest remains near $25.35 billion, not far from the August peak of $25.7 billion, with a funding rate of +0.000091%. This means bullish leverage has not been significantly unwound. The next leg up cannot rely solely on short covering and must be supported by spot buying. The 12-hour RSI once rose to 81.70 before falling below the 83.83 signal line. Trading volume also weakened after the breakout on August 19th, increasing the risk of a short-term correction, though it is not yet sufficient to confirm a long-term top.
Long-Term Holders are Taking Profits Near $80,000
CryptoQuant data shows most investor groups are currently in profit. The Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator is at 21.1, while for Short-Term Holders it's 13.4, and for entities holding coins from one day to one month it's 13.9. The Long-Term to Short-Term Holder SOPR Ratio rose to around 1.4 near $80,000, indicating long-term holders were realizing profits faster. This ratio has since fallen back to 0.93, suggesting a shift in the selling structure.
This does not mean old holders have stopped selling, but rather that the market must absorb more profit-taking supply. Sustained ETF inflows could provide support, but if spot activity weakens, nearby support levels will be tested. Meanwhile, the market is still awaiting the PCE inflation data, which could reshape interest rate expectations and directly impact demand for risk assets.
Breaking Above $80,070 Targets $83,681, Falling Below $77,300 Signals Weakness
Glassnode's supply distribution shows approximately 83,800 BTC, about 0.42% of the supply, around $82,045. A confirmed breakout could see price move relatively quickly through this thin zone. However, supply is significantly heavier between $83,300 and $84,569. Around 549,200 BTC last changed hands near $84,569, close to 5% of the circulating supply, and holders returning to their cost basis might sell collectively.
A 12-hour close above $80,070 would signify an upward breakout from the current flag pattern. Further movement above $81,343 and $81,449 would set targets at $82,430-$82,741 and then $83,681. A sustained absorption of supply above these levels would bring the $88,000-$90,000 zone into view. Conversely, price may consolidate between $77,300 and $79,731 ahead of the PCE data. A break below $77,300 would weaken the bullish structure, with subsequent support levels at $75,545 and $73,500.
