Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: The Long Night Is at Its Deepest, a Glimmer of Light for the Crypto Market Is Near

marsbitPubblicato 2026-02-03Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-02-03

Introduzione

Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer asserts that the crypto market has been in a severe winter since January 2025, though its end is likely nearer than its beginning. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are down 39% and 53% from their October 2025 peaks, respectively, many other assets have fallen even more sharply. This isn't a typical bull market pullback but a full-scale crypto winter, driven by over-leverage and large-scale profit-taking by early investors. Despite positive developments in adoption and regulation, prices continue to fall because bear markets often ignore good news. Historically, crypto winters last around 13 months. However, the current downturn may have started earlier than perceived, as massive inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, along with crypto treasury products (DATs), masked underlying weakness in the broader market. These institutional purchases, totaling approximately $75 billion in Bitcoin alone, provided crucial support floor—without which declines could have been much steeper. The market is now categorized into three groups: assets with strong institutional support (like BTC and ETH) saw milder declines; those with recent ETF approvals fell more significantly; and assets without such backing experienced severe drops. The current climate feels hopeless, but the fundamental strengths of crypto—regulatory progress, institutional adoption, and real-world utility—remain intact. These positive factors are accumulating potential that is likely to trigger...

The bad news is: We have been in a crypto winter since January 2025. The good news is: We are likely closer to the end of the winter than to its beginning.

I want to state something obvious, because I believe it will help you make beneficial decisions in the coming months: We are in a full-blown crypto winter.

I find that few people online or in the mainstream media are talking about this, but it is an indisputable fact. Bitcoin is down 39% from its all-time high in October 2025, Ethereum is down 53%, and many other crypto assets have fallen even more.

It's important to recognize it for what it is. This is not a bull market correction, nor a dip. This is a full-blown, harsh winter comparable to 2022, as brutal as what Leonardo DiCaprio endured in *The Revenant*. The causes of this winter range from excessive leverage to large-scale profit-taking by early players.

For me, acknowledging and accepting this has made everything incredibly clear.

Why are crypto prices falling despite continuous positive news in areas like adoption and regulation? Because we are in the deep end of the crypto winter. Why is the new Fed Chair a Bitcoin supporter, yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the extreme fear zone? Because we are in a crypto winter.

Those who experienced the past winters of 2018 or 2022 will remember that in the depths of winter, positive news means nothing. We won't see a rebound just because Wall Street is hiring aggressively or Morgan Stanley is increasing its crypto exposure. These things are important in the long term, but not now. Crypto winter doesn't end in euphoria; it ends in exhaustion.

So, when will the winter end? The good news is: I believe we are nearing the end.

The Historical Pattern of Crypto Winters

Crypto winters typically last about 13 months. For example, Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed in December 2018; it peaked in October 2021 and bottomed in November 2022.

By this cycle's logic, we still have a difficult period ahead. After all, Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, so wouldn't we have to wait until November 2026? I don't think so.

After further analysis of the current winter, I've become increasingly aware that it actually started in January 2025. We just couldn't see it because inflows into ETFs and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) masked the truth.

ETF and DAT Flows Masked the 2025 Winter

Take a close look at this chart of the performance of the components of the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index since January 1, 2025.

They clearly fall into three categories:

· First-category assets (BTC, ETH, XRP) performed relatively okay, down 10.3% to 19.9%

· Second-category assets (SOL, LTC, LINK) experienced a standard bear market, down 36.9% to 46.2%

· Third-category assets (ADA, AVAX, SUI, DOT) were decimated, down 61.9% to 74.7%

The core difference between these three categories essentially boils down to whether institutions have channels to invest in them. First-category assets received massive support from ETF/DAT inflows throughout the year; second-category assets had ETFs approved in 2025; third-category assets never did. (Note: XRP is an exception. It didn't have an ETF at the start of 2025 but performed well. The reason might be that XRP faced a life-or-death lawsuit from the U.S. SEC at the start of 2025, which was dropped in early 2025, leading to a significant rally for the asset.)

The scale of institutional support is staggering. For example, during the period shown in the chart, ETFs and DATs cumulatively bought 744,417 Bitcoin, worth approximately $75 billion. Imagine where Bitcoin would be without this $75 billion of support? I suspect it would be down about 60%.

The retail market has been in a brutal winter since January 2025. Institutional money just masked this fact for some assets for a while.

It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn

What needs to be remembered right now is that there is a lot of tangible, positive development happening in crypto. Regulatory progress is real, institutional adoption is real, stablecoins and asset tokenization are real, and Wall Street's embrace is real.

In a bear market, positive news gets ignored, but it doesn't disappear. It gets stored as potential energy. Once the clouds part and market sentiment returns to normal, this pent-up energy is released in a vengeful manner. What can disperse the clouds? Strong economic growth triggering a broad risk-asset rally, positive signals from the Clarity Act, signs of sovereign nation Bitcoin adoption, or simply the passage of time.

As a veteran who has lived through multiple crypto winters, I can tell you that the feeling right before the winter ends feels very much like this: despair, helplessness, gloom. But the current market pullback has done nothing to change the fundamentals of the crypto market.

I believe we will rebound faster and more violently. After all, the winter started in January 2025. Spring can't be far away.

Crypto di tendenza

CitreaCTR

wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT

Velodrome FinanceVELODROME

BrevisBREV

PancakeSwapCAKE

JUSTJST

Domande pertinenti

QAccording to the Bitwise CIO, when did the crypto winter actually begin, and what masked its early signs?

AThe crypto winter actually began in January 2025, but its early signs were masked by massive inflows into ETFs and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs), which provided significant institutional buying support for certain assets like Bitcoin.

QWhat are the three categories of crypto asset performance since January 1, 2025, as described in the article, and what was the key differentiating factor?

AThe three categories are: 1) Assets like BTC, ETH, and XRP that performed relatively okay, down 10.3% to 19.9%. 2) Assets like SOL, LTC, and LINK that experienced a standard bear market, down 36.9% to 46.2%. 3) Assets like ADA, AVAX, SUI, and DOT that were decimated, down 61.9% to 74.7%. The key differentiating factor was whether the assets had a channel for institutional investment (via ETFs/DATs).

QWhy does the author believe that positive news in areas like adoption and regulation fails to boost crypto prices during a deep crypto winter?

AThe author states that during the depths of a crypto winter, positive news becomes meaningless for price action. The market ignores good news because sentiment is dominated by fear and exhaustion; the winter doesn't end in a frenzy of excitement but rather when the selling is exhausted.

QBased on historical patterns, how long do crypto winters typically last, and why does the author think the current one might end sooner than a simple pattern extrapolation would suggest?

AHistorically, crypto winters have lasted about 13 months. A simple extrapolation from the October 2025 peak would suggest a bottom around November 2026. However, the author believes it will end sooner because the analysis shows the winter actually began in January 2025, meaning the market has already been in a downturn for a significant period.

QWhat does the author conclude about the state of crypto fundamentals despite the current price downturn?

AThe author concludes that the current price downturn has not changed the strong fundamentals of the crypto market. Progress in regulation, institutional adoption, stablecoins, asset tokenization, and Wall Street's embrace are all real. This positive energy is being stored as potential energy and will be released in a powerful, retaliatory manner once market sentiment returns to normal.

Letture associate

In Jinjiang, Fujian, a Storage Super Unicorn Lies Quiet

In Fujian's Jinjiang, a city known for sportswear, lies a quiet semiconductor giant: Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit Co. (JHICC). Once a promising domestic DRAM manufacturer alongside Yangtze Memory and ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), its journey was derailed in 2018 when the U.S. placed it on an Entity List and filed criminal charges for alleged trade secret theft. This halted production for years. A turning point came in February 2024 when a U.S. federal court found JHICC not guilty. However, it had lost crucial time. While CXMT soared to become a top-valued A-share company in 2024, JHICC, with an estimated valuation of 80 billion RMB, was just restarting. Its current output is primarily customized DDR4 chips, not the advanced DDR5/HBM demanded for AI, but it still benefits from the broader memory chip upcycle. JHICC's story is tied to Chen Zhengkun, a veteran engineer who left Micron to lead the venture. Founded in 2016 with state-backed funding, JHICC partnered with Taiwan's UMC to develop DRAM technology. Rapid progress was cut short by the U.S. actions, which Micron initiated, partly due to its heavy reliance on the Chinese market. Post-sanctions, Chen's team worked to rebuild the production line with reduced reliance on U.S. technology. According to its records, JHICC achieved small-scale production and revenue growth under immense pressure. It now focuses on the stable "niche" DRAM market (e.g., TVs, routers) with a monthly capacity of ~40,000 wafers, aiming for 60,000 by 2026. It holds over 1,000 patents but remains on the Entity List. For Jinjiang, investing in JHICC was a bold industrial leap. The local government provided unwavering financial and logistical support during the crisis, helping the company survive. JHICC has become the anchor for a growing local semiconductor cluster. Though its scale lags behind domestic peers, JHICC's persistence symbolizes a hard-won foothold in a global market long dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Having missed one boom, it seeks a place in the new AI-driven memory supercycle.

marsbit3 min fa

In Jinjiang, Fujian, a Storage Super Unicorn Lies Quiet

marsbit3 min fa

Amid a 38GW Power Shortage, Why Have Bitcoin Mining Facilities Suddenly Become the New Gateway to AI Compute?

Under the impending threat of a 38GW power deficit projected for US data centers between 2026-2028, decommissioned Bitcoin mining sites are emerging as critical infrastructure for AI compute. A growing number of listed North American miners—including TeraWulf, Hut 8, and Cipher Mining—are pivoting to become "Powered Shell Providers." They are repurposing their existing assets: pre-approved grid connections, land, and substations to offer ready-to-use data center shells to cloud providers and AI companies. This shift capitalizes on the severe bottleneck in securing new, large-scale power access, which can take 5-7 years. Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate retrofitted mining facilities could supply 10-19GW of the needed capacity. The core value proposition is no longer cryptocurrency mining, but selling a scarce "time to power" advantage in the race for AI infrastructure.

华尔街日报3 min fa

Amid a 38GW Power Shortage, Why Have Bitcoin Mining Facilities Suddenly Become the New Gateway to AI Compute?

华尔街日报3 min fa

Michael Saylor: 'We Never Said We Would Never Sell Bitcoin'

Michael Saylor stated that his company never made a commitment to never sell its bitcoin holdings, though it expects to remain a net buyer of bitcoin long-term. His comments came following reports that the company had received new authorization to sell up to $5 billion in bitcoin. Saylor clarified that this authorization is not new and was announced on June 29th as part of the company's capital management strategy. He emphasized that the authorization permits but does not obligate sales for specific purposes and that no new approval has been announced. Saylor also noted the company never officially adopted a "bitcoin will never be sold" policy.

cryptonews.ru1 h fa

Michael Saylor: 'We Never Said We Would Never Sell Bitcoin'

cryptonews.ru1 h fa

The 'Summer Saw' Continues: A Break Above $67,000 Could Signal the Start of Bitcoin's Rally

Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a $58,000–$67,000 range, with its price dropping to $62,217 on August 1st. Analysts are divided on the next direction. Trader Crypto Candy suggests a potential drop towards $60,000 if the price remains below $66,000. Investor Jelle refers to the prolonged sideways movement as a "summer saw" and maintains a dollar-cost averaging strategy. The key upside scenario hinges on a breakout above $67,000. Daan Crypto Trades states that without this, the movement risks being just an extended pause. Roman projects a sharper rise to $70,000–$80,000+ if a breakout occurs with sufficient volume. Macro-analyst Gert van Lagen views this as an accumulation phase within a multi-year "cup and handle" pattern. He notes that long-term holders are refusing to sell, as indicated by the NUPL metric staying far from capitulation. In summary, the market is in an accumulation phase, with the $60,000 and $67,000 levels being critical. A break above $67,000 could initiate significant growth, while a fall below $60,000 may lead to further decline. The recent pullback shows that legislative catalysts have provided only short-lived momentum, raising questions about the sustainability of any future breakout attempts.

cryptonews.ru1 h fa

The 'Summer Saw' Continues: A Break Above $67,000 Could Signal the Start of Bitcoin's Rally

cryptonews.ru1 h fa

Must-Watch Events Next Week｜CLARITY Act Could Face Senate Vote; SpaceX, Circle to Report Earnings (8.3-8.9)

**Summary: Key Events and Developments to Watch (August 3-9)** The upcoming week is marked by significant financial disclosures, key legislative deadlines, and notable product updates. **Major Financial Events:** Several companies are scheduled to release their Q2 2026 earnings. American Bitcoin (ABTC) will report on August 3, followed by SpaceX and Hut 8 Mining Corp. on August 4, and Circle on August 5. Notably, a significant portion of SpaceX shares (up to 12% of total shares) will be unlocked on August 6 following their earnings release. **Key Legislative Deadline:** The U.S. Senate faces an August 7 deadline to secure 60 votes for the CLARITY Act, a bipartisan bill aiming to establish a federal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. The Senate may hold a full vote on the bill during the week. **Economic Data:** The U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released on August 7, providing crucial labor market data. **Technology & Product Updates:** * **Shutdowns:** DeFi portfolio tracker Zapper and wallet app Ctrl Wallet will cease operations on August 3. * **Upgrades:** LayerZero will deprecate its v1 relayers on August 3. XRP Ledger's new version 3.3.0, featuring five new functions, is expected next week. * **AI:** Elon Musk announced that the advanced Grok 4.6 AI model is set for release around August 7. * **Bitcoin:** The BIP-110 forced signaling for a potential Bitcoin network change is scheduled to begin around August 8. **Other Notable Events:** Chinese robotics firm Unitree Tech has set its preliminary price inquiry for its IPO for August 5. South Korean exchange Upbit will delist AQT and AERGO tokens on August 3.

marsbit2 h fa

Must-Watch Events Next Week｜CLARITY Act Could Face Senate Vote; SpaceX, Circle to Report Earnings (8.3-8.9)

marsbit2 h fa

Trading

Spot

Articoli Popolari

Come comprare NIGHT

Benvenuto in HTX.com! Abbiamo reso l'acquisto di Midnight (NIGHT) semplice e conveniente. Segui la nostra guida passo passo per intraprendere il tuo viaggio nel mondo delle criptovalute.Step 1: Crea il tuo Account HTXUsa la tua email o numero di telefono per registrarti il tuo account gratuito su HTX. Vivi un'esperienza facile e sblocca tutte le funzionalità,Crea il mio accountStep 2: Vai in Acquista crypto e seleziona il tuo metodo di pagamentoCarta di credito/debito: utilizza la tua Visa o Mastercard per acquistare immediatamente MidnightNIGHT.Bilancio: Usa i fondi dal bilancio del tuo account HTX per fare trading senza problemi.Terze parti: abbiamo aggiunto metodi di pagamento molto utilizzati come Google Pay e Apple Pay per maggiore comodità.P2P: Fai trading direttamente con altri utenti HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): Offriamo servizi su misura e tassi di cambio competitivi per i trader.Step 3: Conserva Midnight (NIGHT)Dopo aver acquistato Midnight (NIGHT), conserva nel tuo account HTX. In alternativa, puoi inviare tramite trasferimento blockchain o scambiare per altre criptovalute.Step 4: Scambia Midnight (NIGHT)Scambia facilmente Midnight (NIGHT) nel mercato spot di HTX. Accedi al tuo account, seleziona la tua coppia di trading, esegui le tue operazioni e monitora in tempo reale. Offriamo un'esperienza user-friendly sia per chi ha appena iniziato che per i trader più esperti.

369 Totale visualizzazioniPubblicato il 2025.12.08Aggiornato il 2026.06.02

Discussioni

Benvenuto nella Community HTX. Qui puoi rimanere informato sugli ultimi sviluppi della piattaforma e accedere ad approfondimenti esperti sul mercato. Le opinioni degli utenti sul prezzo di NIGHT NIGHT sono presentate come di seguito.