Bitnomial gains CFTC approval to launch prediction markets in the US

cointelegraphPubblicato 2025-12-12Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-12

Introduzione

Bitnomial Clearinghouse LLC has obtained approval from the U.S. CFTC to clear fully collateralized swaps, enabling its parent company, Bitnomial, to launch prediction markets and provide clearing services to external platforms. The prediction markets will cover crypto and economic events, allowing traders to take positions on outcomes like token prices and macroeconomic data. This expands Bitnomial’s existing suite of Bitcoin and crypto derivatives products. The company’s operates as an infrastructure-only clearing provider, offering margin and settlement systems with support for both USD and cryptocurrency collateral. The approval follows recent regulatory clearance for Bitnomial to operate a CFTC-regulated spot crypto exchange. The article also notes the growing momentum of prediction markets in the U.S., highlighting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, the latter of which recently received CFTC approval for intermediated trading platform operations.

Bitnomial Clearinghouse LLC received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to clear fully collateralized swaps, enabling its parent company, Bitnomial, to launch prediction markets and offer clearing services to other platforms.

According to Friday’s announcement, Bitnomial’s prediction market will cover crypto and economic events, alongside its existing Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto derivatives products. The contracts are designed to allow traders to take positions on outcomes, such as token price levels and macroeconomic data.

The approval expands the umbrella of the trading products offered by Bitnomial. Based in Chicago, the company’s exchange and clearing arms offer perpetuals, futures, options contracts and leveraged spot trading. The company’s clearinghouse also supports crypto-based margin and settlement, allowing approved products to be margined and settled directly in digital assets.

Bitnomial president Michael Dunn said the approval allows the company to serve “both our own exchange and external partners, building a clearing network that strengthens the entire prediction market ecosystem.”

Bitnomial Clearinghouse operates as an infrastructure-only clearing provider, rather than a retail competitor, giving approved partners access to its margin and settlement systems and allowing collateral to be converted between US dollars and cryptocurrency.

The approval follows a recent green light to launch a CFTC-regulated spot cryptocurrency trading platform in the US, allowing customers to buy, sell and trade leveraged and non-leveraged crypto products on a federally supervised exchange.

Event contracts on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket

Related: Coinbase may debut prediction markets, tokenized stocks on Wednesday: Report

Polymarket gains momentum in the US

Prediction markets have emerged as a major trend in 2025. According to DefiLlama data, prediction market Kalshi has generated $5.27 billion in trading volume over the last 30 days, while blockchain-based Polymarket recorded just under $2 billion over the same time period.

Kalshi trading volume. Source: DefiLlama

In November, Polymarket received regulatory approval from the CFTC to operate an intermediated trading platform, allowing access through registered brokers under the rules governing US markets.

The approval followed the closure of an investigation in July led by the CFTC and US Department of Justice into whether Polymarket had allowed trading by US users, a probe that included an FBI search of founder Shayne Coplan’s home.

Polymarket, which settles contracts on the Polygon blockchain using the USDC (USDC) stablecoin, has also secured several partnerships in recent months, including the UFC and Zuffa boxing and fantasy sports operator PrizePicks in November.

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Letture associate

Standard Chartered Bank Places a 40x 'Bet', Calls for UNI to Rise to $100

Standard Chartered Bank’s digital asset research head, Geoff Kendrick, initiated coverage on Uniswap with a highly bullish long-term price target of $100 for its UNI token by 2030—a roughly 40-fold increase from its ~$2.60 trading price at the time of the report. The bank’s thesis hinges on the exponential growth of tokenized real-world assets (RWA), projected to surge from ~$340 billion to $4 trillion by 2028. It expects the share of these assets deployed in DeFi to rise from 3.5% to 30%, driving total DeFi TVL to around $2.7 trillion. As the leading decentralized exchange (DEX), Uniswap is positioned to capture a significant portion of this liquidity influx. A key catalyst is Uniswap’s “fee switch,” activated in late 2024, which directs a portion of protocol fees to UNI token buybacks and burns. This transforms UNI from a pure governance token into a yield-generating, deflationary asset, narrowing its valuation gap with centralized exchanges like Coinbase. The report draws an analogy: Coinbase operates like Netflix (centralized, high-cost), while Uniswap functions like YouTube (open, user-generated, network-effect driven). Despite its dominant market share and recent institutional adoption—such as BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and Fidelity’s stablecoin using Uniswap for liquidity—the path faces challenges. Competition from Solana-based DEXs and aggregators threatens user mindshare, while regulatory delays or setbacks in RWA adoption could slow the projected growth. Furthermore, UNI remains down over 92% from its 2021 peak, reflecting persistent market skepticism. Ultimately, Standard Chartered’s report signals a shift in traditional finance’s perception of DeFi, valuing network effects and cash flow potential. However, realizing the $100 target depends on Uniswap successfully navigating intense competition, regulatory hurdles, and the multi-year timeline for massive tokenized asset adoption.

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Standard Chartered Bank Places a 40x 'Bet', Calls for UNI to Rise to $100

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For Those Still Obsessed with Altcoins, Just Go All-in on HOOD

Title: "For Those Still Fixated on Altcoins, Just Bet on HOOD" The article argues that Robinhood (HOOD) stock is a compelling alternative for investors still holding onto hopes for altcoin rallies. It highlights HOOD's recent strong performance, briefly touching $100, and expresses continued optimism. The bullish thesis is multi-faceted: HOOD's operational data for May showed record highs in key metrics like total assets and funded customers, though crypto volume was weaker. Positive catalysts include Robinhood launching its own prediction market (Rothera) to capture more revenue, gaining approval to act as an IPO underwriter for major upcoming listings, and being selected to manage the new "Trump Account" government savings program for millions of future US newborns. Insider and institutional buying, along with raised price targets, provide further confidence. The core argument is that HOOD is successfully decoupling from the crypto market's fortunes. While crypto-related revenue was once a major contributor, its share of total revenue has been declining, hitting 13% in Q1 2026. Although HOOD's price historically moved with Bitcoin, a recent divergence is noted. The author posits that Robinhood's growing equity trading, prediction markets, and IPO-related businesses can drive growth independently of a crypto bull market. Thus, HOOD offers asymmetric exposure: it stands to benefit if the crypto market recovers but is no longer wholly dependent on it. For those disillusioned with altcoins' risks, HOOD presents a potentially safer way to maintain exposure to the fintech and speculative trading space.

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For Those Still Obsessed with Altcoins, Just Go All-in on HOOD

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For Those Still Obsessed with Altcoins, Just Buy HOOD

The author expresses bullish sentiment on Robinhood (HOOD) stock, citing multiple positive catalysts. Recent monthly operational data shows record highs in key metrics like total assets, funded customers, and margin balances. On the news front, Robinhood launched its own prediction market (Rothera), received approval to act as an IPO underwriter, and was selected to manage the new "Trump Accounts" for U.S. newborns, ensuring a long-term user base. Insiders and institutions are also buying or raising price targets. The core investment thesis, however, focuses on HOOD's evolving valuation narrative. Historically viewed as a "crypto proxy," its stock price was highly correlated with Bitcoin and its revenue heavily dependent on cryptocurrency trading fees. Recent data indicates this dependence is waning: crypto-related revenue hit a multi-quarter low of 13% of total revenue in Q1 2026, and the stock price has recently decoupled from BTC's trend. The author argues HOOD is transforming into a more diversified platform. Its growth is now driven by equities, options, prediction markets, and IPO-related services. This reduces its cyclical vulnerability to crypto bear markets. Crucially, if the crypto market recovers, HOOD would still benefit from increased trading activity. Therefore, for investors still hoping for gains from altcoins but concerned about their risks and liquidity, the author suggests HOOD offers a compelling alternative with higher safety margins—it can rise with a crypto bull run but isn't reliant on one.

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For Those Still Obsessed with Altcoins, Just Buy HOOD

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