Bitcoin has spent a good chunk of the past month without a clear trend on the price charts.
A recent AMBCrypto report showed that this was likely a consolidation phase, and accumulator addresses were adding BTC to their holdings.
This demand has not been enough to drive prices back above the $94k short-term support zone.
Even though this resistance has been tested multiple times, Bitcoin [BTC] has tended to plummet back toward $89k-$90k over the past two weeks.
The longer-term outlook was a bit more hopeful. Liquidity signals were starting to lean bullish. The global M2 reached all-time highs, which could set the stage for a crypto rebound in 2026.
The Founder and CEO of Alphractal observed in a post on X that Bitcoin was at a key on-chain support.
The realized cap impulse metric, which tracks the rate of change of the BTC realized cap, was at a multi-month support even as prices consolidated below $94k. Why do we not see a breakout yet?
Exploring the lack of demand for Bitcoin
The Bitcoin apparent demand weighs new demand against supply from newly mined BTC and supply from long-term holders. The metric has been negative since late November.
For a brief period in November, the apparent demand seemed to grow, but this did not last.
The realized profit and loss for on-chain Bitcoin, held between 1 and 3 months, helps track market sentiment.
It also illuminates capital flow into or out of the market. Over the past two months, the metric showed steady losses for holders.
The drop to $84k recently saw the profit/loss margin stoop to the lowest it has been since July 2022. It signaled investors were facing deep losses and bear market conditions.
Conditions were bleak for the bulls. The price action captured the difficulty buyers faced from incessant selling. A move back above $100k will need sizeable capital inflows, which we do not currently see.
Final Thoughts
- Though Bitcoin has tested the $94k local resistance multiple times and was at an important on-chain support, it was unable to rally.
- The metrics gave evidence for a lack of demand. This must change to keep alive the hopes of a Bitcoin recovery.
