Bitcoin RSI bullish divergence draws 2022 comparisons as analysis weighs new price trend

cointelegraphPubblicato 2026-08-25Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-08-25

Introduzione

Bitcoin (BTC) price is at $80,000 amid conflicting market signals. Analysis of key momentum indicators is sparking debate on whether a new trend is emerging. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 58.3, showing a bullish divergence pattern similar to the one seen before the end of the 2022 bear market, suggesting a potential major trend change. Meanwhile, the daily RSI is near 83, its most "overbought" level since November 2024. Some see this as a reversal warning, while others note sustained overbought periods have historically accompanied bull markets. Analysts draw further comparisons to late 2022, when a sharp RSI surge signaled a new market phase. Additionally, the two-month stochastic RSI has printed a key bullish crossover, though it did not reach the extreme lows seen before prior major reversals. Traders remain divided on whether Bitcoin's recent 25% rebound marks a lasting shift or a temporary pause.

Bitcoin (BTC) price action is offering mixed signals after hitting $80,000 as traders diverge on market trajectory.


Key points:


  • Bitcoin weekly relative strength index (RSI) reaches 58.3, repeating a bullish divergence that accompanied the end of the 2022 bear market.
  • Daily RSI values reach their most “overbought” since November 2024 near 83.
  • Stochastic RSI prints a key crossover but avoids copying previous zero-level bear-market lows.


Weekly RSI echoes Bitcoin’s 2022 bear-market bottom


Relative strength index (RSI) data across daily, weekly and two-month time frames has added to the debate over whether last week’s 25% rebound by Bitcoin will endure.


RSI is a classic indicator for trend momentum. It uses an asset’s average gain or loss over a given lookback window, normally 14 days, to determine the strength of its current trend momentum. For Bitcoin, bullish divergences with price, where RSI makes higher highs while BTC/USD makes lower lows, have accompanied the start of major trend inflections.


In mid-2022, around six months before the end of Bitcoin’s last bear market, weekly RSI began a bullish divergence, locking in higher lows while BTC/USD saw lower lows. Throughout 2026, a similar pattern emerged, data from TradingView shows.


BTC/USD one-week chart with RSI bullish divergences. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView


While short-term RSI signals present a less reliable picture of overall price trends, weekly signals have led some to rethink the status of the current bear market.


“Weekly is the timeframe that matters here, that’s where you read the secular trend and the cycle inflection points,” Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, wrote in a post on X on Tuesday.


Coutts described weekly bullish divergences as having “real weight,” citing price upside that resulted from previous divergence events.


Weekly RSI currently measures 58.3, its highest levels since BTC/USD hit its latest all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025, having broken through a trend of lower highs. On daily time frames, RSI is now in “overbought” territory at 82.93.


BTC/USD one-day chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView


Market participants are split over the implications of the daily readings, which are the highest since November 2024. Some see RSI giving a warning sign of an imminent reversal, while others point to the fact that historically, Bitcoin uptrends have been accompanied by multiple “overbought” periods, where RSI is above 70.


In his latest analysis, Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at crypto trading platform PrimeXBT, flagged more similarities to late 2022. At the time, daily RSI increased from 40 to 90 over a single weekly candle.


“An extreme move like this usually signals the start of something new,” he told X followers.


“It doesn’t necessarily mean that the bear market is over but it is telling us something. I think what it’s trying to tell us is that we are about to enter a new phase of this cycle.”


BTC/USD RSI comparison chart. Source: Jonatan Randin on X.com


Stochastic RSI prints anticipated crossover


Previously, Cointelegraph reported on expectations that Bitcoin’s two-month stochastic RSI indicator would repeat historical patterns to provide a clear signal over the end of the bear market.


Related: First bear-market trend line reclaim since 2025: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week


Stochastic RSI privileges more recent price moves, with a crossover of its two constituent trend lines acting as a cue for bullish trend change. This event has now occurred. However, the indicator reached only 4.81, avoiding the macro lows near zero that preceded previous crossovers.


BTC/USD two-month chart with stochastic RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView


Domande pertinenti

QWhat key similarity between Bitcoin's current weekly RSI pattern and that of 2022 does the article highlight?

AThe article highlights that Bitcoin's weekly RSI is repeating a bullish divergence pattern that accompanied the end of the 2022 bear market, where the RSI made higher lows while the BTC/USD price made lower lows.

QAccording to the article, what is the current level of Bitcoin's daily RSI and what does it signify?

ABitcoin's daily RSI is at 82.93, which is in 'overbought' territory and marks its highest level since November 2024.

QWhat did analyst Jonatan Randin suggest about the extreme move in daily RSI similar to late 2022?

AJonatan Randin suggested that an extreme RSI move like the one seen (increasing from 40 to 90 in a week) usually signals the start of something new, indicating the market is about to enter a new phase of the cycle.

QWhat event has occurred with Bitcoin's two-month stochastic RSI indicator, and how does its recent low differ from previous bear-market signals?

AThe two-month stochastic RSI indicator has printed a bullish crossover. However, its recent low only reached 4.81, avoiding the macro lows near zero that preceded previous such crossovers at bear-market bottoms.

QWhat conflicting views do market participants have regarding Bitcoin's high daily RSI readings?

AMarket participants are split: some view the high daily RSI as a warning sign of an imminent price reversal, while others point out that historically, Bitcoin uptrends have been accompanied by multiple such 'overbought' periods where RSI is above 70.

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