Bitcoin (BTC) aimed for $88,000 on Friday after Japan’s central bank raised interest rates to 30-year highs.
Key points:
Bitcoin joins US stocks futures heading higher in a curiously bullish reaction to Japan’s interest-rate hike.
Commentators argue that no further hikes will happen due to economic forces.
Bitcoin continues to hammer out a bottom on longer timeframes.
Arthur Hayes eyes BTC price, yen surge
Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView showed 2.5% BTC price gains versus the daily open.
In line with expectations, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiked rates to around 0.75% on the day, marking their highest levels in three decades and ending the country’s latest period of “cheap” money.
Against a backdrop of global central-bank policy easing, Japan’s move stood out. While the hike was notionally a headwind for crypto and risk assets, reactions were optimistic.
“Don’t fight the BOJ: -ve real rates is the explicit policy,” Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, told X followers.
“$JPY to 200, and $BTC to a milly.”
Hayes was one of several commentators who saw the hike as ultimately bullish for asset holders.
Continuing, the research project Temple 8 Research flagged an emerging standoff between market expectations and economic reality in Japan.
“The market sees a hawkish pivot. We see a political ceiling,” it summarized in a blog post last week.
Temple 8 predicted that rates would not rise again before 2027 to protect the yen and avoid increased interest payments on Japan’s latest $140 billion stimulus package.
“You cannot floor the gas (Fiscal Stimulus) while slamming the brakes (Rate Hikes),” the post added.
“If rates go to 1.5%, interest payments on this new debt explode.”
Bitcoin lacks “true capitulation event”
Bitcoin thus joined US stocks futures heading higher ahead of Friday’s Wall Street open.
Related: Bitcoin institutional buys flip new supply for the first time in 6 weeks
At the time of writing, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.5%, while the S&P 500 sought a rebound after flat performance.
“With participation remaining strong some measures of investor sentiment shifting back to showing fear, that’s a positive backdrop to see a rally in the final weeks of the year,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company forecast in a blog post Thursday.
“While the S&P 500 is trading weak recently, the second half of December tends to be positive from a historical seasonal standpoint.”
At the same time, BTC/USD hit a low of $84,390 amid volatility following the surprise US inflation data.
Traders remained highly cautious, with calls for further support retests commonplace on social media.
Possible quick test of 80K underway. $BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/KGL61fKOwD
— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) December 18, 2025
“Bitcoin is currently hammering out a bottom, but the process is far from over,” onchain analytics platform Checkonchain warned on the day.
Checkonchain singled out $81,000, the cost basis for the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as a key line in the sand.
It added that the market was yet to witness a “true capitulation event.”
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