Macro signals continue to defy mainstream expectations.
This week stress-tested the market with back-to-back data drops, and from here it looks like bulls are absorbing the volatility, especially as incoming data continues to surprise analysts without driving meaningful downside.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] technical setup reinforces that view. Despite the FUD, BTC continues to chop above its early February low near $59k. Naturally, the key question now: Is this resilience actually signaling a market bottom?
CPI relief sharpens the divide between bulls and bears
Lately, macro prints have been driving sharp sentiment swings in Bitcoin.
Take the latest jobs report. It came in “stronger than expected,” reinforcing the resilience of the U.S. labor market. However, that quickly reignited a clash between bulls and bears over what it means for the rate-cut path.
Then, on the 13th of February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which printed at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, quickly shifting the debate back in favor of the bulls.
The reaction was swift. Bitcoin closed the day up 3.93%, marking its strongest intraday gain in two weeks. Bears naturally took the hit, with short liquidations accounting for roughly 85% of the $267 million flushed.
That said, the real test of bullish conviction is just beginning.
Technically, bears are still leaning against a breakout, with a dense liquidity cluster building around a key price band. Unless Bitcoin clears this range “decisively,” the latest move risks being just another short squeeze.
Bitcoin bulls need conviction amid on-chain pressure
Bears continue to argue that annual inflation remains elevated.
Notably, this divergence in bull-versus-bear positioning around recent macro prints is now showing up on-chain. Bitcoin’s funding rates remain in the red, pointing to a persistent short bias despite recent price resilience.
The result? A dense short-side liquidity cluster is forming between $70k and $75k, with roughly $150 million in Bitcoin sell pressure, making this a key resistance zone bulls must clear to sustain the rally.
On-chain accumulation around Bitcoin’s current spot is increasing. BTC ETFs saw a $15 million inflow after two consecutive days of outflows, hinting at a flip, but the trend is still too weak to fuel any meaningful upside for BTC.
The bigger picture? Even with CPI relief, U.S. investors aren’t stepping in, likely pricing in a correction before committing. Taken together, this suggests bulls will need more conviction to push Bitcoin out of its current chop.
From a technical standpoint, BTC’s near‐4% rally appears fueled more by a short squeeze than genuine buying pressure. If that dynamic persists, momentum could swing back to the bears, leaving Bitcoin longs exposed to significant risk.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin faces key resistance as short-term liquidity builds between $70k– $75k, with bulls struggling to convert the recent rally into sustained momentum.
- The move appears driven by a short squeeze, keeping Bitcoin longs exposed to downside risk.
