In his latest video analysis, cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen assessed the current market situation for Bitcoin in light of its technical indicators and historical cycles. According to Cowen, Bitcoin has entered a critical phase of technical consolidation that will determine its direction in the near future.
Cowen stated that two key levels stand out on Bitcoin's technical chart:
- Bear Market Resistance Bands: Continues to decline near the $69,000 level.
- 200-Week Moving Average: Continues to trend upwards near the $63,700 level.
The analyst stated that with the bear market resistance bands falling and the 200-week moving average rising, the price is becoming increasingly squeezed, and the market will have to make a decision about a breakout before the final quarter of the year.
"The process boils down to two levels. Bitcoin will either break through the bear market resistance bands or fall below the 200-week moving average. A decision needs to be made, and once that decision is made, volatility will increase significantly."
Cowen, drawing attention to historical cycles, noted that in July, during mid-term election years, there is typically a rise, followed by a decline in August. BTC, which rose 20% in 2022 and nearly 40% in 2018, also ended July 2026 with a gain of roughly 7%. In past periods, August brought losses of 15% in 2022, 15% in 2018, and 18% in 2014.
Cowen stated that a new 'window of weakness' may open in the market from mid-August, and a potential correction of around 10% could push the price below the $60,000 level.
Cowen noted that the MVRV ratio, one of the on-chain indicators, has not yet reached its historical low below zero. Stating that for these indicators to reach the zero level, the price needs to reach a bottom consistent with historical cycles, the analyst said that a long-term Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy remains a sensible approach for the second half of the year, but one should prepare for short-term fluctuations.
*This is not investment advice.
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