After its recent rapid surge, Bitcoin is now facing three important macroeconomic events that could determine the asset's further movement until the end of this week, writes CoinDesk. These are the July U.S. inflation report PCE, Nvidia's financial results, and a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. Against this backdrop, analysts continue to assess the prospects of Bitcoin's new bull cycle.
PCE Could Change Fed Rate Expectations
The first important factor will be the publication of the July PCE — a key inflation indicator monitored by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
According to the FactSet consensus forecast, the core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, could reach 3.2% year-over-year and 0.18% month-over-month. In June, these figures were 3.3% and 0.13%, respectively.
Data higher than expected could heighten concerns about a possible Fed rate hike and create additional pressure on Bitcoin and the crypto market. After a seven-day rally above $80,000, the leading cryptocurrency has already retreated below $79,000, with technical indicators pointing to overbought conditions.
According to CME FedWatch, as of this writing, the market is pricing in a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September.
Assessment of the probability of Fed rate movement. Source: CME FedWatch.
"The focus now is on the July PCE inflation figure and Q2 GDP data, to be followed by Jackson Hole," said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian crypto exchange Giottus.
According to him, the market is currently assessing the probability of the Fed keeping rates in the 3.50-3.75% range in September at approximately 60%.
Subburaj also urged investors not to chase Bitcoin's recent rally, but instead to use a gradual entry into positions, small volumes, and controlled leverage.
Nvidia Results Could Affect Risk Appetite
The second important factor will be Nvidia's Q2 financial results. The company, a key indicator of demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, will release its report after the close of trading on Wednesday.
Strong results could ease concerns about massive AI capital expenditures funded by debt and support investor appetite for risky assets.
This could also be significant for Bitcoin. According to TradingView, the 90-day correlation between the leading cryptocurrency and Nvidia stock has mostly remained positive and above 0.5 since the beginning of 2025.
Meanwhile, the crypto market has already received a strong impulse after Bitcoin rose from around $63,000 to $79,000 during the week of August 17-23. This marked the largest weekly dollar-denominated gain for the asset in history.
According to Strive CEO Matt Cole, the next cycle could become the "strongest" in Bitcoin's history. He also noted that the asset demonstrated a breakthrough not only against the dollar but also against gold.
Jackson Hole Could Determine Further Fed Policy
The third catalyst will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28.
Investors will closely monitor his stance following the U.S. Treasury Secretary's recent plan to increase long-term bond buybacks. The Treasury is trying to curb the rise in government bond yields, whereas Warsh has previously advocated for letting the market determine their value.
It is the potential signal regarding further Fed policy that could determine whether the momentum that helped Bitcoin rise above $80,000 will persist.
Analyst assessments also support the continuation of the bullish trend. Following the breakout from a six-week trading range, Wintermute changed its Bitcoin forecast to bullish. However, to confirm a new market regime, according to CryptoQuant's estimate, the asset needs to consolidate above the 365-day moving average — around $83,000.
Additional optimism comes from a Bernstein forecast. Analysts expect Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and around $300,000 at the peak of the next cycle in 2029.
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