Bitcoin’s recent price behavior has kept traders split between those expecting another leg down and those calling that a bottom is already in. That tension is now feeding different technical analyses, with one analyst arguing that the probability of a deeper crash has dropped significantly based on long-term signals.
Chance Of Bitcoin Making New Lows Is Very Small
Bitcoin has spent months testing the patience of its holders since its all-time high of $126,000 in 2025. According to crypto analyst Sykodelic, there is a compelling case that the drawdown is done and that the probability of Bitcoin revisiting new lows at this point has dropped massively.
Sykodelic’s rationale leans heavily on the behavior of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart. According to his analysis posted on X, Bitcoin has just printed a powerful bullish break on the weekly RSI, and what makes this particular reading extraordinary is not just where it bounced from but how low it got before doing so.
The weekly RSI has only fallen below 30 on three occasions in BTC’s history, with the most recent being Q1 2026. However, the RSI is now back into the normal zone, and it has broken above a descending trendline that touches lower highs. According to the analyst, this scenario means that the probabilities are now very slim for new lows of any kind.
The Bottom Signals Have Stacked Up
The RSI break did not arrive on its own. Sykodelic noted that multiple bottom indicators have converged simultaneously, a convergence he described as reaching a very high degree. According to him, about 12 important bottom indicators have fired, and Bitcoin is showing it here.
The broader data support his reading. Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to seven-year lows while whale wallets are now accumulating more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, their highest in over two months. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $954.05 million in net inflows so far in April, following a $1.32 billion inflow in March, which was the first positive month since October 2025.
Looking at the chart Sykodelic shared, the weekly price structure shows BTC breaking out of a descending trendline above $70,000, a pattern visible across both the price candles and the RSI panel below. Previous breakouts in 2022, 2023, and early 2025 were characterized by a similar RSI breakout of a descending trendline.
All of this contributes to a market environment where downside continuation becomes harder to sustain. Despite his conviction, Sykodelic stopped short of declaring an unconditional all-clear. The most important thing now is seeing how BTC closes the week. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $75,818, up by 1.4% in the past 24 hours.
