Author: DingDang
Original Title: Vanguard Group Invests $700 Million, Has MSTR Hit Bottom?
On January 20, MicroStrategy (MSTR) once again disclosed that it had increased its Bitcoin holdings by 22,305 BTC, worth approximately $2.13 billion. This marks MicroStrategy's largest single purchase since 2025.
Over the past few months, MicroStrategy's stock price has continued to decline from its high of $457, falling nearly 200%. Skepticism surrounding MicroStrategy has also intensified. From high leverage and refinancing capabilities to Bitcoin price volatility and stock price transmission mechanisms, almost all negative narratives have been revisited. Particularly after the mNAV fell below 1, bearish voices against MSTR have been relentless.
Amid these doubts, a widely circulated article titled "The Fed vs. The Treasury: The Currency War Behind Bitcoin's Plunge" even compared MicroStrategy to a "Bitcoin central bank," suggesting it is caught in a博弈 between the traditional financial system (the Fed, Wall Street, JPMorgan) and the emerging system (the Treasury, stablecoins, Bitcoin-collateralized financing). It also accused institutions like JPMorgan of systematically shorting MSTR through tactics like delayed settlements and options market suppression.
Simultaneously, index provider MSCI signaled that it might remove MSTR from its indices. If this happens, it could theoretically trigger passive selling of approximately $8.8 billion. MicroStrategy's own calculations also indicate that, in extreme scenarios, it might trigger $2.8 billion in stock liquidations.
Panic seems to be escalating... Just as the market was worried about whether MicroStrategy would "sell Bitcoin" or "be able to refinance again," MicroStrategy chose to respond with the clearest and most powerful gesture, embodying the label of a staunch Bitcoin believer.
The Bottom Is Not a Price, But the Moment a Certain Behavior Begins to Appear
In an article published on December 3rd titled "$1.44 Billion Dividend Reserve Fund Finalized, Yet Stock Price Plunges 10%; What Is MicroStrategy's Real Problem?", Odaily Planet Daily pointed out: MicroStrategy's highly concentrated asset structure, reliance on capital market refinancing, and valuation model deeply tied to Bitcoin's price are inherent to its DNA. Precisely because of this, when market trends reverse, these structural characteristics do not "suddenly fail"; instead, they amplify volatility more drastically. Rapid price declines, in turn, reinforce pessimistic narratives, causing risks to be magnified and repeatedly discussed on an emotional level.
Therefore, when almost everyone is extremely bearish and the news is full of negative reports, it often means that the bad news might be getting digested, or may already be priced in. This is why Warren Buffett's quote, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful," is so often cited.
Thus, what the market should truly observe is not whether these bearish factors are valid, but whether, at the moment of extreme sentiment and persistent bad news, there are already "lone warriors" in the market choosing to go long on MSTR?
The answer is: Yes, and there's more than one type.
Vanguard Group: Institutional Funds Begin to Intervene
Vanguard is one of the world's largest asset management companies, with assets under management exceeding $12 trillion. Since the beginning of 2026, two of its index funds have successively disclosed purchases of MSTR, totaling an increase of approximately $707.5 million.
It is important to emphasize that this is not an active expression of a bullish stance, as most of Vanguard's assets are automatically adjusted based on changes in index components. This means the current purchases are likely due to passive index tracking requirements.
On January 20, the Vanguard Value Index Fund (VVIAX) disclosed its first purchase of MSTR stock, totaling 1.23 million shares, worth approximately $202.5 million. This is a value-oriented index fund focused on large-cap companies considered undervalued by the market, with core screening criteria including low P/E ratio, P/B ratio, and higher dividend yield, among other value characteristics.
A similar situation occurred with another mid-cap index fund, the Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund Institutional Shares (VMCIX). The fund disclosed its purchase of 2.91 million shares of MSTR, worth approximately $505 million. MSTR's continued market cap growth made it eligible for inclusion in the mid-cap index, compelling the fund to increase its holdings to match the index weight.
Overall, Vanguard's two purchases are likely mostly tracking behavior by index funds rather than active investment. But it is precisely in this influx of "viewless" capital that a key change is occurring: MSTR is being systematically incorporated into the traditional asset allocation system, becoming a compliant vehicle for Bitcoin risk exposure.
Pension Funds Testing the Waters: The Signal Behind Small Positions
In the more conservative realm of pension funds, the Louisiana State Employees’ Retirement System (LASERS) disclosed on December 31, 2025, that it held 17,900 shares of MSTR, worth approximately $3.1 million, representing 0.02% of its roughly $16 billion in assets.
This is not an aggressive allocation; in fact, the position is extremely small.
But LASERS is the retirement system for public employees in Louisiana, managing retirement assets for over 100,000 state employees (including teachers and other public workers), with a total size of about $15.6 billion. The fund's portfolio is primarily concentrated in US large-cap tech stocks like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. The appearance of MSTR in such a portfolio—can we interpret it as: indirect exposure to Bitcoin through a public company structure is beginning to be considered a discussable, testable option by some state-level public funds? Although LASERS's holding of MSTR is small, it represents a cautious and preliminary interest in crypto assets.
When Active Management Funds Choose the Other Side
Unlike passive index funds, the choices of active management funds are closer to a direct judgment of risk and return.
At the end of Q4 2025, globally renowned quantitative trading and market-making firm Jane Street Group disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 51.72%, from approximately 11.0588 million shares to 16.7784 million shares, while also holding a large number of call options.
In the same quarter, Capital International Investors disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 713.07%, from approximately 1.5589 million shares to 12.6749 million shares.
Furthermore, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that his core trading strategy for the quarter was going long on MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet, using them as high-leverage tools to bet on Bitcoin's trend.
Several asset management firms, including Bernstein, TD Cowen, and The Benchmark Company, also maintained their Buy ratings on MSTR. For instance, TD Cowen stated that although short-term yields are under pressure, related metrics are expected to improve in fiscal year 2027 as Bitcoin's price recovers.
Finally
CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten offered a noteworthy perspective: In this cycle, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has absorbed about 75% of the drawdown, thereby sparing Bitcoin itself from experiencing a decline of the same magnitude. This is because volatility has been transferred from spot Bitcoin to MSTR common stock.
Simultaneously, Michael Saylor's large-scale stock issuance near 1x mNAV essentially acted as the ultimate risk absorber. At this valuation level, new incoming risk was transferred to investors willing to buy MSTR at that price point, rather than continuing to pressure the spot Bitcoin market, thus somewhat inhibiting the formation of a bear market.
The significance of this perspective is that it redefines the relationship between MSTR and Bitcoin. MSTR is no longer just a high-leverage proxy for Bitcoin; it is gradually evolving into an intermediary layer that bears, transmits, and releases Bitcoin's volatility. Because its stock offers higher liquidity, mature short-selling mechanisms, and rich options instruments, when market risk appetite declines, investors might prefer to express their bearish view on Bitcoin by selling or hedging MSTR, rather than directly selling spot Bitcoin.
Of course, these institutions and individuals choosing to go long on MSTR may not necessarily be correct. But their very existence is worth serious observation. Because the structural bottom of the market is often not born after sentiment improves, but at the moment when sentiment remains extreme, yet some have already chosen to act contrarily.
And observing investor behavior regarding MSTR at this stage is also about observing how they view Bitcoin's risk, expectations, and cycle positioning.
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