‘Already seen the low?’ – Inside Cathie Wood’s bet on a new Bitcoin cycle

Bitcoin has rarely looked more fragile, and many analysts are already referring to this as the worst fourth quarter on record, marked by a massive leverage wipeout and a steep drop from its all-time highs.

For over a decade, Bitcoin [BTC] has followed a harsh, predictable pattern: a Halving event, a commendable rally to new highs, and then a brutal 75–90% crash that resets the entire market.

This cycle shaped the crypto world and created the “crypto winter” mentality that traders have come to expect.

Cathie Wood challenges the four-year cycle

But according to Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of ARK Invest, those old rules no longer apply.

Speaking with Fox Business, Wood made a profound declaration: institutional adoption is actively “disrupting” the traditional Bitcoin cycle.

Wood noted that growing participation in U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs had started to change how BTC absorbed volatility. She pointed to a steady decline in its two-year volatility trend over the past five years, adding fuel to the idea of a maturing asset.

Why Bitcoin’s old pattern may be fading

Wood’s view challenges over a decade of beliefs built around Bitcoin’s strict, predictable four-year cycle.

The evidence for this cycle is compelling.

For instance, the 2012 Halving saw Bitcoin surge from under $10 to a peak of roughly $1,100; the 2016 Halving fueled a climb from $400 to nearly $20,000; and the 2020 Halving propelled the asset from $8,500 to a record high of around $69,000.

Each of these explosive rallies was followed by a painful, defining drawdown of 70% to 85%, resetting the stage for the next run.

This predictable pattern, last triggered by the 20th April 2024, Halving, has historically been the sole script for investors.

Yet, this time, the narrative feels disjointed and disruptive.

What is Wood so concerned about?

Wood argued Bitcoin now trades more like a broader risk-on asset, increasingly moving with equities and real estate.

However, even amid this uncertainty, Wood finds encouraging notes, suggesting that,

“The volatility’s going down. We may have seen the low a couple of weeks ago.”

She added,

“We think that the move by institutions into this new asset class is going to prevent much more of a decline.”

Wood acknowledged that Bitcoin has historically played the risk-off role at critical junctures, citing its performance during the European sovereign debt crisis and the US regional banking turmoil of 2023.

However, she now contended that institutional capital has cemented its current identity as a risk-on barometer, moving largely in correlation with equities.

Bernstein and Sigel also weigh in on the Bitcoin 4-year cycle

This followed, the Global research and brokerage firm Bernstein also stated that the traditional crypto cycle is dead.

Echoing a similar sentiment, VanEck’s Matthew Sigel had also noted,

“We believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.”

Bitcoin recently traded near $90,256 after a sharp 2.46% drawdown over the past 24 hours, though ETF inflows remained strong. U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $223.5 million in net inflows on the 10th of December, according to Farside Investors.

Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin prediction

This structural pivot, however, carried consequences even for the bulls.

It is precisely why multinational banking giant Standard Chartered has significantly revised its price expectations.

Following Bitcoin’s recent struggles, Standard Chartered cut its 2025 projection in half, now targeting $100,000 by the close of 2025, down from $200,000.

The bank also delayed its long-term $500,000 forecast from 2028 to 2030.

This shift supports the idea that the era of fast, explosive rallies followed by 75% crashes may be ending.

Final Thoughts

• Bitcoin may no longer be governed by the predictable Halving cycle that shaped a decade of bull and bear markets.
• Institutional adoption is now the dominant force, absorbing sell-offs and dampening the violent 70%–90% drawdowns that once defined crypto winters.