Odaily Guest Market Analyst Cody Feng, Master of Financial Statistics from Columbia University, USA, focused on quantitative trading in US stocks during university and gradually expanded into digital assets such as Bitcoin. He has built a systematic quantitative trading model and risk control system through practical experience; possesses a sharp data-driven insight into market fluctuations and is committed to continuous深耕 in the professional trading field, pursuing steady returns; will delve into BTC technical, macro, and capital flow changes weekly, review and display practical strategies, and preview noteworthy upcoming events for reference.
Core Summary of Trading Weekly Report:
• Strategy Execution (Short-term) Effectiveness Verified: Last week's trading strictly followed the established strategy, successfully completing one short-term operation (1x leverage), cumulatively achieving a 3.4% return
• Core View (Short-term) Verified: The core view proposed last week that "Bitcoin may maintain a range-bound oscillation between $84,000~$94,500" has been precisely validated by the market. Over the past week, the price reached a high of $94,789 and a low of $89,311, highly consistent with the given resistance level of $94,500 and support level of $89,500. This result strongly confirms our judgment of the key levels.
The following will detail the market forecast, strategy execution, and specific trading process.
I. Trading Market Review: (01.05~01.11)
1. Last Week's Short-term Operation Review:
We strictly followed the trading signals (see red and green block signals in Figure 1) from our self-built "Spread Trading" and "Momentum Quantification" models, combined with accurate predictions of market trends, and successfully completed one short-term operation, achieving a cumulative return of 3.4%. Specific transaction details and review are as follows:
1. Transaction Details Summary: (No leverage)
2. Short-term Trading Review:
• Transaction (Profit 3.4%): This operation perfectly executed the "Selling Short at Resistance Level" strategy: First step, when the price rose to impact the key resistance level of 94,500 USD, resonating with the top signal (green dot) of the Spread Trading model, we decisively entered the market to establish a 30% short position; Second step, after the price fell back to the target support area and triggered the model's bottom signal (red dot), we closed the position顺势, locking in profits.
2. Last Week's Trend Prediction and Operation Strategy Review:
1. Clearly stated last week: Focus on observing the gains and losses in the 84,000~94,500 USD area. Before effectively breaking through the upper or lower bounds of the area, the price will maintain a range-bound oscillation pattern.
2. Core Level Review: First resistance watch the 93,000~94,500 USD area, first support watch the 89,500~91,000 USD area.
2. Operation Strategy Review:
• Midline Strategy: If the market maintains the 84,000~94,500 USD range oscillation, continue to hold about 65% of the midline position (short).
• Short-term Strategy: If the price maintains the 84,000~94,500 USD range oscillation, execute operations according to Plan A:
• Open Position: When the price rebounds to the 93,000~94,500 USD area and shows resistance signals, a 30% short position can be established.
• Risk Control: Set the short stop loss above 95,500 USD.
• Reduce Position: When the price falls to the 86,000~86,500 USD area and shows stabilization signals, gradually close part of the short position.
• Close Position: When the price probes near 84,000 USD and shows stabilization signals, close all positions to take profits.
Figure 1
II. Trend Model Judgment: Bitcoin's Future Trend and How to Enter the Market
Combining market operation, the author conducts an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's trend structure from multiple models and dimensions based on a self-built trading system.
1. As shown in (Figure 2), analysis from the weekly chart:
• Momentum Quantification Model: Technical indicators show the momentum line converging near the zero axis下方, while the negative energy column continues to萎缩, indicating a slowdown in the rate of decline. However, the current signals do not confirm that the trend has reversed.
Momentum Quantification Model predicts: Probability of price decline: High
• Sentiment Quantification Model: Blue sentiment line value 52.61, strength zero; Yellow sentiment line value 20.76, strength zero, peak value is 0.
Sentiment Quantification Model predicts: Price pressure and support index: Neutral
• Digital Monitoring Model: The price has been below the bull-bear (yellow-blue line) dividing line for 8 weeks. Last week, the bulls again冲击 this line but fell back after encountering resistance from the bears. This failed impact means the空方 still controls the market dominance.
Digital Monitoring Model predicts: Monitoring (top/bottom) digital signals have not appeared; The weekly K-line closed with a十字星 with an upper shadow, down about 0.57%.
The above data predicts: Bitcoin's weekly chart has entered a bearish trend, be wary of oscillation adjustment risks.
Figure 2
2. As shown in (Figure 3), analysis from the daily chart:
• Momentum Quantification Model: Last week overall showed a "rise first then fall" trend. In the first half of the week, the momentum line successively crossed above the zero axis, and the positive energy column continued to放大; but in the latter half, the momentum line tended to粘合, and the energy column明显萎缩, showing weakened buying momentum.
Momentum Quantification Model predicts: The daily level is in a bull-bear争夺 stage, pay attention to the gain and loss of the zero axis.
• Sentiment Quantification Model: After the daily close last week, the blue sentiment line value was 28, strength zero; the yellow sentiment line value was 62, strength zero.
Sentiment Quantification Model predicts: Pressure and support index: Neutral
The above data suggests: The daily level is at a bull-bear pivot point, the trend direction needs further confirmation.
Figure 3
III. This Week's Market Prediction: (01.12~01.18)
1. This Week's Core View:
• Bitcoin is expected to continue反复 oscillating within the 84,000~94,500 USD range, but it is crucial to observe the bull-bear博弈 at both ends of the range.
• Break Downward: Once it effectively breaks below 84,000 USD, the trend will turn downward, with the first test target at 80,000 USD.
• Break Upward: If it can firmly stand above 94,500 USD, it is expected to start a relatively strong technical rebound行情.
2. Core Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Area: 92,000~93,000 USD area
• Second Resistance Area: 94,500~95,000 USD area
• Important Resistance Level: Near 97,500~99,500 USD.
3. Core Support Levels:
• First Support Level: 89,500~91,000 USD area
• Second Support Level: 86,000~86,500 USD area
• Third Support Level: 83,500~84,500 USD area
• Important Support Level: Near 80,000 USD.
IV. This Week's Operation Strategy (Excluding Sudden News Impact): (01.12~01.18)
1. Midline Strategy:
• Before the price effectively breaks through 94,500 USD, continue to maintain about 65% of the midline position (short).
• If the price successfully breaks through and stabilizes above 94,500 USD, close all midline positions (short), hold coins and observe.
2. Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of the position, set stop-loss points, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute as the operation cycle).
3. To dynamically respond to market changes and combine real-time model signals, we have formulated three short-term operation plans A/B/C:
• Plan A: If the price maintains the 84,000~94,500 USD range oscillation:
• Open Position: According to the core resistance level judgment (see this week's market prediction), when rebounding to the 93,000~94,500 USD area and combined with the hourly chart model top signal, a 30% short position can be established.
• Risk Control: Initial stop loss for short positions is set about 1.5% above the cost price (i.e., 1.015*cost price).
• Close Position: When probing near the core support level and combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.
• Plan B: If the price effectively breaks below the 84,000 USD support:
• Open Position: If it effectively breaks below the core support level, you can chase the decline to establish a 30% short position.
• Risk Control: Initial stop loss for short positions is set about 1.5% above the cost price (i.e., 1.015*cost price).
• Close Position: When probing near 80,000 USD and combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.
• Plan C: If it successfully breaks through and stabilizes above the 94,500 USD resistance:
• Open Position: If it successfully breaks through the core resistance level and combined with model signals, a 30% long position can be established.
• Risk Control: Initial stop loss for long positions is set about 1.5% below the cost price (i.e., 0.985*cost price).
• Close Position: When rebounding to near 97,500 USD and combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.
V. Macro and Liquidity Weekly Observation:(01.12~01.18)
I.密集 FOMC Official Speeches: An Important Window for Recalibrating Policy Expectations
This week, the Federal Reserve system will usher in a rare window of密集 speeches by officials. Multiple Fed Presidents and Governors with voting rights in different years will集中 express their views on economic prospects, inflation trends, and policy stance, providing key information for the market to judge the future monetary policy path.
From the lineup of speakers, it includes both permanent FOMC voters and rotating voters for 2026-2028, covering short-term policy orientation and medium-term decision-making framework, which is of great guiding significance for the interest rate expectation structure.
Main events include:
Tuesday: 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks;
2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks;
FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speaks;
2028 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks;
Wednesday: Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks again;
2026 FOMC voter, Philadelphia Fed President Hacker speaks on economic outlook;
Fed Governor Waller speaks in public;
Thursday: 2026 FOMC voter, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks,同时 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks again;
Fed releases Beige Book on economic conditions;
FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams delivers opening remarks at an event;
Bostic speaks again on economic and policy issues;
Friday: Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on regional economic prospects.
II. Market Focus: Whether to Release Policy Turning Point Signals in Advance
Against the background of marginal decline in inflation and signs of cooling in the job market, the market's core focus is whether officials will continue to emphasize the necessity of "maintaining restrictive policies for a relatively long time" or begin to provide clearer forward guidance for the next phase of policy shift.
It should be pointed out that officials' speeches affect the expectation structure rather than the short-term direction, and their effect is usually reflected in the medium-term adjustment of the interest rate curve, the US dollar index, and the valuation system of risk assets.
III. Potential Impact on Risk Assets and Crypto Markets
If multiple officials maintain a cautious stance, emphasizing that the inflation path is still uncertain, it may suppress risk appetite in the short term;
But if the speeches gradually acknowledge the trend of economic slowdown and weaken the necessity of further tightening policies, it will help reprice medium-term easing.
For加密 assets such as Bitcoin, the core impact of Fed officials' speeches lies in liquidity expectations and discount rate changes. The effect is medium-term and more suitable as a macro pricing reference than a short-term trading signal.
VI. Special Tips:
1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop loss level.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop loss to the opening cost price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop loss to the position of 1% profit.
4. Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit the price makes, move the stop loss level同步 by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in existing profits.
(Note: The above 1% profit trigger threshold can be flexibly adjusted by investors according to their own risk preference and标的 volatility.)
The financial market is changing rapidly, all market analysis and trading strategies need to be adjusted dynamically. All views, analysis models and operation strategies involved in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, and are only for personal trading log use, do not constitute any investment advice or operation basis. The market has risks, investment needs to be cautious, DYOR.
