Has the Train to Bitcoin Already Left the Station? The User Indicator Has Stopped Giving Signals!

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2026-08-21Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-08-21

Introduzione

The Bitcoin price surge has moved the AHR999 indicator, monitored by long-term investors, out of the "accumulation on dips" zone. After approximately 82 days, the indicator has returned to its regular dollar-cost averaging (DCA) range. Data shows the Ahr999 index reached 0.5073, moving it from the "accumulation" zone below 0.45 into the DCA range of 0.45 to 1.20. In the current cycle, this accumulation window lasted from May 29 to August 19. The AHR999 indicator evaluates both short-term, stable returns from Bitcoin purchases and the deviation of the current price from its estimated value. Historically, a reading below 0.45 signals "accumulation on dips," 0.45-1.20 suggests steady DCA buying, and above 1.20 indicates potentially high prices. The indicator is noted as not being a definitive buy/sell signal.

The rise in Bitcoin's price has pulled the AHR999 indicator, monitored by long-term investors, out of the 'bargain buy' zone. The indicator returned to its normal purchase range after approximately 82 days.

According to third-party data, the Ahr999 indicator reached a level of 0.5073 following Bitcoin's recent rally. This moved the indicator out of the 'bargain buy' zone below 0.45 and into the average dollar-cost averaging (DCA) zone ranging from 0.45 to 1.20.

In the current cycle, the period during which the Ahr999 indicator remained below 0.45 began on May 29th and ended on August 19th. According to this indicator, the window for buying Bitcoin at its lowest point lasted approximately 82 days.

The AHR999 indicator assesses both the short-term, stable returns from Bitcoin purchases and the degree of deviation of the current price from the estimated valuation. This indicator is particularly useful for investors employing long-term, gradual purchasing strategies, allowing them to identify periods when the market is relatively cheap or expensive.

Historically, an index reading below 0.45 is interpreted as a 'bargain buy,' staying within the 0.45 to 1.20 range is considered a sustainable purchase zone, and readings above 1.20 represent an area where the price may be relatively high. However, this indicator alone is not considered a definitive buy or sell signal.

*This is not investment advice.

end-content

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Domande pertinenti

QAccording to the article, what is the AHR999 indicator and what does it measure?

AThe AHR999 indicator assesses both the short-term, stable return from buying bitcoins and the degree of deviation of the current price from the estimated valuation. It is particularly useful for investors using long-term, gradual purchasing strategies to identify periods when the market is relatively cheap or expensive.

QWhat recent event caused the AHR999 indicator to leave the 'bottom buying' zone?

AThe recent rise in Bitcoin's price caused the AHR999 indicator to leave the 'bottom buying' zone, moving it into the medium-term dollar-cost averaging (DCA) zone.

QWhat are the three main zones of the AHR999 indicator and how are they interpreted?

AHistorically, an index below 0.45 is interpreted as a 'bottom buying' zone, being in the range of 0.45 to 1.20 is interpreted as a steady purchase zone, and above 1.20 is an area where the price may be relatively high.

QHow long did the AHR999 indicator stay in the 'bottom buying' zone (below 0.45) during the current cycle mentioned in the article?

ADuring the current cycle, the AHR999 indicator remained below 0.45 for approximately 82 days, starting on May 29 and ending on August 19.

QIs the AHR999 indicator considered a definitive buy or sell signal according to the article?

ANo, the AHR999 indicator by itself is not considered a definitive buy or sell signal.

Letture associate

Treasury Secretary's Move to Suppress Treasury Yields Ignites 'Currency Debasement Trade'! Gold Hits Three-Month High, Bitcoin Surges Over 25% in a Single Week

US Treasury Secretary Besant's efforts to lower long-term Treasury yields by announcing expanded buybacks had only a brief market impact. However, this move fueled a "currency devaluation trade," weakening the US dollar while boosting both gold (to a three-month high) and Bitcoin (up over 25% for the week). Analysts attribute this reaction to deepening market concerns over the massive US fiscal deficit and structural pressures keeping long-term rates elevated, including fierce competition for capital from global government borrowing and massive AI sector financing. Despite the Treasury's actions, fundamental forces like growth, inflation, and capital demand are seen as limiting its ability to sustainably suppress yields. Bitcoin's strong positive correlation with gold has reinforced its narrative as a hedge against devaluation. While equity markets have shown resilience, some strategists warn that Treasury yields nearing 5% increase pressure on the dollar and high-leverage assets. Figures like Ray Dalio have advised reducing bond exposure in favor of gold and some Bitcoin, citing US debt risks. Market opinions are divided on the sustainability of the devaluation trade, with some noting the lack of a near-term catalyst for its next leg higher. The underlying tension between the Treasury's desire for lower borrowing costs and the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation and reducing market intervention remains a key theme. Upcoming events like Nvidia's earnings and the Jackson Hole symposium will test whether AI profits can continue supporting stocks and if the Fed aligns more with Washington's preference for easier financial conditions.

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Alexander Shokhin: Business Needs an Interest Rate Below 10% and the Dollar at 90-95 Rubles

Alexander Shokhin, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), has advocated for potentially using "non-market" tools to keep the ruble within a target exchange rate corridor. This, he argues on August 21, would help avoid excessive volatility, though he called the topic a separate discussion. Shokhin had previously raised the idea of a currency corridor in late May, noting the ruble's current exchange rate is not fully market-driven due to a limited currency segment and reduced foreign currency demand. He stated that many business community colleagues propose fixing a corridor, even through non-market methods, to ensure predictability. The business community's key targets, as outlined by Shokhin in late December 2025, are a Central Bank key rate of 12%, inflation of 4–5%, and a US dollar exchange rate of 90–95 rubles by the end of 2026. A turning point for investment, he said, would be lowering the rate to 12% with 6% inflation, though truly comfortable business conditions would require a rate below 10%. He stressed the critical importance of currency predictability for corporate investment decisions. From a data analysis perspective, the idea of a ruble corridor is not new. A similar mechanism was used in Russia from 1995 to 1998, where the central bank held the dollar within fixed boundaries through regular interventions. This regime lasted three years before ending abruptly during the 1998 default, illustrating the fragility of rigid targets under external shocks. The macro-economic link is clear: stricter corridors require more reserves to defend against currency pressure. The key unresolved technical aspect is the specific sources and volume of such interventions given the current market's limited liquidity. Whether this discussion remains theoretical or leads to concrete corridor parameters will be seen in the coming months.

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