The Truth of Trading: A Numbers Game of Patterns and Probabilities

The Glamour Belongs to the 'Epsteins', Saylor Just Wants to Hoard Bitcoin

Summary: The recently unsealed Epstein files revealed an unexpected connection to Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy (now Strategy). In a 2010 email, Epstein's PR coordinator, Peggy Siegal, complained about Saylor's presence at a high-society dinner, describing him as a "zombie on drugs" who was impossible to engage socially and had no personality or understanding of social etiquette. This social awkwardness, however, may have been his saving grace, as it from deeper involvement in the scandal. This perceived personal flaw is presented as a professional strength in his role as a Bitcoin maximalist. Saylor’s company is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 712,647 BTC purchased at an average cost of $76,037. Despite recent market volatility pushing the price down and his company's stock falling 60%, Saylor remains committed to his strategy of buying Bitcoin weekly, famously tweeting "More Orange" to signal his intent to continue accumulating. The article argues that the traits that made him a social outcast—being闷 (boring), uninteresting, and unresponsive to external noise—are the exact same traits that make him a successful "Bitcoin zombie." His strategy is simple and requires no complex decision-making: buy and never sell. While his approach is not advisable for the average investor without his corporate financial tools, the core lesson is that in investing, "interesting" strategies like frequent trading and chasing hype often lead to losses. The most profitable strategies are often boring. The piece concludes that both in investing and in life, the spotlight of "热闹" (excitement/hot spots) is often fleeting and dangerous, while long-term value is found in committed, "boring" work.

marsbit22 min fa

The Era Without Good Answers: Understanding Warsh, Trump, and the Next Four Years of a New Era

The article "An Era Without Good Answers: Understanding Warsh, Trump, and the Next Four Years" analyzes the potential implications of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair under a Trump administration. It argues that Warsh represents not just a shift from dovish to hawkish policy, but a fundamental redefinition of the Fed's role. His appointment signals a move away from the Fed acting as a perpetual backstop for markets and government debt—a role perfected by Chair Powell during crises like the pandemic. Instead, Warsh advocates for monetary and fiscal discipline, opposing unconditional quantitative easing and emphasizing market rules over intervention. However, the US economy's reality—characterized by massive debt, deficit spending, and market dependence on low rates—severely limits any radical change. Warsh's proposed policies of raising rates and reducing the Fed's balance sheet risk triggering market volatility, higher borrowing costs, and political backlash, likely forcing a retreat to familiar stimulus measures. From Trump’s perspective, Warsh is a "controllable reformer" who can publicly push for fiscal restraint, forcing Congress to address unsustainable spending—while also serving as a convenient scapegoat if reforms fail. Ultimately, the core constraint remains America’s debt-dominated economy, which eliminates any possibility of a definitive solution. The coming years will involve managing, not solving, these problems through a painful and iterative process of half-measures and trade-offs—a era defined not by prosperity, but by the explicit return of economic constraints.

marsbit23 min fa

Chainlink slips below $9 as 21% weekly drop hits – THIS is the only hope for bulls!

Chainlink (LINK) has experienced a significant downturn, falling below the $10 support level to a low of $8.99, a price not seen since September 2024. At the time of writing, it was trading at $9.1, reflecting a 7.9% daily and 21% weekly decline. The drop was driven by a massive sell-off, with seller strength overwhelming buyers. Exchange data showed a net inflow of 1.4 million LINK into exchanges, indicating aggressive spot market selling. Concurrently, futures market activity declined sharply, with Open Interest hitting a yearly low of $458 million and a negative netflow, signaling substantial capital outflows. The RSI fell to 20, deep in oversold territory, suggesting strong seller dominance. If the selling pressure continues, LINK could fall further toward $8.3. A bullish reversal would require reclaiming and closing above the EMA20 level at $11.5.

ambcrypto27 min fa

A Year from Now, What Will the Crypto Market Be Trading?

marsbit31 min fa

XRP Slides Below $1.60 Amid Broader Crypto Market Pullback

The broader crypto market experienced a significant pullback, declining over 4.3% and dragging total market capitalization to approximately $2.55 trillion. XRP, the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, was notably affected, falling more than 4% in 24 hours to trade near $1.58. Over the past week, XRP extended losses to nearly 15.7%, trading about 20% below its January highs. Data from Coinglass indicates a 6.06% drop in open interest, suggesting traders are closing positions. Despite the downturn, XRP ETFs saw positive inflows, with $16.7 million on January 30, led by the 21Shares XRP ETF. Technical analysis shows XRP facing bearish pressure, with key support at $1.55 and resistance between $1.62 and $1.67. Indicators like the MACD and an RSI of 26 signal strong oversold conditions, hinting at possible short-term consolidation amid ongoing market volatility.

TheNewsCrypto32 min fa