Authors: Jake Koch-Gallup & Sam Schubert
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Following JTX's launch on July 14, how should we value JTO? This product is reshaping Jito's business model: it's no longer just a price-taker on Solana block space, but has begun pricing user traffic. Our base case implies 57% upside, while our probability-weighted target points to a potential gain of 267%. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market has pulled back, with only the crypto miner sector closing in the green, driven by a wave of AI data center trades.
Zooming out, one trend remains prominent: over the past week, the crypto miner sector surged 27.0%, significantly outperforming all other crypto sectors. It was followed by DEX (+4.6%), Bittensor Ecosystem (+4.3%), and Ethereum Ecosystem (+3.9%). The broader equity market was almost flat over the same period.
This rally has been fueled by a series of AI infrastructure announcements, indicating a shift in how investors value Bitcoin mining companies. On July 20, Hut 8 announced another 15-year, $9.8 billion lease for its Beacon Point campus, covering 352 megawatts. This deal doubles its contracted capacity to 704 MW, bringing the total base contract value to $19.6 billion. On the same day, IREN secured another $2.8 billion in AI cloud contracts, raising its year-end run-rate target from $3.7 billion to over $4.0 billion, with about 85% of its capacity already contracted to clients like Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Perplexity.
The market reacted swiftly. Over the past week, Greenidge gained 59.6%, followed by Cipher (+51.4%), Hut 8 (+31.4%), Riot (+30.4%), and CleanSpark (+22.9%). The common thread is that investors are increasingly viewing these companies as owners of scarce power and data center infrastructure, not just Bitcoin miners. As long as demand for AI compute continues to outpace supply, this narrative is likely to remain a primary catalyst for the sector, even as Bitcoin itself trades sideways.
Valuing Jito's JTX
Today, we dig deeper into valuing JTO. JTX's progress is redefining what the company is. The market still prices it as Solana backend infrastructure—a price-taker dependent on block space activity—whereas JTX (launched July 14) has effectively turned it into a price-setter for user traffic. Our buy thesis hinges on Jito's ability to truly capture this traffic, not a rebound in its traditional business.
While still early, JTX's execution data shows positive signs. Among the over 77,000 trades since launch, the median execution price deviated from the oracle mid-price by just 5.5 basis points, with 77.6% of trades within 25 bps and 29.1% even beating the oracle quote. Execution quality correlates strongly with liquidity: SOL had a median deviation of 3.9 bps, JitoSOL only 0.5 bps, while illiquid long-tail assets showed wider spreads. BAM's advantage is not yet pronounced: 4.6 bps in BAM-dominated blocks vs. 4.8 bps in others.
This structure exists because Jito deliberately sacrificed short-term revenue for long-term optimization of Solana's market structure—it shut down predatory MEV traffic and prioritized BAM, directly cutting into the high-margin Jito tip revenue that once contributed significantly.
Our model remains conservative on the legacy business: no assumption of tip revenue returning to peak levels, no assumption of JitoSOL LST recovery, and no assumption of BAM being fully monetized. The base case instead assumes JTX captures 15% of Solana DEX volume by Q2 2027, generating quarterly net revenue of $5.8 million and total revenue of $8.2 million, annualizing to about $32.7 million, with JTX accounting for roughly 72%. This implies a treasury-adjusted price-to-sales ratio of less than 15x based on Q2 2027 annualized revenue.
Historical context suggests this is cheap: even with declining revenue, the backend infrastructure business has traded at an average P/S of about 38x since early 2025. Applying a conservative 30x multiple to the base case annualized revenue yields a JTO price of $1.18, implying about 57% upside. A 30x multiple is not unreasonable for a growing business with a superior front-end economic model, especially compared to a shrinking business trading at 38x.
The scenario range is wide. The bull case (40% probability) assumes a 25% JTX market share and a 45x multiple, leading to a price of $5.31, a 600% gain. The bear case (10% probability) assumes market share stagnates at 5% and the P/S compresses to a commoditized 15x, leading to a price of $0.36, a 52% decline. The probability-weighted price target across the three scenarios is $2.75, implying about 267% upside from the current ~$0.75. The valuation is highly sensitive to Solana DEX volume, and our weighting leans optimistic because we believe tokenized stocks and real-world assets will scale on-chain, simultaneously boosting trading volume and JTX's market share.
JTX also makes JTO's value capture clearer: an estimated 80% of its revenue is earmarked for buybacks. The base case implies ~$8.6 million in buybacks over the next 12 months, retiring ~1.5% of the treasury-adjusted supply (bull case: ~5.7%). While the flywheel remains small today, it will scale directly with JTX's success.
