Bitcoin has followed its current script before. According to one crypto analyst, it may be doing so again, and if history holds, the next move is not upward.
Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader has outlined a six-step framework on X that places BTC’s current price action directly onto the structure of the 2021 market cycle. Three steps have already been completed. The fourth, he says, is next, and it involves another Bitcoin price crash.
Bitcoin Is Now At The Most Important Stage Of The Playbook
Merlijn’s weekly candlestick timeframe chart divides Bitcoin’s previous cycle into six phases: distribution, small consolidation, redistribution, accumulation, re-accumulation, and then the final rally. In the 2021 section of the chart, BTC first formed a distribution range near the cycle top before entering a smaller consolidation, then a redistribution phase, and finally a deeper accumulation zone after the major bear market breakdown.
The analyst is of the notion that the same structure is now playing out again. Distribution, he said, has already occurred. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,060 in October 2025 before turning lower. Since that peak, Bitcoin’s price has been declining in bear market price action.
The small consolidation phase that followed the distribution top has also been completed, and Bitcoin’s price action since late January is all in the redistribution phase. This caveat is why BTC is currently in the most important part of the technical setup. The next projection based on the setup is not another immediate rally phase, but a crash to an accumulation range much lower than current prices.
The $78,000 Line That Changes Everything
Merlijn placed that possible accumulation zone between $45,000 and $59,000. This would imply that Bitcoin still has one major downside leg left if the 2021-style structure continues to play out.
However, Merlijn’s analysis carries an interesting condition. If BTC holds $78,000, Step 4 is skipped entirely, and the cycle advances directly to re-accumulation and eventually the major run. If $78,000 breaks, the $45,000 to $59,000 accumulation range becomes the next destination before any real bounce. Therefore, the strongest version of the bullish case would be Bitcoin closing multiple weeks above $78,000 and forcing the Bitcoin price to skip the deeper accumulation phase.
That level is now under direct pressure. BTC broke below the $77,000 price level on May 18, but it is now back to trading around $77,500 at the time of writing. This means a drop to $59,000 would represent a decline of about 23.8%, while a fall to $45,000 would mark a deeper correction of 42% from the current price.
