The Bitcoin Vector #33

insights.glassnodePubblicato 2025-12-10Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-10

Introduzione

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Executive Summary

Letture associate

Crypto Market Prices the Verdict: $1.8 Billion Bet on Do Kwon's Sentencing Outcome

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing an extraordinary $1.8 billion in futures trading volume for LUNA and LUNA2 tokens, despite their lack of fundamental value. This surge in speculative activity is directly tied to the upcoming sentencing hearing of Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon in a New York federal court on December 11th. Prosecutors are seeking a 12-year prison sentence for Kwon’s role in the $40 billion Terra-LUNA collapse, while his defense team is arguing for a 5-year term. This 7-year discrepancy has created a high-stakes betting environment. The market is characterized by extreme divergence, with a high volume of short positions (indicated by negative funding rates) and a powerful counter-force of buyers attempting to squeeze those shorts. The article argues that the current LUNA traders are not the original victims of the crash but are now primarily event-driven speculators, quantitative funds, and opportunistic traders. For them, LUNA has been transformed from a failed project into a pure "legal derivative," a volatile instrument whose price is entirely driven by the legal outcome of Kwon's case, devoid of any fundamental anchor. The author concludes that regardless of the sentencing outcome—whether a harsh or light sentence—the event's conclusion will likely cause LUNA's price to collapse. A harsh sentence would reaffirm its zero fundamental value, while a light sentence would trigger a "sell the news" event. This situation exemplifies the crypto market's cold, hyper-efficient ability to price and monetize anything, including justice and a person's freedom, reducing moral judgment to mere noise against the pursuit of volatility and profit.

比推35 min fa

Crypto Market Prices the Verdict: $1.8 Billion Bet on Do Kwon's Sentencing Outcome

比推35 min fa

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