Bitcoin’s underlying structure continues to strengthen. In the early hours of Tuesday, the asset briefly reclaimed $76,000, a level last seen on the 4th of February, extending its recovery momentum.
At the core of this move is a shift in supply dynamics. On-chain data shows a sustained slowdown in Bitcoin inflows to centralized exchanges—key venues where sell pressure typically materializes. This trend points to reduced intent to sell across the market.
Long-term holders tighten supply at key levels
Long-term holders have emerged as the dominant force behind Bitcoin’s [BTC] improving fundamentals.
Data from Alphractal tracking Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)—a metric used to measure whether older coins are being spent—shows that long-term holders have remained largely inactive. In effect, older supply is staying off the market.
More notably, this inactivity has pushed holding behavior to a four-year extreme, last observed in 2022, a period that preceded a strong bullish phase.
This reflects a clear shift in conviction: investors are opting to hold rather than distribute, typically a signal that expected returns outweigh current selling incentives.
The Binary CDD, a supply-adjusted variant of the metric, confirms this trend. It continues to show minimal distribution from long-term holders, reinforcing the view that structural sell pressure remains limited.
This tightening supply backdrop has coincided with a 12.84% price increase since the 9th of March, supporting the broader upward trend.
Supply conditions remain supportive despite ESR rise
From a supply standpoint, market conditions remain constructive, though not without nuance. The Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) has risen to 0.13 after trending upward over the past two days.
Under normal conditions, a rising ESR—indicating a higher proportion of Bitcoin held on exchanges—would suggest increasing sell pressure. However, current price action tells a different story.
Bitcoin’s price has continued to climb alongside the ESR, creating a divergence from typical behavior. Rather than signaling distribution, this suggests that exchange inflows may not be translating into immediate selling, pointing instead to a more complex repositioning of supply.
A closer look at exchange reserves provides further clarity. Total Bitcoin held on exchanges continues to decline, indicating that the broader trend still favors supply contraction.
This dynamic limits the amount of readily available liquidity for sell-offs, reducing downside risk even if short-term sentiment shifts.
Demand shows early signs of strength
While supply continues to tighten, sustained upside depends on the demand keeping pace.
Institutional flows offer a key signal. According to SosoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded six straight days of net inflows since the 9th of March, aligning with the start of the current rally.
These inflows total approximately $968.94 million, marking the longest accumulation streak recorded so far in 2025. This shift suggests renewed institutional participation and a stronger conviction at current price levels.
Although this demand has yet to trigger a decisive breakout, continued inflows could provide the necessary momentum to clear the $75,000 resistance zone and establish a stronger upward trend.
Final Summary
- Long-term Bitcoin holders are increasing their conviction, signaling confidence in near-term upside.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded six consecutive days of inflows, marking their longest buying streak in over a year.
