The Block研究主管:12张图回顾10月份的加密市场状况

DeFi之道Pubblicato 2022-11-02Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-11-02

Introduzione

喜忧参半,价格走势积极但基本面却显得消极。

总体而言,10 月是一个喜忧参半的月份,价格走势积极但基本面却显得消极。

调整后的链上总交易量下降 35.1% 至 2370 亿美元(BTC:-28.5%,ETH:-46.9%):

调整后的稳定币链上交易量下降 24.2% 至 5804 亿美元,连续第 3 个月 USDC 交易量 > USDT;已发行供应量小幅增长 0.3% 至 1371 亿美元,其中就市场份额而言,USDT 上升至 50.7% 和 USDC 下降至 28.5%。年初至今已发行的供应量下降了 4.3%:

BTC 矿工收入增长 7.2% 至 5.899 亿美元,而 ETH 质押者收入大幅下降 74.1% 至 9120 万美元;由于合并后 ETH 发行率大幅下降,并且 10 月是新发行模式生效的第一个完整月份:

9 月份共销毁了 58,115 个 ETH,相当于 7870 万美元。5 月初的销毁量飙升是由 Otherside 土地 NFT 销售引起的。自 2021 年 8 月上旬实施 EIP-1559 以来,总共烧毁了 270 万个 ETH,相当于 86.6 亿美元:

10 月以太坊 NFT 市场交易量进一步下降 25.1%,至 3.775 亿美元。*LooksRare 的交易量自 1 月以来已重新调整,去除了清洗交易量:

合规 CEX 现货交易量下降 25.9% 至 5438 亿美元:

显着的市场份额:Binance 为 71.8%,Coinbase 为 8.6%,FTX 为 6.7%,Kraken 为 2.5%:

GBTC 日均交易量增长 17.3% 至 3600 万美元:

未平仓合约:BTC/ETH 期货⬆(BTC:+7.1%,ETH:+23.1%);交易量:BTC/ETH 期货 ⬇。BTC 月度期货交易量下降 22.9% 至 8010 亿美元:

CME 的比特币期货未平仓合约减少 2.7% 至 14.3 亿美元(日均成交量持平在 13 亿美元):

至于 ETH 期货,月交易量下降 34.2% 至 6310 亿美元:

在期权方面,BTC 的持仓量下降(-11.9%),但 ETH 的持仓量上升(+4.3%),BTC 的交易量上升,但 ETH 期权的交易量下降。BTC 月度期权交易量进一步增加 4.4% 至 141 亿美元(ETH 则降低 6.2% 至 113 亿美元):

Letture associate

Research Report Analysis: Morgan Stanley Details SanDisk SNDK, The Truth About Cloud Data Center Pricing Power and AI Inference Benefits

Morgan Stanley raised its price target for SanDisk (SNDK) from $1100 to $1750 on June 22, maintaining an Overweight rating. The upgrade is driven by AI inference demand reshaping the NAND market, particularly for KV Cache and context window storage in cloud data centers. These cloud clients exhibit price inelasticity and sign long-term contracts, granting SanDisk significant pricing power. SanDisk's New Business Model (NBM) agreements, covering over one-third of FY27 bit shipments with 3-5 year terms and fixed price/price collar structures, are crucial. They are projected to sustain gross margins around 80% even at floor prices, providing a buffer against cyclical downturns. Morgan Stanley forecasts gross margins to surge from 30.3% in FY25 to 86.7% in FY27e. With NAND supply expected to remain tight into 2026/2027 and cloud/data centers becoming the largest end-market, SanDisk holds supply-side pricing power. The company targets 15-19% bit growth via technology transitions, not capacity expansion. Revenue is projected to grow ~6.6x from FY25 to FY27, with EPS rising from $2.74 to $14.73, driven by high-margin cloud business. Key upside catalysts include faster enterprise SSD adoption and edge AI growth. Downside risks involve slower industry growth, competitor capex increases, market share loss, and competition from Chinese players like YMTC. The investment thesis rests on AI-driven structural demand, NBM's margin protection, and sustained supply tightness. The $1750 target implies ~28x FY27e P/E.

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Research Report Analysis: Morgan Stanley Details SanDisk SNDK, The Truth About Cloud Data Center Pricing Power and AI Inference Benefits

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A Threefold Performance Leap! NEAR Achieves 200ms Physical Block Time Limit with SPICE

NEAR's core development team, Near One, has announced its next major protocol evolution: SPICE (Separation of Consensus and Execution). Currently in development, SPICE represents the most significant upgrade before the full implementation of Nightshade 3.0. Its core innovation is decoupling the consensus layer, responsible for ordering transactions, from the execution layer, which processes them. This allows the consensus layer to run at full speed without waiting for transaction execution to complete. Once deployed, SPICE is projected to triple NEAR's block production speed, achieving a 200ms block time, which is considered the physical limit due to the speed of light and network latency. This leap will dramatically reduce transaction latency and finality, with transactions confirming in roughly 0.4 seconds—faster than a typical card payment. The upgrade also enables more complex, long-running transactions and significantly improves user experience for applications like NEAR Intents and near.com. Beyond raw speed, SPICE enhances network scalability and security. It enables deeper parallelism, efficiently distributing workload across shards and improving resource utilization. The simpler block structure and lighter contracts also facilitate formal verification and security auditing. Furthermore, SPICE lays the critical groundwork for future Nightshade 3.0 features, most notably atomic cross-shard transactions, which would simplify complex contract logic and eliminate development hurdles caused by asynchronous execution. The Near One team is actively developing SPICE, targeting deployment in the coming months.

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A Threefold Performance Leap! NEAR Achieves 200ms Physical Block Time Limit with SPICE

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