[Анализ рынка от Huobi] Топ-100 китов продали BTC на 656 млн долл. США, рост HT ликвидировал короткие позиции на 1,31 млн долл. США

HTX NewsPubblicato 2022-10-13Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-10-13

Introduzione

Согласно новой модели для расчета рыночных циклов, курс биткоина (BTC) уже достиг нижней точки текущего медвежьего рынка.

1. Волатильность BTC на минимуме, рынок замер в ожидании

⠀

Дневной график BTC показывает, что амплитуда колебания цены значительно уменьшилась, а волатильность BTC упала до 2,13% и 1,43% 11 и 12 октября соответственно. После интенсивной борьбы в конце сентября ни быки, ни медведи не смогли одержать верх, и цена повисла в районе 20 тыс. долларов. На данный момент по-прежнему наблюдается низкий объём торгов – по всей видимости рынок на данный момент замер в ожидании. Вероятно, с увеличением объём торгов можно будет увидеть отчётливое движение в какую-либо сторону.

⠀

2. Топ-100 держателей BTC продают монеты

⠀

Судя по динамике общего количества монет на балансе 100 крупнейших держателей BTC, есть очевидный признак того, что основные игроки в последнее время продают свои накопления. Объём удерживаемых ими монет от общего количества биткоинов в обращении с 29 сентября снизилось с 14,41% на до 14,23%. Сокращение составило 0,18%, что эквивалентно 656 млн долларов США. Это может оказать дополнительное давление продаж на цену первой криптовалюты.

⠀

3. Ethereum дрейфует в боковике

⠀

На графике Ethereum по-прежнему наблюдается затишье – объёмы торгов невысокие, а амплитуда колебания цены не превышает 3%. Цена продолжает двигаться вдоль средней скользящей полос Боллинджера и может резко качнуться в любую сторону в случае резкого роста объём торгов.

⠀

4. Количество держателей ETH растёт

⠀

Количество активных адресов ETH значительно изменилось, а количество адресов держателей монеты в последнее время значительно возросло. При этом, что количество адресов-получателей ETH также увеличилось, что указывает на то, что больше инвесторов покупают ETH по сниженной цене. Конечно, общее количество активных адресов ETH все еще находится на низком уровне, с ограниченной поддержкой на ближайшее будущее.

⠀

5. Значительный рост коротких позиций HT

⠀

За внезапным и резким ростом HT, биржевого токена Huobi, сразу на 70% последовала значительная ликвидация коротких позиций. 10 и 11 октября было ликвидировано коротких позиций на 390 000 и 380 000 долларов США соответственно. При этом 12 октября было ликвидировано коротких позиций на рекордную сумму – 1,31 млн долл. США, что более чем в 40 раз превысило предыдущий средний показатель.

⠀

Letture associate

Super Spiral Mega-Boom, Micron's Earnings Report Rekindles the Semiconductor Bull Run

On June 25, 2026, Micron Technology released its blockbuster Q3 FY2026 results, significantly exceeding market expectations and reigniting confidence in the semiconductor bull market. Revenue soared to $41.456 billion (vs. ~$35.4B expected), up 346% year-over-year, while GAAP net profit surged nearly 15 times to $28.243 billion. Guidance for Q4 was even more striking, with projected revenue of approximately $50 billion, far surpassing prior estimates. The report highlighted that the AI boom is now fueling growth across Micron's entire product stack, not just HBM. Cloud memory, core data center, SSD, mobile, and automotive businesses all saw revenue growth exceeding 250-600%, with margins hovering around 80%. While HBM4 is already in volume shipment and 2026 capacity is sold out, AI-driven demand is also tightening supply for traditional DRAM and NAND, sustaining a strong pricing cycle. A pivotal development is Micron's shift toward a "demand-first" model. The company disclosed 16 long-term strategic customer agreements (SCAs), most spanning 5 years to 2030, covering about 20% of DRAM and one-third of NAND shipments. These are take-or-pay contracts, with 14 agreements already securing roughly $100 billion in guaranteed future revenue and $22 billion in customer performance assurances. To fulfill this locked-in demand, Micron plans substantial capacity expansion, with Q4 capital expenditure projected at ~$10 billion. This investment, backed by concrete long-term orders rather than cyclical speculation, marks a historic change for the memory industry. Following the earnings release, Micron's stock surged 16% after-hours, lifting the broader semiconductor sector globally. The report served as a powerful signal that AI infrastructure build-out is accelerating, with memory positioned as a central protagonist in the ongoing narrative.

Odaily星球日报7 min fa

Super Spiral Mega-Boom, Micron's Earnings Report Rekindles the Semiconductor Bull Run

Odaily星球日报7 min fa

Deciphering the Ethereum Foundation's New Structure: Reaffirming Self-Sovereignty Amid Institutionalization Trends

Summary: The Ethereum Foundation (EF) has announced a major restructuring, laying off 20% of its staff and introducing a new five-layer operational framework. This move aims to clarify the EF's mission and reaffirm Ethereum's core principle of self-sovereignty amidst growing institutionalization in the crypto space. The five layers are: 1. **Protocol Layer**: Focuses on maintaining Ethereum's foundational "CROPS" values—Censorship-resistant, Robust, Open, Private, and Secure. This involves core technical work like secure hard forks and mitigating toxic MEV. 2. **Access Layer**: Ensures users can practically exercise self-sovereignty through actions like reading the chain and making transactions. A key principle is the "zero option," meaning a trusted, non-intermediated path must always exist as an alternative to any centralized service. 3. **User Layer**: Bridges the protocol and access layers by grounding EF's work in the real needs of users and organizations. This is seen as crucial for moving beyond a purely research-driven approach and ensuring development effectively serves the ecosystem. 4. **Community Layer**: Responsible for building and maintaining consensus around Ethereum's core values both internally and externally. This involves guarding against centralization, upholding technological neutrality, and preventing short-term commercial interests from undermining CROPS principles. 5. **Institutional Layer**: Manages EF's engagement with institutions, but with the precondition of self-sovereignty. The goal is not to make it easier for institutions to control users, but to demonstrate how Ethereum's technology can enable better integrations. The article argues that while institutional adoption brings legitimacy, it also risks diluting crypto's foundational ethos of decentralization. The new structure represents EF's effort to navigate this tension, upholding its core mission while actively engaging with a broader, more complex ecosystem.

marsbit25 min fa

Deciphering the Ethereum Foundation's New Structure: Reaffirming Self-Sovereignty Amid Institutionalization Trends

marsbit25 min fa

Interpreting the Ethereum Foundation's New Structure: Reasserting Self-Sovereignty Amid Institutionalization Trends

Ethereum Foundation (EF) has restructured into five distinct operational layers, aiming to clarify its mission while reaffirming the core values of self-sovereignty. This reorganization, accompanied by a 20% staff reduction, focuses on: Protocol Layer (upholding the CROPS principles: Censorship-resistant, Robust, Open, Private, Secure), Access Layer (ensuring users have non-custodial pathways for key actions), User Layer (bridging development to real user needs), Community Layer (maintaining and propagating Ethereum's value consensus internally and externally), and Institutional Layer (engaging with institutions without compromising self-sovereignty). The article discusses the tension between Ethereum's foundational decentralized ideals and the current trend of institutionalization in crypto. It argues that while welcoming institutional use is necessary, the ecosystem must not sacrifice its core tenets—like neutrality and resistance to centralized control—to short-term commercial interests. The new structure positions the EF to safeguard Ethereum's "public good" attributes, ensuring it remains a resilient and open platform even as the broader market evolves.

链捕手29 min fa

Interpreting the Ethereum Foundation's New Structure: Reasserting Self-Sovereignty Amid Institutionalization Trends

链捕手29 min fa

OpenRouter: How Did This 'AI Model Relay Station' Achieve a $10 Billion Valuation?

OpenRouter: The Model Router Building a $10B+ Company This article explores OpenRouter, a platform that aggregates access to over 400 AI models from 70+ providers (like OpenAI, Claude, Gemini) through a single API. It has grown into a unicorn with a $1.3B valuation by 2026, processing massive scale—reaching 100 trillion tokens monthly. Its core value isn't just being a "model supermarket." For developers building real-world AI applications, managing multiple models for different tasks (e.g., cheap models for titles, powerful ones for long articles) is complex. OpenRouter acts as a critical "model scheduling layer," handling routing, failover between providers, cost optimization, and enterprise features like zero-data-retention policies and budget controls. OpenRouter's business model is a "toll fee": it charges a small platform fee (5.5%) on purchased credits while passing model costs directly to users. Its revenue scales with the tokens flowing through its system, which saw explosive growth as AI apps evolved. Key growth drivers include: 1) The explosion of specialized models, increasing choice complexity; 2) AI apps shifting focus from performance to cost optimization; 3) The rise of AI agents that require more reliable, multi-step model calls. However, risks remain. Large enterprises or cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud) could build similar internal gateways. Its position between model suppliers and developers could also create future tension over pricing and data control. To stay ahead, OpenRouter must deepen its enterprise features and prove it's more than just a request forwarder.

marsbit45 min fa

OpenRouter: How Did This 'AI Model Relay Station' Achieve a $10 Billion Valuation?

marsbit45 min fa

Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, We've Reached a New Low

Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000, Hitting a 20-Month Low Bitcoin fell below the key $60,000 psychological level again, reaching a low of $59,023—its lowest point in approximately 20 months, dating back to October 2024. While it later recovered slightly to around $60,600, this marks its third significant breach of $60,000 this year. The downturn is attributed to two primary factors. First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing their longest streak of net outflows since launch, with nearly $5.94 billion withdrawn over 30 days. This creates sustained selling pressure as Authorized Participants sell Bitcoin to meet redemptions. Second, shifting macroeconomic expectations are adding pressure. Strong U.S. job data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials have increased market pricing for potential rate hikes, reversing the earlier liquidity-driven bullish sentiment and prompting a shift away from risk assets like Bitcoin. Analyst views are mixed. 21Shares maintains a bullish long-term outlook, expecting prices to recover towards $100,000, citing historical post-halving cycles and substantial ETF holdings as a base. In contrast, Arthur Hayes predicts a potential bottom around $40,000 within six months due to persistent Fed hawkishness. CryptoQuant suggests, based on on-chain data, that the market may not find a bottom until prices fall below the average investor cost basis around $53,000, potentially extending the bearish phase into late 2026 or early 2027. The immediate focus is on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed signals. Lower-than-expected CPI could offer relief, but confirmation of sticky inflation or continued ETF outflows may lead to further downside pressure. Bitcoin's ability to hold above $60,000 remains a critical test for the near-term market direction.

Odaily星球日报1 h fa

Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, We've Reached a New Low

Odaily星球日报1 h fa

Trading

Spot

Futures