[Key interpretation] $30 billion bet on strong shock in cryptocurrency market, ETH bears took the lead in betting down

HuobiPubblicato 2022-10-11Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-10-12

Introduzione

The BTC price is close to the support level, paying attention to the variable expectations.

1. BTC local turnover rate increased

BTC's 4-hour K chart shows that although the recent price decline is limited, the trading volume has obviously rebounded. That is to say, BTC has a clear volume signal in the local price range, driving the price to lower prices. This shows that investors began to gradually increase the trading frequency at the decline stage, but did not obtain the corresponding low suction returns. Therefore, short-term investors can be the driving factor for BTC to decline.

2. BTC whale selling remains high

Recently, the proportion of BTC's whale sales has remained at a high level, and the value in the shock remained around 0.48, which means that BTC still faces great downward pressure. Although BTC's recent decline is limited, it is already the seventh trading day in the adjustment stage. At the same time, BTC dropped to about 19000 US dollars, and the rebound has not been confirmed. At present, the possibility of effective support under BTC is reduced, and attention is paid to the risk of sign retreat.

3. The trend of ETH is sluggish, seeking for further exploration

In terms of the daily K line, the ETH price continued to fall, and the closing price did not drop much, but the trend of downturn continued. At present, ETH maintains horizontal operation at the platform of 1280 dollars, and the horizontal trading time has reached 20 trading days, indicating that ETH still tends to shrink. In terms of trading volume, the current low trading volume suggests that investors are less enthusiastic about entering the market, and they still need to pay attention to the downside risk when holding currencies.

4. ETH multi empty ratio is still lower than 1

The strength of the long contract relative to the short contract is still low. After the long short ratio reached 0.897 on October 8, the value is still lower than 1. From October 9 to October 11, the long short ratio of ETH was 1.001, 0.951 and 0.932. According to this judgment, the strength of short sellers has obviously occupied an advantage, making it possible for ETH to break its position and fall for some time. Before ETH continues to fall below $1200, we have to pay attention to the position risk.

5. The overall market position rebounded

Recently, although the market is in the adjustment stage, the position data has not dropped significantly, but maintained at a short-term high. Numerically, the overall position data displayed on October 11 remained at $29.98 billion, the highest level since May. According to this judgment, although BTC, ETH and other mainstream currencies are in a weak operation stage, the market is on the eve of change. Therefore, in view of the low volatility of BTC and ETH at present, it may already be an important position for position adjustment to anticipate price fluctuation.

Letture associate

The Real Battlefield of AI Lies in the 'Dark Forest'

The article "AI's Real Battlefield is in the 'Dark Forest'" discusses the shifting dynamics in the global AI landscape, contrasting the strategic directions of Chinese and U.S. AI developers. Chinese companies like Alibaba (with its "HappyHorse" video model), ByteDance (Seedance 2.0), and Kuaishou (Kling 3.0) have taken the lead in text-to-video generation, surpassing OpenAI’s now-discontinued Sora. These models are deeply integrated into their parent companies’ content ecosystems (e.g., Douyin, Kuaishou), serving to reduce content creation costs and enhance user engagement rather than operating as standalone profit centers. In contrast, U.S. firms are pivoting toward high-stakes enterprise and security applications. Anthropic’s Claude Mythos model demonstrates advanced capabilities in autonomously discovering and exploiting software vulnerabilities, prompting concern at the highest levels of U.S. financial and governmental institutions. OpenAI responded with its own GPT-5.4-Cyber, signaling a strategic shift from consumer-facing products to enterprise-grade tools focused on cybersecurity and programming. The divergence is attributed to fundamental differences in resources and market structures. U.S. companies, backed by vast computational resources (e.g., Amazon and Google supply Anthropic with substantial funding and TPU access), can pursue deep, specialized R&D in high-value B2B sectors. Chinese firms, facing significant compute power constraints and a less mature enterprise SaaS market, have found success by leveraging their massive consumer platforms and optimizing for cost-efficiency. The article warns that the AI race is entering a "dark forest" phase—a reference to competitive dynamics where cybersecurity capabilities could determine digital sovereignty. While Chinese models like Zhipu AI’s GLM-5.1 show promise in narrowing the gap in coding proficiency, the author stresses that achieving parity in security-critical AI will require asymmetric strategies, including greater investment in coding models, adaptation to domestic hardware, and exploring international markets in the Global South.

marsbit1 h fa

The Real Battlefield of AI Lies in the 'Dark Forest'

marsbit1 h fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片