This Week in Coins: Ethereum Takes Another Week of Losses, XRP Soars

DecryptPubblicato 2022-09-24Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-09-24

Introduzione

ETH is down 19% since the merge. XRP ballooned this week when news broke that the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple may soon come to a conclusion.

The prices of crypto market leaders Bitcoin and Ethereum dipped on Wednesday following news that the United States Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates by another 75 basis points to stem the effects of inflation.

Back in June, when the Fed first raised interest rates by 75 basis points this year, many remarked that the hike was the steepest of its kind from the central bank since 1994.

In July, the Fed called another 0.75% hike. Bitcoin and Ethereum’s prices both actually jumped within an hour of the announcement. This isn’t typical market behavior, since interest rate hikes make it more expensive to borrow, which in turn means that investors are more likely to dump their riskier assets.

In any case, neither leading cryptocurrency held any ground this time around. Bitcoin fell .53% over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko, and currently trades for $19,086, while Ethereum sank 7.5% to $1,328.

Several other leading cryptocurrencies posted double-digit percentage losses this week, among them COSMOS, down 12% to $14.39. Ethereum Classic (ETC) dropped 15% to $28.74, and Near Protocol (NEAR) dipped 10.5% to $3.79.

But some names escaped contagion and managed to post double-digit percentage gains: Stellar (XLM) blew up 16% to $0.1243, Cronos climbed 16% to $0.1228, and Algorand (ALGO) ballooned 38% to $0.408.

The biggest rally was from XRP, which blew up 44% in one week to $0.5232. The pump followed news earlier this week that both Ripple and the SEC have filed motions for summary judgment in the $1.3 billion lawsuit, each maneuvering to dismiss the lawsuit before trial.

The SEC took Ripple to court in December 2020 for allegedly selling XRP as an unregistered security.

The week after the merge

Of course, ETH was already on a downslide before the inflation news from the Fed this week.

Data from Glassnode showed that predictions the merge would be a case of “buy the rumor sell the news” largely played out. “It is quite unsurprising that profits were taken where profits were available,” Glassnode wrote in its Monday merge. “Funding rates have since completely reverted to neutral [after sinking to an all-time low of -1,200% in the leadup to the merge], suggesting much of the short-term speculation premium has dissipated.”

Glassnode had in August reported an overwhelming demand to purchase call options for ETH at a premium, calling it a “state of extreme bullish bias” for the asset’s price in September. However, the same report noted that ETH's implied volatility was higher on downside price predictions than upside predictions, indicating that traders were “paying a premium for 'sell-the-news' put option protection post-Merge.”

Ethereum miners were cashing out big in the run-up to the merge. According to OKLink, which pulls data across a dozen different mining pools, including F2Pool, Binance, and BTC.com, miners sold a total of 14,785 ETH, totaling $19.73 million in transactions from September 9 to the day of the merge on September 15. The largest sale came on September 14 when miners offloaded nearly 8,032 Ethereum.

Gensler vs Ethereum

In a federal lawsuit against a crypto influencer filed on Monday, the SEC suggested that it believes the U.S. government has jurisdiction over all Ethereum transactions.

According to a sentence in the lawsuit’s 69th paragraph, the SEC claims it can sue Ian Balina not only because his case concerns transactions made in the United States, but also because the fact that most of the Ethereum network’s validators are in the U.S. means the entire blockchain falls under the government’s purview—or so the SEC is arguing.

Gensler has previously said that Bitcoin is a commodity, but many think his silence on Ethereum may be a sign that he views the blockchain as essentially a U.S. securities exchange. Just last week, Gensler said proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies, which allow holders to passively earn returns through staking, could be classified as securities: “from the coin’s perspective…that’s another indication that under the SEC's "Howey test," the investing public is anticipating profits based on the efforts of others.

MicroStrategy buys more Bitcoin

MicroStrategy isn't any less bullish on Bitcoin in its post-Saylor era: On Monday, the software firm added another 300 BTC, at the time worth around $6 million, to its treasury. MicroStrategy was already the single biggest corporate HODLer in the world, but the additional Bitcoin now means the company has 130,000 Bitcoins, or about $2.45 billion at the current price.

MicroStrategy’s stock dropped 6% at the start of trading on Monday on the Bitcoin buy, but had recovered by the following day.

Letture associate

Kalshi and Coinbase Receive CFTC Approval, Ushering in the Most Regulation-Friendly Era for the Crypto Industry?

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) took two landmark actions on May 29. It approved Kalshi's application to list a Bitcoin perpetual futures contract and issued a no-action letter to Coinbase Financial Markets. This allows Coinbase to offer certain perpetual futures products to U.S. customers through a subsidiary, with digital assets permitted as collateral. These moves, coupled with a new CFTC policy statement, provide a clearer regulatory pathway for perpetual contracts in the U.S., moving them from a regulatory gray area. CFTC Chair Mike Selig stated this is a key step for U.S. crypto leadership but noted the policy is not yet permanent. The article explains that CFTC's previous reluctance stemmed from legal ambiguities, as perpetual contracts lack an expiration date. However, such contracts dominate global crypto derivatives, accounting for ~78% of centralized exchange volume in 2025, forcing U.S. regulators to adapt to competition from offshore platforms like Hyperliquid. The approvals offer two compliance paths: Kalshi's direct listing and Coinbase's model using foreign futures. This is expected to attract institutional capital back to regulated U.S. venues, stimulate the launch of more products like ETH perpetuals, and enhance U.S. competitiveness in the global crypto derivatives market. The author suggests this may signal a "regulatorily friendly" era for crypto.

marsbit3 h fa

Kalshi and Coinbase Receive CFTC Approval, Ushering in the Most Regulation-Friendly Era for the Crypto Industry?

marsbit3 h fa

Sharplink CEO: Ethereum's Future Is Playing Out Now

This article presents a perspective from Joseph Chalom, CEO of Sharplink and a former BlackRock executive. He argues that current controversies surrounding the Ethereum Foundation (EF) and ETH's price miss the bigger picture for institutional adoption. Chalom asserts that Ethereum is decisively winning in the three key attributes institutions value most: trust, security, and liquidity. He cites its dominance in stablecoin settlement, tokenized real-world assets (RWA), and high-value DeFi as evidence. This success is attributed to the EF's consistent, long-term protocol development over a decade, including major upgrades like The Merge and a robust future roadmap. He defends Ethereum's decentralization as a core strength, not a weakness, stating institutions require a neutral infrastructure not controlled by any single entity. Comparing ETH to Amazon, Chalom suggests critics focusing on short-term price are missing its potential to become the foundational settlement layer for the entire global financial system. The article encourages a contrarian "be greedy when others are fearful" investment approach, drawing parallels to Warren Buffett's strategy and BlackRock's continued investment during crypto winters. Chalom concludes that while the EF correctly focuses on core protocol attributes (CROPS: Censorship Resistance, Capture Resistance, Open Source, Privacy, Security), a leadership gap exists in market-facing narrative and institutional adoption. He calls for ecosystem participants, including his own firm Sharplink, to become more vocal advocates to support Ethereum's impending "supercycle" of institutional adoption.

链捕手3 h fa

Sharplink CEO: Ethereum's Future Is Playing Out Now

链捕手3 h fa

Deconstructing the Investment Methodology of the 'Stock God Serenity' in One Article

"Serenity's Bottleneck Investment Methodology: A Deep Dive" This article dissects the "bottleneck point investment" strategy of the pseudonymous investor Serenity, known for exceptional returns (YTD 4502.45%). The core methodology involves identifying a major technological trend (e.g., AI compute expansion), mapping its supply chain, and investing early in the most irreplaceable, supply-constrained upstream component before the market fully values it. The framework is broken down into a five-factor model: 1. **Deterministic Demand**: Anchored in a large, validated trend. 2. **Constrained Supply**: The component must be difficult to replicate or scale quickly. 3. **Low Market Attention**: Opportunities exist where coverage is sparse. 4. **Value Capture**: The company must have pricing power, high margins, and customer lock-in. 5. **Catalyst**: A near-term event to trigger price discovery (earnings, customer ramp, etc.). The article provides illustrative examples like $AXTI (InP substrates for photonics), $RPI (edge hardware for AI agents), and $AAOI/$LITE (components for cloud ASICs). To apply this method, a six-step process is outlined: identify the macro trend, map the supply chain, pinpoint the true bottleneck, gather evidence (client wins, certifications), assess risks ("anti-thesis table"), and size the position according to research depth. Crucially, the article notes significant limitations: risk of overfitting inferences from sparse data, valuation challenges for pre-revenue companies, liquidity/reflexivity risks due to Serenity's own market influence, and survivor bias amplified by a strong AI bull market. The key takeaway is to emulate the rigorous research process—finding the trend, the bottleneck, the evidence—rather than blindly copying specific stock picks, emphasizing the discipline of "walking through the narrow gate."

marsbit4 h fa

Deconstructing the Investment Methodology of the 'Stock God Serenity' in One Article

marsbit4 h fa

One Article Deconstructs the Investment Methodology of 'Stock God Serenity'

This article deconstructs the "bottleneck point" investment methodology of the renowned investor known as "Serenity" (aleabitoreddit). Characterized by a YTD return of over 4500%, the strategy involves identifying a major, confirmed trend (e.g., AI data center expansion), mapping its supply chain, and then pinpointing a critical, hard-to-replace upstream bottleneck that the market has yet to fully price in. The core framework is a five-factor model: 1) **Certain Demand** from a clear megatrend; 2) **Constrained Supply** with high barriers to entry and slow replication; 3) **Low Market Attention**, where the company is overlooked; 4) **Value Capture** potential through pricing power and market share; and 5) a near-term **Catalyst** to trigger re-evaluation. Case studies include **$AXTI** (InP substrates for photonics), **$RPI** (edge hardware for AI agents), and companies like **$AAOI** and **$LITE** tied to hyperscaler-specific ASIC demand (e.g., Microsoft Maia, Amazon Trainium). The article provides a six-step guide for applying this approach: 1) Identify a validated macro trend; 2) Map the entire supply chain; 3) Find the true bottleneck; 4) Gather concrete evidence (e.g., filings, customer contracts); 5) Perform rigorous risk assessment ("anti-thesis"); 6) Match position size to depth of research. Key limitations are also noted: the risk of narrative overfitting, difficulty in valuing early-stage companies, Serenity's own market-moving influence creating reflexivity, and potential survivorship bias due to the AI bull market. The essence of the method is not to copy picks but to adopt the research process: find the trend, locate the bottleneck, verify with evidence, assess valuation, await a catalyst, and then invest with discipline. The philosophy is summarized as "walking through the narrow gate"—seeking non-consensus, structurally vital points within booming industries before they become widely recognized.

链捕手4 h fa

One Article Deconstructs the Investment Methodology of 'Stock God Serenity'

链捕手4 h fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片