[Key interpretation] Whale trade 263000 BTC, ETH selling pressure remained high

HuobiPubblicato 2022-09-20Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-09-21

Introduzione

BTC bottomed out and rebounded, the fluctuation intensity was not high, and the adjustment was not over.

1. BTC volume rebound

Although BTC is very close to a further decline and a new low, the competition for key points is fierce, and BTC still shows a cross star rebound on the daily K line chart. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume in the daily K line chart rebounded again. The trading volume of BTC in the past two weeks was very strong, and there was an opportunity for repeated price shocks above $18000. On the news side, BTC's rebound strength is still within a small range since the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates further.

2. Low activity of BTC long-term investors

The recent trading trend of long-term investors in BTC is not active, which means that long-term investors have low enthusiasm for BTC trading, and the corresponding selling pressure is limited. Judging from this, BTC short-term support still exists, but it does not rule out the possibility that investors in short-term and medium-term trading panic trading. On the negative side, the dollar index is still at an all-time high, the highest in 20 years. This shows that BTC may be at a disadvantage in terms of competing with the US dollar for liquidity, and its impact on the overall price cannot be ignored. It is worth noting that the pace of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve is still not likely to end, making the strength of the dollar against BTC will not weaken in a short period of time, reducing the possibility of a significant rise in BTC.

3. BTC whale activity increased

In terms of the trading trend of Jujing, the number of large transactions with more than 500 BTCs rebounded to a high of 526 in a short period of time, amounting to 263000 BTCs. The trading volume of Jujing continued to rebound, and the market was in a state of warming trading heat. In particular, the trend of main players trading at low prices is relatively clear. In terms of fluctuation intensity, BTC's fluctuation intensity is still low in the near future. Investors who scramble for a rebound need to be relatively cautious to avoid losing money during the price pullback.

4. ETH touches the support line of the section

In the short term adjustment stage of ETH, the price fell back to the range low of USD 1318 corresponding to 61.8% in Fibonacci. Judging from the current cumulative price pullback, the largest decline reached 37%. At present, the decline is large, and the support can focus on the strength of the price rebound of 1318 dollars. In terms of trend, ETH has a relatively short sideways consolidation time. Whether it can successfully reverse 61.8% in Fibonacci still needs to be observed. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume at the K-line level on the ETH day was stable, and the volume performance on some trading days was relatively low, so the low suction signal was not clear enough, and the risk of holding currency was still high.

5. ETH's main selling pressure growth

The first 10 transactions flowing into the exchange showed signs of rebound. On September 19, the number reached 5390 ETH, indicating that short-term selling pressure still rebounded. On September 7 and 15, the top ten selling pressures on ETH's exchanges also rebounded similarly, with the number rebounding to 7476 and 8016 ETHs. This shows that the market is still in a state of decline.

Letture associate

Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

Analysis of Bitcoin Trading Strategies: Why Celebrity Forecasts and Classic Models Fail, Leaving Only These Four Reliable Indicators This analysis examines the failure of common Bitcoin prediction methods and identifies four reliable indicators for constructing a trading strategy. The author reviewed all major BTC prediction approaches from 2017-2025, categorizing them into three groups: celebrity price targets (consistently over-optimistic), analytical models like Stock-to-Flow (broken post-2022), and on-chain signals. The key finding is that more data often creates confusion, not clarity. The strategy discards unreliable elements: celebrity predictions (incentivized to be extreme), pure models (invalidated by post-ETF market changes), and the Fear & Greed Index used alone (too many false signals). Four reliable indicators were selected: 1. **MVRV Z-Score:** Accurately identifies cycle bottoms when entering its green zone (e.g., 2018, 2020, 2022). Note: Its ability to call tops is now ineffective post-2024. 2. **SOPR (28-day MA):** Consistently signals bottoms when below 1.0, indicating holders are selling at a loss. 3. **ETF Net Flow:** A crucial post-2024 metric showing institutional momentum (e.g., sustained inflows = buying). 4. **Macro Liquidity (Fed policy & M2):** Sets the overall directional bias (e.g., bullish during easing cycles). The core strategy involves waiting for a multi-signal共振 (resonance). For example, a bottom signal requires MVRV in the green zone + SOPR < 1.0. A top signal requires overheated on-chain data + sustained ETF outflows. Macro policy sets the overall direction. The Fear & Greed Index is only used as a weighted confirmatory signal, never alone. Action is only taken when three or more indicators align. The author automated this into a monitoring system that sends Telegram alerts only when signals trigger. As of the article's date (April 15, 2026), the system showed a strong bottom signal: extreme fear (F&G=12), MVRV in the buy zone, and SOPR < 1.0. The only contrary signal was weak ETF flows. Historically, such triple on-chain共振 has preceded 100%+ returns. The conclusion emphasizes building a personal framework over relying on external predictions, allowing for iterative improvement and customization based on individual risk tolerance.

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Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

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