(51/52) Weekly Market Watch | 5th Week of December | The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting

marsbitPubblicato 2025-12-29Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-29

Introduzione

**Weekly Market Watch: 5th Week of December - The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting** **Market Overview & Key News:** The final week of December saw increased market volatility due to the holiday period and the expiration of major options contracts, though a clear directional trend was absent. Bitcoin closed the week nearly flat, with a marginal gain of 0.55%, while trading volume hit its lowest weekly level since July. Normal trading activity and liquidity are expected to resume after the New Year. **Macro Outlook: Strategic Commodity Clash** A significant development was China's announcement that, starting January 1, 2026, it will require special permits for white silver exports. This move is anticipated to have a major impact on global metal supply chains. In the US, October durable goods orders fell 2.2%, worse than the expected -1.5%. However, Q3 GDP growth was revised up to a strong 4.3%, significantly higher than the forecasted 3.3%, indicating resilience in consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure. **Key Upcoming Economic Event:** * December 31st, 3:00 AM EST: Release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. **Weekly Crypto Roundup:** * **Institutional Moves:** Morgan Stanley is reportedly exploring offering crypto trading services (including spot and derivatives) to its institutional clientele. A major Russian bank executed the country's first crypto-backed loan, providing funds to a Bitcoin miner. * **Exchange Developments:** Coinbase announced the acqui...

Hot News: The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting

  • Affected by the holiday period and the expiration of major options last Friday, market volatility intensified, but there is a lack of clear directional conviction. Bitcoin closed basically flat this week, with a slight increase of 0.55%, setting the lowest weekly trading volume since July. The market expects trading activity and liquidity to return to normal after the New Year.

Macro Outlook: Strategic Conflict in Commodities

  • Starting from January 1, 2026, the Chinese government will require special permits for silver exports. This move is expected to have a significant impact on the global metal supply chain.

  • U.S. durable goods orders in October fell by 2.2%, lower than the market expectation of -1.5%. However, U.S. third-quarter GDP grew by 4.3%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 3.3%, indicating resilience in consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Includes:

  • Wednesday, December 31, 3:00 AM: FOMC Meeting Minutes

Weekly Cryptocurrency Overview: Aave DAO vs. Aave Labs

  • According to reports, Morgan Stanley is exploring the provision of cryptocurrency trading services for its institutional client base, including spot and derivative markets.

  • Russian banking giant Sberbank executed the country's first cryptocurrency-collateralized loan, providing funding to Bitcoin miner Intelion Data.

  • Coinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to strengthen its predictive market products. The transaction is expected to be completed in January 2026.

  • Kraken announced plans to enter the predictive market space, aiming to launch the service in 2026.

  • Travel giant Ctrip has integrated stablecoin payments, allowing global users to book travel services using digital assets.

  • Strategy increased its reserves by $748 million, bringing its total cash holdings to $2.19 billion, in addition to holding 671,268 BTC.

Layer 1 and Layer 2 Networks

  • The Solana Foundation launched Kora, an audited fee intermediary and signature node designed to enable gas-free transactions and secure remote signing.

  • Polygon announced that major payment processor Shift4 has launched stablecoin settlement on its network, providing 24/7 payment services to tens of thousands of merchants.

  • Spire Labs deployed the first Base-based application chain on Celo, utilizing Self Protocol's privacy-preserving "human proof" to resist Sybil attacks.

  • Flow Network suffered an attack due to a layer vulnerability, resulting in a loss of $3.9 million.

Dapps

  • Hyperliquid launched an investment portfolio margin feature on its mainnet, with initial conservative limits and added a BLP yield feature on its Earn page.

  • The Polymarket team has indicated that developing and launching its dedicated layer 2 network is now the platform's primary task.

  • Kamino Finance launched PRIME, a new yield primitive on Solana offering an 8% low-correlation APY, backed by real-world HELOC credit provided by Figure.

  • GMX is now live on the Ethereum mainnet, allowing users to trade over 100 perpetual contract markets, trade on 23 spot markets, and provide liquidity through GM or GLV.

  • Maple Finance facilitated its largest single loan of 500 million USDC.

  • Resolv announced the expansion of its arbitrage market assets to HYPE on Hyperliquid and SOL on Binance Exchange, with an initial allocation of 10%.

  • Hinkal Protocol partnered with Resolv Labs to provide private trading for USR and RLP.

  • Mellow Protocol will integrate Fluid and Resolv on Plasma into its stRATEGY vault, allowing for modular institutional vault access without the need for custom engineering.

  • F(x) Protocol launched FX100 Perp, a new decentralized perpetual contract trading platform featuring non-liquidatable positions (positions will be rebalanced to reduce leverage) and leverage of up to 100x.

  • The ZK processor protocol Brevis released the tokenomics of its BREV token, which will serve as the payment, collateral, and governance token for the ProverNet market.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

  • The governance proposal for Aave DAO to take control of the Aave brand assets has been rejected.

  • The Uniswap community passed the Unification proposal and burned 1 billion UNI, and will activate the fee switch and implement other protocol changes after the timelock.

  • LayerZero's third fee switch public vote failed to reach quorum, meaning the protocol fees will remain closed for at least another six months.

  • The Bitcoin community is engaged in intense debate over the potential threat of quantum computing to the Bitcoin network. Among them, BIP-360 was introduced into the discussion to implement an anti-quantum signature solution.

Token Unlocks

  • IO tokens will unlock on December 31, accounting for 6.09% of the supply.

  • KMNO tokens will unlock on December 31, accounting for 6.92% of the supply.

  • EIGEN tokens will unlock on January 1, accounting for 7.52% of the supply.

  • LA tokens will unlock on January 5, accounting for 5.94% of the supply.

  • MOVE tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 5.78% of the supply.

  • LINEA tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 6% of the supply.

  • HOME tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 4.16% of the supply.

  • RAIN tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 11% of the supply.

  • US tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 6.32% of the supply.

  • BB tokens will unlock on January 13, accounting for 10.9% of the supply.

  • ZKC tokens will unlock on January 15, accounting for 6.71% of the supply.

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Crypto di tendenza

Domande pertinenti

QWhat is the main reason for the increased market volatility mentioned in the article?

AThe increased volatility is attributed to the holiday period and the expiration of major options contracts from the previous week, though there is a lack of clear directional conviction.

QWhat significant policy change by the Chinese government is expected to impact the global metal supply chain starting January 1, 2026?

AThe Chinese government will require special permits for white silver exports, which is expected to have a significant impact on the global metal supply chain.

QWhich company announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to enhance its prediction market products?

ACoinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to strengthen its prediction market products, with the transaction expected to be completed by January 2026.

QWhat new feature did Hyperliquid launch on its mainnet according to the article?

AHyperliquid launched an investment portfolio margin feature on its mainnet, with initial conservative limits, and added a BLP yield feature to its Earn page.

QWhich token is scheduled to unlock on January 1st, representing 7.52% of its supply?

AThe EIGEN token is scheduled to unlock on January 1st, representing 7.52% of its supply.

Letture associate

7 Months After the Collapse of Huiwang, Southeast Asia's Escrow Platforms Undergo a Major Reshuffle

Following the collapse of Huione Pay—dubbed the "Alipay of Southeast Asia"—seven months ago, the region's underground financial guarantee platform sector is undergoing a significant reshuffle. This power vacuum has been swiftly filled by emerging platforms such as XinBi, Tiger/Navigator, JinBei (renamed JinBo), Dali/Tiancheng, and FullyLight. These platforms, operating largely via Telegram and offering services like escrow for illicit transactions, have absorbed the vast user base and markets left behind by Huione. While positioning themselves as "trust intermediaries," their primary clientele consists of networks involved in online scams, money laundering, illegal gambling, and even human trafficking. For instance, the Tiger/Navigator platform explicitly provides "escrow" services for kidnapping-for-ransom operations ("强押车交易"). Data underscores the immense scale: Huione alone processed over $103 billion in cryptocurrency payments and facilitated over $31 billion through its escrow market before its downfall, linking it to Cambodia's notorious Prince Group. Since its collapse, competitors have seen explosive growth. For example, the XinBi platform has accumulated over $1.6 billion in total USDT revenue, while platforms like NewPay, OkPay (under Dali), and FullyLight Wallet collectively processed over $4.8 billion in USDT in a single year. This ecosystem thrives in regions like Cambodia and Myanmar, where regulatory gaps allow these platforms to act as critical financial infrastructure for sprawling cybercrime industries, from scam compounds to online casinos. The article concludes that the moniker "Southeast Asian Alipay" is a misnomer, obscuring the platforms' fundamental role in enabling serious criminal enterprises rather than representing legitimate financial innovation.

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7 Months After the Collapse of Huiwang, Southeast Asia's Escrow Platforms Undergo a Major Reshuffle

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The Changing Landscape: What Are Crypto VCs Experiencing?

Title: The Shifting Landscape of Crypto Venture Capital The era of dedicated crypto venture capital funds is undergoing a significant transformation. Once essential for navigating the sector's complexity and high risk, these specialized funds are now facing an identity crisis as the market matures. This shift mirrors historical patterns in other specialized investment classes like cleantech and SPACs, where initial information advantages dissipate as technologies become mainstream and integrated into existing industry frameworks. The article argues that crypto is reaching a critical inflection point, transitioning from a "building phase" to an "integration phase." Major players like Stripe, BlackRock, and Visa now engage with crypto not for its novel mechanics but as a foundational financial infrastructure. Their needs—regulatory compliance, banking partnerships, distribution channels—align with traditional fintech, a domain easily understood by large, generalist funds like Sequoia and Founders Fund. This evolution creates a "barbell effect" within the VC landscape. On one end are massive, diversified platforms that can incorporate crypto as one vertical among many. On the other are small, nimble funds focused on niche, experimental projects. The middle ground—medium-sized dedicated crypto funds—is being squeezed out. Their typical fund size makes it impossible to generate sufficient returns solely from early-stage crypto bets, yet they cannot compete with giants for later-stage deals. Consequently, leading crypto-native firms like Paradigm and Framework Ventures are expanding into AI, robotics, and other sectors, driven partly by LP pressure for better returns amid a broader VC DPI crisis. Others, like Dragonfly and a16z, have narrowed their crypto focus predominantly to financial infrastructure like stablecoins, reframing the sector's core narrative. For crypto entrepreneurs, this consolidation presents challenges. While generalist funds offer larger checks and broader resources, crypto projects now compete fiercely with AI for attention and capital within these firms. Furthermore, the long-term, non-commercial foundational work that built the ecosystem—funded by dedicated crypto VCs—is less likely to attract generalist capital focused on direct returns. The conclusion is that "crypto investor" as a standalone category is becoming obsolete, akin to "internet investor." Crypto is becoming a baseline infrastructure layer. The future will see a barbell structure: large-scale growth financing handled by generalist funds, while pioneering, speculative projects are funded by small, specialized vehicles. The dedicated crypto funds of the 2017-2021 boom, which incubated core infrastructure, are giving way to this new, bifurcated reality.

Foresight News55 min fa

The Changing Landscape: What Are Crypto VCs Experiencing?

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As Consensus Accelerates, What Are Young Investors Betting On?

Title: As Consensus Forms Faster, What Are Young Investors Betting On? In the rapid evolution of tech investment, a new generation of young investors is navigating a landscape where AI, robotics, commercial aerospace, and quantum computing are advancing simultaneously. Traditional investment logic based on financial models is giving way to a need for deep technical understanding and the ability to act before industry consensus forms. An analysis of trends from the "WAIC FUTURE TECH" list of young investment leaders reveals key shifts in focus. The first major trend is the movement of AI from the digital screen into the physical world. Investment is shifting from large language models and chatbots towards embodied AI, robotics, AI hardware, and edge computing. While demonstrations generate excitement, the real challenge lies in achieving scalable, reliable, and cost-effective delivery in complex real-world environments like factories and logistics. Success depends not just on algorithms but on the integration of sensors, actuators, and control systems. Second, the competitive focus for large models is moving beyond raw capability toward building an "intelligence flywheel." The goal is to create self-reinforcing systems where user interaction generates data, improving the model, which in turn enhances the user experience and attracts more engagement. Companies that successfully embed AI into workflows to create these closed-loop systems can build lasting value that isn't easily erased by the next model upgrade. Third, facing a potential bottleneck in high-quality human-generated data, investors are looking at new underlying technologies. Reinforcement learning and self-play, as demonstrated by AlphaGo Zero, offer paths for AI to generate its own experience. Scientific foundation models, which aim to build general AI capabilities for fields like life sciences and materials discovery, represent a non-consensus direction that could unlock new frontiers of knowledge and data. Finally, in deep-tech areas like quantum computing, commercial aerospace, and space-based infrastructure, patient capital is essential. These fields have long, uncertain development and validation cycles involving complex engineering, supply chains, and regulations. Investment here requires a long-term view, focusing on foundational team capabilities and the eventual emergence of market demand, even if commercial returns are distant. Collectively, these trends illustrate how young investors are adapting to a new era. They are learning to make earlier, technically-informed judgments, balance hype with real-world viability, and provide the patient capital needed to build the deep-tech foundations of the future.

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As Consensus Accelerates, What Are Young Investors Betting On?

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Discussioni

Benvenuto nella Community HTX. Qui puoi rimanere informato sugli ultimi sviluppi della piattaforma e accedere ad approfondimenti esperti sul mercato. Le opinioni degli utenti sul prezzo di HOT HOT sono presentate come di seguito.

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