纳指“V形”大反转!闪迪股价“腰斩”,可口可乐股价创新高,苹果市值突破5万亿美元

华尔街见闻Pubblicato 2026-07-31Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-07-31

Introduzione

美股走势分化,芯片股抛售潮延续,半导体股大跌,可口可乐股价创新高

中国基金报记者 伊万

美东时间7月28日(周二),美股走势分化,三大指数涨跌不一,芯片股抛售潮延续,半导体股大跌。

截至收盘,道指收涨537.24点,涨幅为1.03%,报52747.32点;纳指走出“V形”反转后微跌0.22%,报24876.91点;标普500指数涨0.21%,报7428.78点。

宏观方面,美联储即将公布最新利率决议,市场焦点已不仅限于是否维持利率不变,而是转向本次FOMC会议可能出现的反对票数量。多家机构认为,两名鹰派官员——达拉斯联储主席洛根和克利夫兰联储主席哈马克——将在本次会议上投出反对票。

美国政府正在加速推进针对前沿AI模型的监管框架,相关草案两周前已分发给OpenAI、Anthropic和谷歌,三家公司随后联合提交了修改意见。该框架要求AI科技巨头在公开发布最先进模型前接受长达30天的政府审查。

存储、光通信板块携手跳水

闪迪股价7月以来已“腰斩”

美东时间7月28日,美股存储、光通信板块抛售延续,费城半导体指数大跌超4%。

存储板块的美光科技、SK海力士跌超8%,闪迪跌超14%,7月以来股价已“腰斩”;光通信板块,康宁重挫超12%,Coherent跌超10%。此外,戴尔科技、AMD跌超8%,英特尔跌近6%。

摩根大通TMT行业专家Josh Meyers指出,科技板块真正的广泛出清尚未到来。

苹果盘中市值首次突破5万亿美元

美东时间7月28日,苹果盘中市值触及5万亿美元的历史新高,成为继英伟达之后,全球第二家触及该市值的上市公司。

可口可乐股价再创历史新高

美东时间7月28日,可口可乐收涨5.04%,股价再创历史新高。

财报显示,可口可乐第二财季可比营收达到133.7亿美元,同比增长约6%,高于分析师平均预期的131.6亿美元;净利润为44.3亿美元,折合每股收益1.03美元,高于上年同期净利润38.1亿美元和每股收益0.89美元。公司同时上调了全年业绩指引。

油价大跌

国际油价大跌也是推动道指走强的一大因素。当日,WTI原油下跌4.1%至每桶79.16美元,布伦特原油跌5.0%至83.93美元,油价已连续三日下挫。

截至收稿,WTI原油报82.49美元/桶,布伦特原油报83.01美元/桶。

Letture associate

Analyzing the Impact of AI on Economic Growth and Productivity

**Title: Analyzing AI's Impact on Economic Growth and Productivity** This article examines three contrasting views on AI's influence on economic growth and productivity. **The Optimistic View** posits that AI, especially through automating R&D ("recursive self-improvement"), could dramatically accelerate growth, even triggering a technological "singularity" with explosive, potentially infinite, economic expansion. **The Moderate/Mainstream View** acknowledges AI's productivity benefits but emphasizes significant real-world constraints that could limit its impact. These include: limited cost savings per task, structural ceilings on which jobs and industries are "exposed" to AI, adoption bottlenecks (e.g., compute, energy, regulatory hurdles), and the "weak link" effect where non-automatable tasks cap overall gains. Consequently, the realized AI dividend may be far lower than optimistic projections, with estimates typically ranging from 0.1% to 1.3% annual productivity growth. **The Pessimistic View** stems from two strands. The first aligns with the moderate view but applies extremely conservative assumptions about task exposure and efficiency gains, yielding minimal projected impact. The second introduces a demand-side critique: if AI primarily replaces rather than augments labor, it could depress labor's share of income, weaken consumer demand, and create a "demand trap" that ultimately stifles growth, unless offset by redistribution policies. **The authors' assessment** is nuanced: * **Short-term (1-2 years):** AI will support growth primarily through investment spending, not significant productivity gains. * **Medium-term (3-5 years):** Three potential paths emerge based on AI demand and bottleneck severity: 1. **"Optimistic Path":** High demand, few bottlenecks. Rapid productivity gains but risk of major job displacement and social conflict without redistribution. 2. **"Moderate Path" (most likely):** High demand but significant, surmountable bottlenecks. Leads to moderate productivity gains, financial market volatility (K-shaped returns), and sectoral job losses. 3. **"Pessimistic Path":** Low demand or severe bottlenecks. Minimal productivity and growth impact, triggering financial market corrections but allowing a smoother societal transition with less labor disruption. * **Long-term:** AI holds potential for a major productivity revolution and prosperity. The conclusion stresses that no path is smooth. Technologically "optimistic" outcomes could be socially detrimental, while "pessimistic" technological diffusion might be more socially stable. Policymakers must monitor developments and prepare balanced responses to manage economic, financial, and social sustainability.

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Analyzing the Impact of AI on Economic Growth and Productivity

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