Shiba Inu's bear run can continue for another 7 months – Here’s why

ambcryptoPubblicato 2026-03-22Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-03-22

Introduzione

Berdasarkan analisis, Shiba Inu (SHIB) menunjukkan tanda-tanda bearish yang kuat dalam jangka panjang. Dua metrik kunci, yaitu persentase suplai yang menguntungkan (hanya 3,07%) dan rasio MVRV yang menyimpang jauh dari rata-rata, mengonfirmasi sentimen pesimis yang mendalam di antara pemegangnya. Pola ini mirip dengan kondisi bear market sebelumnya yang berlangsung selama berbulan-bulan. Jika tren historis terulang, diperkirakan fase bearish ini dapat berlanjut hingga September 2026. Meskipun ada berita potensial seperti ETF yang diusulkan oleh T.Rowe Price, hal tersebut kemungkinan tidak cukup untuk mengubah tren bearish yang telah mengakar. Struktur harga pada timeframe tinggi tetap lemah, dan setiap kenaikan harga kemungkinan hanya akan menjadi peluang jual, bukan awal dari breakout.

Memecoin teratas belum menunjukkan kemajuan signifikan dari posisi sebelumnya. Di antara empat memecoin teratas berdasarkan kapitalisasi pasar, Shiba Inu [SHIB] dan Pepe [PEPE] hanya bergerak dalam rentang 2% dari harga mereka seminggu lalu.

Memecoin [M] telah naik 10% dalam seminggu terakhir, sementara Dogecoin [DOGE] turun 3,8%.

Shiba Inu mengalami penurunan 0,51% dari minggu lalu. Kurangnya momentum Bitcoin dalam beberapa hari terakhir kemungkinan mempengaruhi aset-aset teratas di sektor memecoin. Kinerja jangka pendek yang biasa-biasa saja ini hanyalah kamuflase.

Bahkan jika SHIB mengalami kenaikan 10% atau lebih minggu depan, sentimen pemegang jangka panjang akan tetap bearish. Dua metrik membantu menjelaskan pesimisme di balik meme ini.

2 area kekhawatiran untuk bull Shiba Inu

Metrik persentase suplai yang menguntungkan melacak persentase suplai beredar SHIB yang menghasilkan keuntungan. Saat ini, angkanya hanya 3,07%. Sebagai perbandingan, Oktober 2023 mencatat 3,93% suplai yang menguntungkan, angka terendah dalam beberapa tahun terakhir.

Februari 2026 menunjukkan metrik ini mencapai 2,86%. Suplai beredar baru-baru ini berada pada level keuntungan pasar bear. Kerugian pemegang yang dalam berarti sentimen sekitar memecoin ini sangat pesimis.

Rasio MVRV dan deviasinya dari rata-rata sepanjang masa juga dapat digunakan untuk menandai ekstrem dalam harga SHIB. Selama pasar bear 2022, MVRV berada antara 0,5 dan 1 deviasi standar di bawah rata-rata.

Ini merupakan deviasi ekstrem yang berlangsung dari Mei 2022 hingga Januari 2023. Jika tren yang sama terulang, Shiba Inu dapat mengalami pasar bear yang berlanjut hingga September 2026.

Profitabilitas rendah dan nilai MVRV yang sangat rendah mengkonfirmasi pasar bear multi-bulan yang akan datang untuk SHIB. Bahkan berita, seperti ETF yang diusulkan oleh T.Rowe Price yang dapat diperluas ke aset volatile seperti Shiba Inu, mungkin tidak cukup untuk mengangkat memecoin dari tren bearish-nya.

Struktur harga pada timeframe yang lebih tinggi bersifat bearish. Pantulan menuju swing high akan memberikan peluang penjualan dan kecil kemungkinannya menjadi perdagangan tipe breakout.

Ringkasan Akhir

Suplai beredar yang menguntungkan dan deviasi ekstrem dalam MVRV dari rata-rata sepanjang masa mengkonfirmasi bahwa Shiba Inu berada dalam pasar bear siklis.
Jika tren historis terulang, pasar bear saat ini kemungkinan akan bertahan hingga September 2026.

Domande pertinenti

QApa yang menyebabkan performa bearish Shiba Inu (SHIB) dalam jangka panjang?

ADua metrik utama yang menunjukkan sentimen bearish adalah persentase suplai yang menguntungkan hanya 3,07% dan rasio MVRV yang menyimpang ekstrem dari rata-rata sepanjang masa, mengonfirmasi pasar bearish siklis.

QBerapa persen suplai beredar Shiba Inu yang saat ini menghasilkan keuntungan?

APada saat artikel ditulis, hanya 3,07% dari suplai beredar SHIB yang berada dalam kondisi untung, yang merupakan level terendah seperti yang terlihat di pasar bearish.

QSampai kapan bear market Shiba Inu diprediksi berlangsung berdasarkan tren historis?

ABerdasarkan pola deviasi MVRV selama bear market 2022, diprediksi bear market saat ini dapat berlanjut hingga September 2026.

QApakah berita seperti ETF yang diusulkan T.Rowe Price dapat mengubah tren bearish SHIB?

AMenurut artikel, bahkan berita seperti ETF yang mungkin mencakup aset volatile seperti SHIB kemungkinan tidak cukup untuk mengangkat memecoin dari tren bearishnya.

QBagaimana performa Shiba Inu dibandingkan dengan memecoin top lainnya dalam seminggu terakhir?

ASHIB turun 0,51% dalam seminggu, sementara PEPE juga stagnan (-2%), DOGE turun 3,8%, dan hanya Memecoin (M) yang naik 10%.

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