关于以太坊合并,你需要了解这10点

DeFi之道Pubblicato 2022-07-14Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-07-14

Introduzione

以太坊正逐渐走向工作量证明(PoW)机制的终局。

以太坊合并是加密历史上最强大的催化剂之一,它的到来正在迅速逼近。

随着以太坊逐渐走向工作量证明(PoW)机制的终局,我们有必要了解一下以太坊合并后的 PoS 时代的 10 个重要特征:

1. 合并后,ETH L1 费用不会下降

以太坊合并(The Merge)的目的是弃用以太坊的 PoW 共识机制,用 PoS 代替。费用是区块空间需求决定的函数,而不是共识机制。如需更低的费用,请使用 L2(已上线)执行交易。

2. 在合并后的 6-12 个月窗口期,不会有来自 ETH 发行的结构性抛售压力

在启用以太坊 2.0 质押提款之前,用户还无法提取质押的 ETH 和对验证者的发行/区块奖励。但是,费用小费(basefee 被烧掉)和 MEV 可以被提取。

3. 合并后 ETH 通胀率从 4.3% 降至 0.22%

如果我们假设每年的费用为 500,000 ETH,则合并后每日 ETH 发行量将从 14,250 ETH/天下降到 736 ETH/天。发行量减少了 95%——这意味着每天可以出售的 ETH 减少 95%(开放质押提款后)

4. PoS 下的 ETH 会比 PoW 下的 ETH 具有更好的安全性(攻击链的成本更高)

这个话题会一直被争论到死——但在数学上,PoS 下的 ETH 比 PoW 下的 ETH 攻击成本更高。

5. 由于 EIP-1559 的费用消耗,ETH 在大多数场景中具有通货紧缩的货币政策

简而言之,即使质押 1 亿枚 ETH 和 0 费用,ETH 通胀率也只有 1.51%

6. 合并后,ETH 质押收益率增加 50%(保守估计)

当前的 ETH 质押收益率为 4.2%。合并后,包括交易费用(费用小费)和 MEV 进入验证者,质押收益率将跃升至 6% 以上

7. 合并后,ETH 将作为原始抵押品和价值存储补充 BTC 的用例

BTC 巩固了其作为“数字黄金”的叙述——这很棒。

ETH 将既是“数字债券”(质押收益率 = 无风险利率),也是 DeFi 的主要抵押资产。

8. 合并后,以太坊区块链将比比特币区块链更具可持续性

除了 PoS 比 PoW 更节能(用电量减少 99%)之外,以太坊的成本也更低。

9. ETH 扩容来了!

合并将 ETH 的共识引擎换成 PoS 以提高安全性。安全的 L1 有利于 L2 Rollup 的发展。

Polygon、Arbitrum、StarkWare、Zksync 等的扩展正在全速前进。

10. 合并后,以太坊的升级旅程不会结束

虽然 L1 以太坊的技术规范在合并之后会大大僵化,但技术需要继续发展。

数据分片、轻客户端、质押提款、状态管理等 - 即将到来。

重复一遍:以太坊合并是区块链历史上最令人印象深刻的工程壮举之一。

在完全 PoS 制度下,以太坊将具有提高安全性、通过 L2 扩展、发展其 DeFi 和 NFT 平台并超越比特币的经济结构。

Letture associate

Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

Analysis of Bitcoin Trading Strategies: Why Celebrity Forecasts and Classic Models Fail, Leaving Only These Four Reliable Indicators This analysis examines the failure of common Bitcoin prediction methods and identifies four reliable indicators for constructing a trading strategy. The author reviewed all major BTC prediction approaches from 2017-2025, categorizing them into three groups: celebrity price targets (consistently over-optimistic), analytical models like Stock-to-Flow (broken post-2022), and on-chain signals. The key finding is that more data often creates confusion, not clarity. The strategy discards unreliable elements: celebrity predictions (incentivized to be extreme), pure models (invalidated by post-ETF market changes), and the Fear & Greed Index used alone (too many false signals). Four reliable indicators were selected: 1. **MVRV Z-Score:** Accurately identifies cycle bottoms when entering its green zone (e.g., 2018, 2020, 2022). Note: Its ability to call tops is now ineffective post-2024. 2. **SOPR (28-day MA):** Consistently signals bottoms when below 1.0, indicating holders are selling at a loss. 3. **ETF Net Flow:** A crucial post-2024 metric showing institutional momentum (e.g., sustained inflows = buying). 4. **Macro Liquidity (Fed policy & M2):** Sets the overall directional bias (e.g., bullish during easing cycles). The core strategy involves waiting for a multi-signal共振 (resonance). For example, a bottom signal requires MVRV in the green zone + SOPR < 1.0. A top signal requires overheated on-chain data + sustained ETF outflows. Macro policy sets the overall direction. The Fear & Greed Index is only used as a weighted confirmatory signal, never alone. Action is only taken when three or more indicators align. The author automated this into a monitoring system that sends Telegram alerts only when signals trigger. As of the article's date (April 15, 2026), the system showed a strong bottom signal: extreme fear (F&G=12), MVRV in the buy zone, and SOPR < 1.0. The only contrary signal was weak ETF flows. Historically, such triple on-chain共振 has preceded 100%+ returns. The conclusion emphasizes building a personal framework over relying on external predictions, allowing for iterative improvement and customization based on individual risk tolerance.

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Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

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