Koin Utama Anjlok Parah + Koin Aneh Berkeliaran, ETH Tembus 3000, XRP Rontok 1.9, Peluang Ganda Buy Bottom RATS + Short MERL Muncul

金色财经Pubblicato 2025-12-16Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-16

Introduzione

Pasar crypto lagi mengalami polarisasi ekstrem: aset utama anjlok, sementara beberapa koin kecil meroket. ETH turun 5%, tembus $3000 dan kini bergerak di bawah level itu. Support kritis ada di $2920; jika tembus, bisa lanjut ke $2800. XRP juga kolaps, jatuh ke $1.855. Level penting berikutnya adalah $1.82. Di tengah tekanan bearish, beberapa aset kecil menunjukkan momentum kuat. RATS cetak 3 hari hijau berturut-turut dengan pola W-bottom, peluang buy ada di sekitar $0.000035 dengan target $0.00005. Sebaliknya, MERL yang naik 17% diduga pump palsu, rekomendasi short di zona $0.46-$0.48 dengan target $0.40. ASTER menunjukkan pola wedge turun, lebih baik tunggu konfirmasi support sebelum entry. FOLKS menunjukkan tren turun konsisten, peluang short dengan leverage rendah. Intinya: ETH dan XRP masih bearish, hindari buru-buru beli. RATS jadi pilihan buy, MERL dan FOLKS untuk short. Fokus pada beberapa aset saja, hindari FOMO.

Lingkungan kripto kembali mempertunjukkan "dua sisi yang bertolak belakang"! ETH, XRP ikut terjun bebas bersama Bitcoin, sementara koin kecil ada yang melonjak gila-gilaan ada yang menjebak, dijelaskan satu per satu, hindari jebakan dan tangkap peluang~Gratis masuk grup + Q:3260353596

? ETH: Anjlok 5% tembus 3000! $2920 jadi garis penyelamat

Ethereum kali ini benar-benar tidak bisa bertahan, tidak berhasil mempertahankan $3150 dan langsung terjun bebas, level support $3120, $3050, $3000 semua jebol, terendah menghantam $2916, sekarang bergoyang di bawah $3000, bahkan jatuh di bawah rata-rata 100 jam, momentum bearish sangat kuat.

Mau rebound? Lewati 3 level dulu:

Level pertama $2980, sedikit naik bisa saja ketahanan;

Level kedua $3050 (level retracement 50% dari gelombang penurunan sebelumnya);

Tulang keras adalah $3080, jika tembus baru bisa menuju $3120, $3175.

Jika rebound gagal, perhatikan level support: $2950→$2920→$2880→$2800, jika $2920 tidak bisa dipertahankan, kemungkinan besar akan turun lebih dalam. Indikator teknikal juga tidak mendukung, MACD menguat di area bearish, RSI di bawah 50, momentum penurunan belum berhenti.

? XRP: Jebol $1.95! $1.85 dalam bahaya

XRP baru saja mau rebound di $2.02, tapi langsung dipukul kembali, jatuh menembus $2.00, $1.95, terendah $1.855, sekarang bahkan $1.90 dan rata-rata 100 jam tidak bisa dipertahankan, grafik hourly juga membentuk garis tren bearish, resistensi menekan di $1.980.

Kunci rebound lihat 3 harga: $1.90→$1.92→$1.95, bisa bertahan di $1.92, baru ada harapan menyerang $1.98, $2.05; jika tidak bisa menembus $1.90, perhatikan level support $1.855, jika jebol lagi akan menuju $1.82, $1.765. MACD berakselerasi di area bearish, RSI di bawah 50, jangka pendek masih condong bearish.Gratis masuk grup + Q:3260353596

? RATS: Bangkit kuat 3 hari hijau berturut-turut! Buy bottom di $0.000035

Berlawanan dengan koin utama, RATS baru-baru ini kuat secara terbalik, daily 3 hari hijau berturut-turut, bahkan membentuk pola W bottom, MACD berdiri di atas zero axis, momentum semakin kuat. Kemungkinan besar selanjutnya akan mengisi upper shadow, menyerang level tekanan $0.00005.

Saran operasi: Koreksi jangka pendek ke sekitar $0.000035, yang suka trading gelombang bisa buy bottom spot dengan posisi kecil, ambil profit di sekitar $0.00005, rasio harga-kinerja bagus~Gratis masuk grup + Q:3260353596

⚠️ MERL: Paksa naik 17% umpan long! $0.46-0.48 open short saat tinggi

Operasi MERL ini terlalu jelas, 24 jam naik 17% melonjak ke $0.48, sekarang tarik ulur di $0.46-0.47, sepenuhnya adalah bandit yang memaksa naik di window likuiditas rendah untuk menipu long.

Saya pribadi bearish! Kemungkinan besar selanjutnya adalah skema "tekanan jual ekspektasi ->磨底 perlahan -> panic selling", disarankan langsung open short di sekitar $0.46-0.48, jangan tunggu bandit menggambar candle hijau besar untuk menipu kelompok long terakhir. Target jangka pendek lihat dulu $0.4, turun hingga $0.35 juga mungkin.Gratis masuk grup + Q:3260353596

? ASTER: Tusukan ke $0.765 menarik kembali! Tunggu peluang buy bottom

ASTER menusuk ke bawah ke $0.765 lalu langsung menarik kembali, kebetulan menginjak level Fibonacci 0.618 (tapi tusukan saat pembukaan referensi意义不大), sekarang terlihat seperti akan membentuk falling wedge,底盘稳不稳 masih harus diamati.

Yang belum masuk jangan buru-buru, tidak perlu chase, tunggu buy bottom di dasar baru bertindak, selanjutnya随时调整策略, hindari terjebak tusukan.

? FOLKS: Meledak lalu turun perlahan! Peluang short jangka panjang dengan leverage rendah

FOLKS benar-benar "satu pikiran surga satu pikiran neraka", meledak一波 lalu mulai turun perlahan, sekarang banyak koin kontrak baru main skema ini.

Saran operasi: Setelah puncak muncul bisa short jangka panjang dengan leverage rendah, asal bisa tahan, profit mungkin很高! Tren turun perlahan ini一旦形成,短期内 sulit berbalik, tidak perlu takut kehilangan peluang.Gratis masuk grup + Q:3260353596

Kesimpulan: ETH, XRP jangka pendek condong bearish, perhatikan level support kunci jangan盲目 buy bottom; RATS bisa tunggu koreksi布局, MERL disarankan short, ASTER tunggu dan lihat, FOLKS cocok short jangka panjang leverage rendah. Lingkungan kripto sekarang perpecahan严重, operasi jangan serakah, perhatikan 1-2标的 saja~

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Domande pertinenti

QApa yang terjadi dengan harga ETH dan level support kritisnya menurut artikel?

AETH turun 5% dan jatuh di bawah $3000, dengan level support kritis di $2920. Jika level ini tidak dapat dipertahankan, penurunan lebih dalam mungkin terjadi.

QBagaimana analisis teknis untuk XRP dan level kunci yang perlu diperhatikan?

AXRP jatuh di bawah $1.95, dengan support utama di $1.855. Jika tidak dapat pulih di atas $1.90, penurunan lebih lanjut ke $1.82 atau $1.765 mungkin terjadi. Indikator teknis seperti MACD dan RSI menunjukkan momentum bearish.

QApa peluang trading yang diidentifikasi untuk RATS dan rekomendasi strateginya?

ARATS menunjukkan momentum bullish dengan tiga hari hijau-turut naik dan pola double bottom. Disarankan untuk membeli pada level sekitar $0.000035 dan mengambil keuntungan di dekat $0.00005.

QMengapa artikel merekomendasikan untuk short (jual) MERL dan pada level berapa?

AMERL diduga mengalami pump artifisial sebesar 17% oleh whale untuk menjebak pembeli. Disarankan untuk short di level $0.46-$0.48 dengan target $0.40 atau bahkan $0.35.

QApa saran untuk ASTER dan FOLKS berdasarkan kondisi pasar saat ini?

AUntuk ASTER, disarankan menunggu dan melihat formasi teknisnya sebelum masuk. Untuk FOLKS, direkomendasikan short dengan leverage rendah untuk jangka panjang, mengingat tren penurunan yang konsisten setelah pump awal.

Letture associate

Circle Q2 revenue falls short of Wall Street estimates

Circle reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue and reserve income of $701 million, a 7% year-over-year increase, but slightly missed Wall Street estimates averaging $713.32 million. Net income from continuing operations was $48 million. The company noted a 5% rise in reserve income, driven by a 25% increase in average USDC circulation. Despite the earnings miss, shares rose 5.7% in pre-market trading. Circle announced the founding validators for its upcoming Arc blockchain, set to launch on September 16, including major firms like BlackRock, Visa, and Mastercard. Management raised its full-year guidance for other revenue, which includes Arc token presale revenue, to $310-$330 million from $150-$170 million. The results come amid a broader stablecoin market contraction, with total supply falling to $153 billion. Circle's USDC, with a $72 billion circulating supply, remains the second-largest stablecoin. According to a Talos spokesperson, USDC facilitated 72% of the $15.6 trillion in adjusted on-chain transfer volume in the quarter.

cointelegraph16 min fa

Circle Q2 revenue falls short of Wall Street estimates

cointelegraph16 min fa

Playing the "Decoupling" Card Again? Domestic Optical Modules Face a Stress Test

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is reportedly drafting a ban on importing new models of Chinese-made optical transceiver modules, with a potential implementation target of 2026. This "decoupling" move comes as Chinese firms, led by industry leaders like Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink, dominate the global optical module market with over 60% share, and hold an even larger position in the high-speed 800G and 1.6T segments critical for AI data centers. Market reactions were mixed: U.S. optical module stocks initially rose, while Chinese A-shares opened lower but largely recovered by the close. Analysis suggests a complete U.S. decoupling from Chinese modules faces significant hurdles. North American cloud giants (Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon) and NVIDIA have massive demand for high-speed modules, estimated at around 40 million units in 2026. U.S. manufacturers' combined monthly production capacity for these modules is less than one-fifth that of a single major Chinese player like Zhongji Innolight, which reported production of 23.76 million units in 2025. Chinese companies are heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with over 90% of revenue for top firms coming from overseas, primarily the U.S. However, they have begun mitigating risks by establishing assembly plants in Southeast Asia and Mexico. Industry observers note the final impact depends on whether any potential U.S. restrictions target specific companies or products based on origin. Past U.S. sanctions on Chinese tech firms have often spurred increased domestic R&D and market diversification. Despite initial stock volatility, shares of major Chinese optical module companies pared losses, indicating market belief in the sector's resilience and the practical difficulties of abruptly replacing Chinese supply.

marsbit24 min fa

Playing the "Decoupling" Card Again? Domestic Optical Modules Face a Stress Test

marsbit24 min fa

When the Competition in Chip Manufacturing Equipment Stops Being Just About Who Is More Advanced

The competition in chip manufacturing equipment is no longer solely about who has the most advanced technology. While performance, yield, and cost remain key, U.S. export controls are adding a critical new dimension: long-term supply chain reliability. Major chipmakers like Samsung and SK Hynix, despite having mature supply chains with leading American and European vendors, are reportedly evaluating etching equipment from China's AMEC for their Chinese factories. This move is not primarily about immediate replacement or AMEC's current capabilities. Instead, it's a risk mitigation strategy. Companies are concerned that future U.S. policies could disrupt their access to spare parts, software updates, and maintenance for existing equipment over its decade-long lifespan. For chipmakers investing billions in fabs with long planning cycles, this policy-induced uncertainty is a significant new risk. The U.S., through its controls, is inadvertently eroding the very reliability and certainty that were foundational strengths of its equipment suppliers. This creates a pivotal shift for Chinese semiconductor equipment. Previously seen largely as a "domestic replacement" option when foreign gear was unavailable, they are now being assessed as potential "contingency suppliers" by global players—even before a supply disruption occurs. This provides a crucial entry point for validation in real production lines, which is essential for iterative improvement. Chinese equipment, particularly in areas like etching, has progressed from prototypes to participating in mass production within China, gaining valuable experience. However, this does not signify full global competitiveness. Gaps remain in advanced lithography, metrology, and other key tools. The current evaluations are largely confined to foreign firms' China-based fabs, not their global procurement networks. The core change is in the decision-making framework. Efficiency-driven globalization favored single, optimal suppliers. An era of heightened geopolitical risk is forcing companies to value "replaceability." While technical prowess remains paramount, supply chain certainty is now being factored into a device's competitive equation. Ultimately, U.S. policies have not made Chinese equipment more advanced, but they have given global customers a compelling reason to start testing it. The competition has expanded: it's no longer just about who is more advanced, but also about who can be relied upon to stay.

marsbit25 min fa

When the Competition in Chip Manufacturing Equipment Stops Being Just About Who Is More Advanced

marsbit25 min fa

Trading Volume Increased by 2.5x, Why Did Circle's Revenue Only Grow by 7%?

Circle's Q2 performance presents a seemingly contradictory picture: the transaction volume of its stablecoin USDC surged 151% year-over-year to $14.8 trillion, while its "Total Revenue & Reserve Revenue" grew by only 7% to $701 million. This discrepancy highlights the core of Circle's business model. Revenue is primarily driven not by transaction volume, but by the average amount of USDC in circulation and the yield generated from its reserves. Key points: 1. **Revenue Drivers:** Over 90% of revenue comes from "reserve income," which is a function of average USDC circulation (up 25% YoY) and the reserve yield (which fell by 66 basis points). The net effect was a mere ~5% increase in reserve income. 2. **Transaction vs. Revenue:** High transaction volume indicates robust usage of USDC for payments and settlements, but does not translate directly to revenue. It must first convert into a sustained, average circulating balance. 3. **Cost Structure:** After accounting for distribution and other costs, the metric "Revenue Less Direct Costs" (RLDC) grew faster than total revenue, with its margin improving. However, rising operating expenses (up 23% YoY) meant that Adjusted EBITDA growth was limited to 8%. 4. **New Initiatives:** Circle reported progress on new networks like the Circle Payments Network and upcoming products (Arc, Agent Stack), but these are currently measured by adoption metrics (e.g., transaction run-rate, number of services) rather than material revenue contribution this quarter. In summary, the financial results are determined by the interplay of USDC circulation, reserve yields, and cost structures, while high transaction volume signals underlying network strength that has not yet fully flowed through to the income statement.

marsbit42 min fa

Trading Volume Increased by 2.5x, Why Did Circle's Revenue Only Grow by 7%?

marsbit42 min fa

Samsung China, Another Step Back

Samsung China Takes Another Step Back Samsung Electronics is further retreating from the Chinese consumer market. Following the exit of its home appliance business in May, its mobile phone division is now reportedly scaling down. Stores with monthly sales below 300,000 RMB are being closed in several cities. Data shows Samsung's smartphone market share in China has plummeted to 0.1% in Q2 2026, a stark contrast to its 22% global leadership. The decline is attributed to intense competition from domestic brands offering better value, higher specs (like faster charging), and superior localization in software and services. Samsung's premium pricing and less adapted One UI system have struggled against rivals like Huawei, Xiaomi, and Honor. This consumer electronics retreat coincides with Samsung's record-breaking semiconductor profits, driven by the AI boom. In Q2 2026, the chip division contributed nearly all operating profit, while the mobile and home appliance unit posted its first-ever operating loss. Internal dynamics, like the chip division charging market prices to the mobile unit, have increased cost pressures. Samsung's strategy now appears to be a focused retreat towards the ultra-premium segment in China, similar to its global push in high-end foldables like the Galaxy Z Fold8. The company is likely to retain only key stores in major cities to serve a niche, high-end clientele. While its deep semiconductor reserves offer a cushion, this shift away from mass-market consumer electronics reduces business diversification. The move is pragmatic but signifies a fundamental transformation; Samsung is ceding mass-market influence and betting heavily on its semiconductor strength and a narrowed premium product focus.

marsbit46 min fa

marsbit46 min fa

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319 Totale visualizzazioniPubblicato il 2024.12.12Aggiornato il 2026.06.02

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