Strategy的14亿美金“续命水”，够吗？

比推Pubblicato 2025-12-01Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-01

作者：JED GRAHAM

原标题：Strategy Raises $1.4 Billion For 'Bitcoin Winter.' Is It Enough?

编译及整理：BitpushNews

MicroStrategy（MSTR）正在为可能的“比特币寒冬”做准备，宣布上周通过发行820万股股票筹集了14亿美元，这笔资金将足以覆盖其未来21个月的所有利息支出。

尽管比特币价格的坏消息目前占据上风，导致加密货币下跌，但相对的好消息是，Strategy表示未来至少21个月内将无需出售任何比特币。即使资本市场对MSTR股票、债务和优先股失去兴趣，这一承诺依然有效。

目前，MicroStrategy的利息和优先股股息支出约为每年8亿美元。然而，这笔储备基金可能无法避免从2027年9月开始的大规模现金危机。

届时，如果股价持续低迷，公司将必须赎回10亿美元的可转换债券。此外，公司另有56亿美元可转换债券目前处于价外状态，可能需要在2028年以现金赎回。

昂贵的保险政策

MicroStrategy本可以使用14.4亿美元赎回部分优先股，这样每年可节省超过1.5亿美元的利息支出。但该公司在周一宣布，其STRC优先股的利率将从最初的9%上调至10.75%。

相比之下，将现金留存并投资于无风险政府债券，MicroStrategy可能获得4%至5%的利息收益。选择不偿还债务意味着公司及其普通股股东每年需支付约9000万美元的“保险费”，以换取在资本市场冻结时的备用计划。

战略抉择与估值考量

MicroStrategy更倾向于在公司企业价值（包括市值、债务和优先股）高于其比特币持仓价值时出售股票。目前情况依然如此——用公司术语来说，其市场净资产价值（mNAV）仍高于1。

“当我们考虑比特币寒冬时，看到mNAV被压缩，我希望我们的mNAV不会跌破1，”MicroStrategy首席执行官Phong Le在上周的"What Bitcoin Did"播客中表示。“但如果真的跌破，而我们又没有其他融资渠道，我们将不得不出售比特币。”

然而，公司决定不让MSTR股价在短期内决定其命运。当股息支付到期时，MicroStrategy可以选择动用储备基金。

储备基金无法解决的问题

MicroStrategy的美元储备基金可以提供短期内无需出售比特币的保障，但这种缓解可能不会持续太久，除非比特币价格和MSTR股价能够收复部分失地。

因为如果公司真的需要动用该基金，其规模将会缩小。届时，如果公司估值跌破比特币持仓价值，进一步发行股票将变得更加困难。

真正的危机时刻：2027年可转换债券到期

真正的危机可能最早在2027年9月到来，届时公司的可转换债券将到期。

标普全球在10月27日给予MicroStrategy B-信用评级（展望稳定）时，特别强调了其可转换债券带来的“流动性风险”。

“我们认为存在一种风险，即当比特币遭遇严重压力时，可转换债券可能同时到期，这可能导致公司不得不以低迷价格清算比特币，或对其可转换债券或优先股进行重组——我们可能将此视同违约，”标普全球写道。

当时标普指出，有50亿美元可转换债券处于“价外”状态（即低于转换价格）。自那以后，另有18亿美元可转换债券跌破了转换价格，其中包括转换价为183.19美元的10.1亿美元债券。债券持有人可在2027年9月15日要求公司偿还本金——如果股权不能为继续提供低成本融资提供足够激励，他们很可能会这样做。

可转换债券详情表

以下是MicroStrategy可转换债券的关键数据：

| 发行日期 | 本金 | 利率 | 转换价格 | 持有人赎回权日期 |

| 2024年9月 | 10.1亿美元 | 0.625% | 183.19 | 2027年9月15日 |

| 2024年11月 | 30亿美元 | 0.0% | 672.4 | 2028年6月1日 |

| 2024年3月 | 8亿美元 | 0.625% | 149.77 | 2028年9月15日 |

| 2025年2月 | 20亿美元 | 0% | 433.43 | 2028年3月1日 |

| 2024年3月 | 6.0375亿美元 | 0.875% | 232.72 | 2028年9月15日 |

| 2024年6月 | 8亿美元 | 2.25% | 204.33 | 2029年6月15日 |

（数据来源：MicroStrategy 10-Q报告）

小结

MSTR股价在12月1日收盘下跌6%，较7月中旬的52周高点已累计下跌64%。盘中一度跌至156美元，随后收窄跌幅至167美元上方。

比特币价格下跌7.1%至84,996美元，未能从略低于84,000美元的低点实现有效反弹。

因此，Strategy的故事正演变为一场与时间的赛跑。公司用14亿美元换来21个月的缓冲期，但真正的考验是2027年那批必须兑现的巨额可转债。当市场用股价暴跌来表达担忧时，这家比特币最大上市公司面临的已不仅是短期流动性问题，而是如何在下一个牛市周期到来前，守住这份沉重的信仰与债务。

毕竟在加密世界，时间从来不是线性的——而Strategy需要的，恰好是足够的时间。

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原文链接:https://www.investors.com/news/mstr-stock-strategy-bitcoin-winter-reserve-fund/

说明: 比推所有文章只代表作者观点，不构成投资建议

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