Аналитики назвали препятствия на пути к новому ATH биткоина

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2025-11-28Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-11-28

Для роста к новым высотам цене первой криптовалюты необходимо преодолеть «кластеры предложения крупных покупателей» в диапазонах $93 000-96 000 и $100 000-108 000, отметили представители Glassnode.

Breaking above the top-buyers’ supply clusters is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward a new ATH.
The major immediate clusters sit at $93k–$96K & $100k–$108K, where typically some degree of resistance from recent buyers is expected.

📊 https://t.co/dFiE9YGNP3 https://t.co/lHVm7IpC2W pic.twitter.com/vScwKBbj0D

— glassnode (@glassnode) November 28, 2025

Котировкам цифрового золота уже удалось пройти препятствие в виде $89 000-90 000. Это ознаменовало выход из «зоны высокого риска», согласно Bitcoin Vector.

Сигнал об уходе от риска и ценовой импульс цифрового золота. Источник: X-аккаунт Bitcoin Vector.

«Биткоину необходимо набрать импульс для выхода из консолидации, которая формируется с момента достижения исторического максимума», — пояснили аналитики.

На момент написания первая криптовалюта торгуется в районе $91 356. За последние семь дней актив подорожал на ~6%, по данным CoinGecko.

Согласно Bitcoin Vector, для укрепления восходящего тренда необходим «полноценный пробой» зоны консолидации в диапазоне $93 500-95 000.

«В ходе этого процесса индикатор ухода от риска должен опуститься в “безопасную зону”. Это подтвердит доминирование покупателей над продавцами и начало формирования импульса», — отметили исследователи.

По их мнению, при отсутствии импульса и сохранении высоких рисков любой рост будет носить лишь тактический характер, не являясь структурным восстановлением.

Давление ослабевает

Согласно Bitcoin Vector, рынок все еще в «зоне повышенного риска», однако ситуация стабилизируется: давление продаж ослабевает, а спотовый спрос «наконец начинает менять расклад сил».

Bitcoin is still in a high-risk regime, but the signal is slowly stabilizing

Selling pressure is weakening, and spot demand (which never disappeared) is finally making the difference

The key question: has the worst passed?

We’ll know when BTC retests $94K–$95K, the decisive… pic.twitter.com/nFq5ijjyWo

— Bitcoin Vector (@bitcoinvector) November 27, 2025

«Главный вопрос: осталось ли худшее позади? Ситуация прояснится при ретесте диапазона $94 000-95 000 — это решающий рубеж для подтверждения смены тренда», — подчеркнули исследователи.

Настроения улучшаются

Популярный индикатор рыночных настроений все еще указывает на «экстремальный страх», однако его значения постепенно растут.

Индекс страха и жадности. Источник: Alternative.

Аналитики Santiment отметили, что недавний рост медвежьих настроений в соцсетях исторически предвещает позитивный импульс на рынке.

«Большинство значимых разворотов происходит, когда розничные инвесторы практически теряют надежду. Обычно рынки движутся против ожиданий толпы», — подчеркнули эксперты.

Улучшение настроений нашло отражение и в сегменте биткоин-ETF, где уже второй день подряд наблюдаются умеренные притоки капитала. Фонды на базе Ethereum фиксируют чистые поступления на протяжении четырех торговых сессий.

Напомним, аналитики Glassnode выявили уровень-подтверждение медвежьей фазы рынка.

Эксперт назвал три сигнала для определения дна цены биткоина

Crypto di tendenza

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A Guide to Grayscale’s ‘Bottom Fishing’: Using Cash Flow to Assess Cryptocurrency Value

**Title:** Grayscale's Guide to Bottom-Fishing: Valuing Cryptoassets Using Cash Flows **Summary:** This report by Grayscale Research presents a fundamental valuation framework for cryptocurrency assets, moving beyond pure speculation to analyze those with underlying cash flows. It distinguishes between "commodity-like" assets (e.g., Bitcoin) and "cash-flow" assets, primarily within DeFi. Using the leading decentralized lending protocol Aave as a case study, the analysis applies traditional financial methodologies like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiples. Key findings indicate that AAVE tokens are currently undervalued. Despite recent challenges, the protocol's strong revenue growth, ~50% net profit margin, and diversified treasury support a fundamental valuation range of $80-$100 per token (compared to a ~$75 market price at the time of writing). In a base-case scenario driven by stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity, the fair value could rise to around $175 within a year. The report emphasizes that protocol success does not automatically translate to token value. It critically examines the "value capture" mechanisms—such as buybacks, burns, and staking rewards—that channel protocol profits to token holders. Furthermore, it addresses the legal and governance complexities of Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), noting their difference from traditional corporate equity but highlighting how robust, transparent governance can align protocol economics with holder interests. The conclusion is that the crypto market is maturing, with capital increasingly flowing towards projects with demonstrable fundamentals, real adoption, and disciplined capital allocation, creating opportunities for value-based investors.

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After semiconductors lead the gains, are funds buying into AI orders or a macroeconomic rebound?

After US-Iran talks led to a temporary ceasefire and framework for reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz, U.S. stocks rose on June 18, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.9%. The semiconductor and AI hardware sectors outperformed. This rally stemmed primarily from reduced geopolitical risk, which lowered oil prices and inflation expectations, easing discount rate pressure on high-valuation growth stocks like tech. The key question is not whether tech rebounded, but the nature of the rebound. The market appears to be selectively repricing AI infrastructure plays rather than broadly chasing AI narratives. Gains were concentrated in chips, optical interconnects, memory, and domestic manufacturing—segments tied to tangible data center build-outs and capital expenditure. Intel's ~10% surge, fueled by a Trump statement about potential Apple collaboration, exemplifies this mixed dynamic. It reflects policy catalysts and domestic manufacturing sentiment more than confirmed fundamentals. Meanwhile, strong earnings from companies like Astera Labs (revenue up 93% YoY) provided concrete evidence of AI-driven demand in hardware. In essence, the rally represents a risk-premium recalibration. Lower Middle East tensions opened a valuation repair window, and capital flowed first into AI infrastructure segments with visible near-term revenue streams. The sustainability of this move hinges on upcoming Q2 earnings, specifically continued strength in cloud provider capex, AI server orders, and hardware company guidance. Policy hopes alone are insufficient; the cycle needs validation from orders and financials.

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The Entire Internet Hails Noam's Joining, But OpenAI's Loss Bill Just Got Thicker

While the AI community celebrates Noam Shazeer, co-author of the "Attention Is All You Need" paper, joining OpenAI as Head of Architectural Research, the company's audited financials reveal a starkly different reality. In 2025, OpenAI reported $13.07 billion in revenue but a massive $20.92 billion operating loss. Even excluding a one-time accounting charge, the cash burn is severe, with $3.7 billion consumed in Q1 2026 alone. This high-profile hiring occurs against a backdrop of significant internal research talent drain, with key founders and researchers departing as the company's focus shifts from exploratory research to product iteration. Meanwhile, OpenAI's fundamental business model faces a deep crisis. It paid Microsoft $10.59 billion for compute in 2025, while its vast user base of 9 billion weekly actives includes only 50 million paying customers, making growth a direct driver of escalating costs. The article argues Shazeer's recruitment is less about technical necessity and more about crafting a compelling narrative for OpenAI's upcoming IPO, aiming to justify a rumored $1 trillion valuation to future public market investors. It contrasts OpenAI's strategy with Anthropic's reported path to profitability, which relies on a strong enterprise customer base and cost control, rather than star-powered narratives. Ultimately, the piece concludes that while Shazeer's architectural work may take 1-2 years to materialize, OpenAI's financial clock is ticking much faster, with its massive losses undercutting the celebratory headlines.

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