Эксперт объяснил, как именно институционалы перекраивают крипторынок

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2025-11-19Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-11-26

Крипторынок переживает переломный момент: запуск ETF и приход институционалов заметно изменили ритм рынка, а политическая повестка, геополитика и стремительное развитие ИИ усилили эту трансформацию. Старые закономерности ослабевают, на их место приходят новые механики, которые формируют обновленную структуру циклов и волатильности.

О том, как именно меняется рынок и что стоит за этими сдвигами, мы поговорили с финансистом и управляющим активами Александром Рябининым.

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BIC: Есть мнение, что из-за Трампа крипторынок стал полностью институциональным. Согласны ли вы с такими утверждениями?

Рынок не стал институциональным из-за Трампа. ETF были запущены еще при Байдене, так что институционалы пришли бы при любом президенте.

BIC: Многие участники рынка считают, что из-за институализации крипторынок стал крайне непредсказуемым. Какие инструменты прогнозирования могли перестать работать в таких условиях?

Институционалы — лишь один из факторов, влияющих на непредсказуемость. Они приносят на рынок собственные стратегии, а вместе с ними приходят их клиенты со своими целями. Если раньше криптовалюта была преимущественно в руках частных участников, то теперь она уходит в сторону крупного капитала. На ситуацию также влияют Трамп, геополитическая напряженность, снижение и перераспределение ликвидности между активами, развитие ИИ и его использование в торговых системах.

BIC: Еще есть мнение, что благодаря приходу институционалов криптозимы станут менее заметными. Так ли это?

Да, криптозимы должны стать менее выраженными. Волатильность актива меняется: если раньше рынком управляли эмоции и рыночные настроения, то теперь большую роль будет играть фундамент и долгосрочные тенденции. Возможно, мы увидим еще одну криптозиму, пока институционалы не поглотят значительную долю предложения биткоина. До этого момента sentiment по-прежнему будет влиять на рынок.

BIC: Как вы считаете, могут ли институционалы запустить распродажу крипты в конце года, чтобы «подбить» отчетность?

Не думаю, что институционалы будут подбивать отчетность таким образом. Однако их клиенты могут продавать криптовалюту, чтобы снизить налоговую нагрузку: зафиксировать убытки в биткоине и купить его уже в следующем году или вовсе отказаться от этого актива.

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