UNI的投资价值

金色财经Pubblicato 2025-11-13Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-11-13

昨天的文章发表后,有细心的读者发现了文章中一个问题:UNI的流通总量不是62.9亿,是6.29亿。

在这里我用了流通总量而不是最大发行量(10亿)主要是为了让计算更贴近当下的状况。

另外,这位读者从另外一个角度提供了一组UNI手续费的收入:

其30天的交易量为1485亿美元,如果大概按0.05%的手续费算,30天的手续费就是7425万美元,一年就是8.9亿美元。如果再保守一点估计一年的收入下限为5亿美元。那么UNI一年的手续费收入大概就是5亿美元 ~ 8.9亿美元。

换算到每个代币的手续费收入就是0.79美元 ~ 1.41美元,用于回购代币的费用就是0.13美元 ~ 0.235美元

用上面这个数据加上更正的6.29亿枚流通量重新计算,得到的PE和“股息率”分别如下:

以UNI大涨前的价格5美元为标准计算,它的PE是3.55 ~ 6.32,它的股息率是2.64% ~ 4.72%。

以大涨后的价格9.22美元为标准计算,它的PE是6.54 ~ 11.67,它的股息率是1.44% ~ 2.56%。

这里有一个不确定性的要素,就是它的成本到底是多少。

因为Uniswap不像传统的上市公司那样需要公开财务数据,所以我们没办法看到它的各种成本,因此没有办法计算它的净利润和自由现金流,只能把它的交易费收入统统算作是它的净利润。

如果把成本考虑进去的话,它的实际PE会比上面计算所得要高,实际的“股息率”要比上面计算所得要低。

不过即便如此,用这个数据审视一下UNI,从它的PE来看,不管是价格大涨前还是大涨后,它的溢价风险都不算高。就算用大涨后的标准看,它的溢价风险都是较低的。

溢价风险不高,那接下来要看的就是它的营收了。

在营收方面,除了上面提到的成本无法明确判断之外,另外一个我认为影响更为深远的是它的商业模式是不是有非常强的护城河?

关于这一点我在前面的文章中曾经分享过一些担忧:那就是至少在某些生态中,比如BASE,Uniswap的龙头效应不是太明显,再加上Uniswap现在有了自己的二层扩展,它一定是希望把TVL、流量尽量往自己的二层里面引。

3DSpLmSZjBdwzaGXWhw095o4mDP0ewaDQaPkc3MZ.png

这样做会不会无形中把其它生态的交易市场让给竞争对手?

最后,当我考虑UNI是不是值得投资的时候,我会直接把它和以太坊进行对比,主要比两方面:一是风险,二是“股息率”。

所谓的风险是指我会评估UNI这个项目续存和继续发展的风险和以太坊相比哪个大?

显然我认为以太坊的风险会比UNI小。

所谓的“股息率”就是代币持有者直接能够享受到的项目收益。根据上面的计算出来的UNI的股息率(在不考虑成本的情况下)我按高估的算大概是2.6% ~ 4.7%。现在以太坊质押的收入大概在2.6% ~ 3.2%。

UNI会稍高一点。

如果综合风险和收益,在现阶段我会倾向选择以太坊。但是现在我连以太坊都不买,所以就更不会买UNI了。

有读者提到希望定投,我自己不会定投UNI,不过可以给一个我曾经使用过的大概方法:

以前我会参考过往UNI曾经达到过的最高值,然后按最高值算上我自己能够承受的风险算出一个折扣价把它算作定投价。

但是这样做有个前提假设:那就是假设UNI未来一定会超过前高。

这个方法仅供读者参考。并且读者在使用这个方法时一定要注意这个前提假设。

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Benvenuto in HTX.com! Abbiamo reso l'acquisto di Uniswap (UNI) semplice e conveniente. Segui la nostra guida passo passo per intraprendere il tuo viaggio nel mondo delle criptovalute.Step 1: Crea il tuo Account HTXUsa la tua email o numero di telefono per registrarti il tuo account gratuito su HTX. Vivi un'esperienza facile e sblocca tutte le funzionalità,Crea il mio accountStep 2: Vai in Acquista crypto e seleziona il tuo metodo di pagamentoCarta di credito/debito: utilizza la tua Visa o Mastercard per acquistare immediatamente UniswapUNI.Bilancio: Usa i fondi dal bilancio del tuo account HTX per fare trading senza problemi.Terze parti: abbiamo aggiunto metodi di pagamento molto utilizzati come Google Pay e Apple Pay per maggiore comodità.P2P: Fai trading direttamente con altri utenti HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): Offriamo servizi su misura e tassi di cambio competitivi per i trader.Step 3: Conserva Uniswap (UNI)Dopo aver acquistato Uniswap (UNI), conserva nel tuo account HTX. In alternativa, puoi inviare tramite trasferimento blockchain o scambiare per altre criptovalute.Step 4: Scambia Uniswap (UNI)Scambia facilmente Uniswap (UNI) nel mercato spot di HTX. Accedi al tuo account, seleziona la tua coppia di trading, esegui le tue operazioni e monitora in tempo reale. Offriamo un'esperienza user-friendly sia per chi ha appena iniziato che per i trader più esperti.

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