New Bitcoin Record Paints Incredibly Bearish Picture As BTC Struggles At $19,000

newsbtcPubblicato 2022-07-02Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-07-02

Introduzione

Bitcoin has been setting new record trends with the bear market. This follows a bull market that had also deviated largely from its predecessors, so it comes as no surprise...

Bitcoin has been setting new record trends with the bear market. This follows a bull market that had also deviated largely from its predecessors, so it comes as no surprise that the subsequent near market mirrored this behavior. Various new trends in bitcoin’s movement have cemented a bearish picture for the digital asset, and the latest in the line of records has only done more to cement this sentiment.

Worse Quarterly Close In More Than A Decade

Bitcoin has been in existence for about 13 years and in that time, the barely teenage-aged market has recorded its fair share of bad quarterly closes. However, in the last 11 years, none have been as brutal as the close that was recorded on June 30th. After a month of incredibly volatile prices, the month had closed out the quarter with three consecutive red monthly closes.

This comes hot on the heels of the market crash that had rocked the market this year. Bitcoin which leads the market had fallen about 60% from its price at the beginning of the quarter and had brought down the entire market with it. This had seen the crypto total market crash drop below $1 trillion for the first time in a 16-month period.

The digital asset had closed the month at $19,918 after entering the month with an average price of $30,000. This had dashed the hopes of investors and the decline has left in its wake a number of events that continue to threaten the prices in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin price chart from TradingView.com

BTC struggles to hold $19,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin Investors Are Not Impressed

Even though predictions had been incredibly bullish for the year 2022, it has since gone sideways. This has triggered investors to move their funds out of the market for fear of incurring more losses. Also, following previous historical trends, it remains highly possible that the digital asset may crash more before there is any significant recovery.

Looking at the indicators, it shows that bitcoin has struggled to hold the important technical levels required for a recovery in the short term. It has been trading below its 200-week moving average for the first time in history, and this has deepened negative sentiment in the market.

Although the digital asset has been moving away from established historical trends, there is still a high chance that it follows some of the previous market movements. One of these is when the bottom is usually in. Sticking to this would mean that the price of bitcoin will likely touch as low as $12,000 before the next bull trend resumes.

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David Schwartz Backs XRP Ledger 3.2.0 Upgrade With Major XRPL Hub Move

David Schwartz, co-creator of XRP Ledger and Ripple's CTO, has moved a major XRPL hub to version 3.2.0, a transition completed in under ten minutes. This upgrade follows the ledger's core software being renamed "xrpld" to distinguish it from Ripple. Key improvements include up to 40% better memory optimization and the fixCleanup3_2_0 amendment, enhancing security for features like vaults and decentralized exchanges. The update also introduces new tools for developers and invariant checks for ledger integrity. Concurrently, network governance updates include changes to the Unique Node List. The move underscores the commitment to maintaining the latest software across the XRPL ecosystem.

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David Schwartz Backs XRP Ledger 3.2.0 Upgrade With Major XRPL Hub Move

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Why Is the World Nervous About Japan Raising Interest Rates?

In June 2026, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1%, marking its first hike to this level since 1995. While this rate remains low compared to global peers like the US and Europe, the move signals a profound shift for a nation that has been a global source of ultra-cheap funding for decades. Japan's long-standing near-zero or negative interest rates had facilitated massive "yen carry trades," where international investors borrowed low-cost yen to invest in higher-yielding assets worldwide, such as US tech stocks and emerging market bonds. This made Japan a critical, often overlooked, source of global liquidity. Japan's ultra-loose policy stemmed from structural challenges post-1990s asset bubble: aging demographics, chronic low inflation/deflation, and high public debt. Recent shifts, including sustained wage growth (exceeding 5% in recent years) and inflation consistently above the 2% target, have created a "wage-price spiral" possibility, prompting the policy normalization. The global market's concern lies not in the absolute rate but in the potential unwinding of the yen carry trade. As Japanese borrowing costs rise, the economics of these leveraged global investments change, potentially triggering deleveraging and capital outflows from risk assets. Market anxiety focuses on the end of a thirty-year consensus that Japan would perpetually provide cheap funding. Ultimately, the global impact will depend on the interplay with US monetary policy. While Japan is tightening, the significant interest rate differential with the US remains. The key future dynamic is whether simultaneous Japanese hikes and eventual US rate cuts will narrow this gap, forcing a major recalibration of global capital flows and asset pricing built on an era of abundant, cheap yen liquidity.

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Why Is the World Nervous About Japan Raising Interest Rates?

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Congress Advances CBDC Ban Until 2030 Through Major Housing Reform Bill

Congress has passed the 21st Century Road to Housing Act, a bipartisan bill primarily focused on housing reform to improve affordability and supply. Included within it is a significant provision that bans the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) or "digital dollar" before December 31, 2030. The measure defines a CBDC as a dollar-denominated digital asset, a direct liability of the Fed, accessible to all Americans. Proponents argue the ban allows more time to study a digital dollar's impacts and addresses concerns about privacy, financial surveillance, and government overreach in digital payments. The provision specifically targets a retail CBDC but does not restrict permissionless blockchain networks. This crypto-related language, embedded in broader housing legislation, has drawn considerable attention for its potential to shape the future of digital assets and payments in the U.S. The bill's final passage will determine if the ban takes effect for the next decade.

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Congress Advances CBDC Ban Until 2030 Through Major Housing Reform Bill

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Research Report Analysis: MRVL's Optical AI Booming, Why High Valuation Keeps Morgan Stanley's Star Analyst Sidelined?

Report Recap: MRVL Optical AI Boom - Why High Valuation Led Morgan Stanley's Star Analyst to Stay Neutral? Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore maintained an "Equal-weight" (Neutral) rating on Marvell Technology (MRVL) on May 28, raising the price target from $172 to $195, below the trading price. This stance comes despite Marvell reporting a record quarter and significantly raising its full-year outlook (FY27 revenue ~$11.5B, up ~40%). Moore's neutral view is based on valuation. The $195 target implies ~40x CY2027 P/E. He contrasts MRVL with NVDA: both trade near ~$200, but Nvidia's forward EPS is more than double Marvell's. For MRVL's valuation to hold, it needs consistent earnings upgrades, proof of networking market share gains, or certainty on large-scale custom AI chip shipments—none of which are confirmed yet. Growth is driven by two pillars: **1) Optical Interconnect** (the faster runner): Moore raised FY27 growth expectations to >70%, with the optical module product line nearing a $1B annualized run rate. **2) Custom AI Chips** (the climber): Confidence in FY28 is growing, but a major new customer project only ramps in FY28, with no current revenue visibility. Key risks are the underperforming Storage, Enterprise, and legacy Networking segments. Moore acknowledges the real AI opportunity but believes the current price already reflects it. For the stock to work from here, investors need to see the optical business hit its targets, custom chips ramp as planned, and a recovery in the weaker business units.

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Research Report Analysis: MRVL's Optical AI Booming, Why High Valuation Keeps Morgan Stanley's Star Analyst Sidelined?

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qinbaFrank: Review and Outlook of the AI Computing Power Wave — From the Three Debates on NVIDIA to Optical Interconnect and SpaceX IPO, How is Capital Rotating?

**Summary: Retrospective and Outlook on the AI Computing Wave - A Framework for Capital Rotation** Based on a presentation by investor qinbaFrank, this analysis reviews the AI computing market trajectory since 2023 and outlines a forward-looking framework. **Key Phases and Market Debates:** The AI bull market progressed through three major debates: 1) The necessity of massive capital expenditure (late 2023). 2) The sustainability of tech giants' spending (early 2024-early 2025). 3) Potential overestimation of compute needs (early 2025). Consensus solidified in late 2025 as model capabilities and utility demonstrably improved. **Core Thesis: Penetration Rate Drives Commercialization.** Unlike the 2000 dot-com bubble, the current AI wave benefits from mature digital infrastructure, enabling faster adoption. The critical threshold is 10% penetration; surpassing it (with recent enterprise intent surveys showing ~18%) indicates entry into a rapid growth "golden period" where user scale and willingness to pay increase simultaneously. **AI vs. Internet: A Fundamental Difference.** While the internet enhanced connection efficiency, AI directly substitutes human cognition and labor. Once AI performance exceeds the "societal average" human level, its commercial value scales exponentially as payment shifts from human labor costs to AI service fees. **Investment Logic Evolution in the Compute Chain.** The focus has expanded from GPUs to a systemic re-rating of the entire hardware stack: storage/HBM, CPUs, interconnects, power, and advanced packaging. The framework is: **short-term "scarcity pricing," mid-term "upgrade pricing" (e.g., optical interconnects, power networks), and long-term "Physical AI" pricing** (edge computing, robotics). **Market Focus Shift and Adjustment Framework.** The market is transitioning from "hardware scarcity" to "commercialization validation." The ultimate anchor for the narrative is sustained high growth in model providers' Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and cloud business revenue, which justifies continued capital expenditure. Adjustments are categorized into three levels: * **L1 (Minor):** Driven by valuation compression or macro noise (e.g., single CPI print). Fundamentals intact. * **L2 (Moderate):** Triggered by significant macro events requiring risk repricing. Requires new data for confidence restoration. * **L3 (Major):** Involves a reset of the core industrial narrative or macro regime (e.g., AI commercialization growth stalling). The **crucial dividing line** is whether AI commercialization growth slows. Without a slowdown, pullbacks are likely L1/L2 "repricing" events. A genuine growth deceleration would signal an L2/L3 narrative reset. **Conclusion: A Foundational Civilizational Leap.** AI represents a foundational upgrade to "intelligence" itself—akin to humanity mastering fire—rather than a single-point industrial revolution. This底层能力跃迁 (underlying capability leap) will spawn successive waves of innovation (Agent, robotics, industry workflow重构). The journey will be波浪式的 (wavelike), driven by cycles of scarcity, technological upgrades, and远期兑现 (long-term realization).

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qinbaFrank: Review and Outlook of the AI Computing Power Wave — From the Three Debates on NVIDIA to Optical Interconnect and SpaceX IPO, How is Capital Rotating?

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