Hayes家办发出预警:每月5亿美元解锁,Hyperliquid的“HYPE”泡沫即将破裂?

marsbitPubblicato 2025-09-21Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-09-22

Hyperliquid 正经历着史诗级的高光时刻——其生态系统蓬勃发展,交易量创下历史新高,而USDH的竞标战更是加密货币史上最引人注目的“选美大赛”之一。但王冠之下,也悬着一把达摩克利斯之剑:HYPE即将面临其第一次真正的考验。

从11月29日开始,2.378亿枚HYPE代币将在24个月内开始线性释放。按每枚代币50美元计算,这意味着团队解锁的代币总价值高达119亿美元——名义上,每个月将有近5亿美元的代币进入市场。

问题在于,以目前的水平进行回购,大约只能吸收其中17%的抛压。这就留下了每月4.1亿美元的供应过剩。市场是否已经消化了如此巨大规模解锁所带来的冲击?

 HYPE

研究来自 @lukas_rppt

把自己放在Hyperliquid开发者的位置上思考一下。 你为此疯狂工作了数年,一笔足以改变人生的代币即将开始解锁,而且只需轻轻一点即可获得。你会怎么做?


DATs能拯救危局吗?

随着Sonnet的推出,有史以来最大的加密货币DATs(去中心化收购信托)之一预计将在2025年第四季度完成募资。它已经募集了约5.83亿美元的HYPE代币和3.05亿美元的现金。然而,即便是Sonnet加上其他所有规模较小的HYPE DATs,与即将到来的HYPE解锁量相比,也只是杯水车薪。

 HYPE


当鲨鱼嗅到血腥

你动了加密世界老牌势力的蛋糕,就别想安然无恙地走开。商业就是战争,历史上大多数加密产品的半衰期都很短——胜利者总会引来一大群“吸血鬼攻击”。竞争正在加剧,不仅来自一线交易所,也来自像Lighter.xyz(Maelstrom投资的一家公司)这样的新竞争者。CZ在解锁前两个月力推Aster?这或许并非巧合。

 HYPE

摊牌时刻已至!

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Under the squeeze between giants Tether and Circle, how can foreign exchange stablecoins break through?

In the face of dominance by Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), new entrants in the stablecoin space face significant challenges competing directly, especially in the foreign exchange (FX) market. A more viable and efficient path forward is the adoption of synthetic foreign exchange (Forex) built atop existing USD stablecoin rails. The rise of stablecoin neo-banks represents the next major growth area for mass crypto adoption, with FX becoming a core component. However, replicating the vast liquidity, distribution channels, and network effects of USDT/USDC is extremely difficult for new FX stablecoin issuers. The total market cap of all FX stablecoins is a fraction (roughly 1/700th) of USD stablecoins, leading to issues like poor liquidity, peg instability, limited acceptance, and complex compliance hurdles. Instead of issuing spot FX stablecoins, the article advocates for a model inspired by traditional finance's non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). Users would continue to hold underlying USDT/USDC, while their account balances are displayed and economically settled in their preferred local currency through MtM (Mark-to-Market) NDF structures. This approach leverages the deep liquidity and infrastructure of USD stablecoins while providing synthetic forex exposure. Key advantages include strong peg stability via oracles, retained access to USD stablecoin yields and liquidity, high capital efficiency, and easy scalability to new currencies. Primary use cases for this on-chain NDF forex include: 1. Neo-banks, custodians, and wallets offering multi-currency accounts to attract international users and increase deposits. 2. Forex carry trade strategies, potentially offering more stable and scalable yields compared to crypto-native products like Ethena. 3. Global corporate payments, allowing businesses to receive payments in local currencies while hedging forex risk on-chain, similar to services offered by Stripe in traditional finance. This synthetic forex model presents a pragmatic solution to overcome the network effects of incumbents and unlock the next wave of stablecoin utility for global consumers and businesses.

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Under the squeeze between giants Tether and Circle, how can foreign exchange stablecoins break through?

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