发币传闻升温，带你看懂Polymarket的10个生态布局

比推Pubblicato 2025-09-16Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-09-16

作者：Zhou，ChainCatcher

原文标题：Polymarket暗示发币，一文盘点10个生态项目

Polymarket几乎已经成了预测市场的代名词。公开信息显示，今年以来，Polymarket的月度成交量多次站上10亿美元级，与排名第二的Kalshi形成断层。该项目不仅获得了特朗普长子的数千万美元投资，近期正筹备重返美国市场，同时推进新一轮融资，市场甚至称其估值可达 100 亿美元。

在此背景下，围绕Polymarket衍生出一批第三方生态，包括数据 / 看板、社交化体验、前端 / 终端、保险、AI代理等。9月 12 日，RootData将一些代表性项目收录在《Polymarket生态项目》合辑，本文将逐一介绍。

Polysights｜一站式分析面板

Polysights是围绕Polymarket的一站式分析面板。用户可以按主题和到期快速筛题，页面同时给出价格 / 成交量历史、盘口深度与点差、资金流向等关键读数；内置的AI摘要与套利 / 交易指标可帮助识别同盘或跨盘的错价机会。平台支持自选与即时提醒（含Telegram推送），并提供交易员 / 市场排行榜。它把「选题、研判、提醒」压缩到一个屏幕，减少切页与手工比对，让入场判断更快、成本预估更直观。

Polymarket Analytics｜官方统计平台

Polymarket Analytics是Polymarket官方推出的统计平台。用户通过搜索市场或地址即可拉出成交额、未平仓、价格 / 成交历史曲线以及地址的盈亏与持仓变化，并可导出CSV做复盘。平台不追求花哨的可视化试图，胜在字段完整、口径稳定，适合媒体写作、投研对比与月报 / 季报制作，用于数据取证与图表生成。

Betmoar |第三方发现 / 监控前端

Betmoar是一个第三方发现与监控前端，把Polymarket的市场做成聚合看板。其首页把市场分成四个视图：Movers（按1h/6h/24h/7d的涨跌与成交做榜单）、Bonds（关注押金 / 质押动态与风险资金变化）、Disputes（处于仲裁或判定阶段的市场集合）与Comments（汇总各市场的最新评论与活跃度）。用户可以实现一键筛选，或按成交量排序，快速判断最热 / 最新的事件是什么，用户下单仍跳转到Polymarket官方页面完成。

polycule｜Polymarket 的 Telegram 交易机器人

polycule是一款与 Polymarket 对接的 Telegram 交易机器人，用户在聊天窗口就能检索市场、查看盘口要点并直接发起 YES/NO 下单，更适合移动端的轻入口使用场景。对新用户友好的是，polycule内置Solana → Polygon的桥接（使用deBridge），并可自动把少量SOL兑换为POL作为Gas，减少首次参与的换币与准备成本。

2025 年 5 月，polycule 发行代币PCULE，当前市值约1475万美元。 6 月，该团队宣布获得 AllianceDAO 56 万美元投资；同月，X 与 Polymarket 宣布达成官方合作，提升了预测市场在主流社交平台的曝光与分发，这类外部流量入口也间接利好围绕 Polymarket 的工具型产品。

Polymtrade |交易终端

与polycule不同，Polymtrade是面向Polymarket的重度交易终端。其采用多面板布局，把行情、订单簿 / 深度、委托与持仓放在同屏，支持键盘热键与批量下单。另外，它的下单窗会显示预估滑点与费用，且组合视图可以按题材或到期顺序排序，便于对冲与网格管理。该项目的价值在于把「看行情—下单—调仓」过程压缩到几步，让Polymarket的使用体验更接近日内交易所。其代币 PM 于 7 月上线，当前市值约56万美元。

fireplace｜社交化交易信息流

fireplace聚焦于Polymarket预测市场的社交化体验，以信息流的形式呈现用户在 Polymarket 关注账户的最新交易动态，并且对任何交易进行评论、回复与复制。

Polyagent | AI助手 / 研究工具

Polyagent是一个围绕Polymarket的AI助手 / 研究工具，以情报聚合与分析为主。平台强调用模型＋检索来解读盘面，目前官方公布已索引1500+个Polymarket市场，提供检索与对话功能，近期还上线了标签检索等特性。其代币 POLYAGENT 于 9 月 8 日上线，当前市值约125万美元。

Polyfactual｜保险+套利双线

Polyfactual是一个面向预测市场的风控与策略平台，目前官方将其业务拆成两条线，用一部分资金帮市场兜底异常风险，用另一部分资金去赚两平台之间的价格差。

  • 保险侧（Project X）：发行与具体事件结果绑定的代币，募集的资金进入「再保险 / 流动性」池。当某个市场出现判定 / 结算异常时，用这笔资金为参与者提供保障，相当于给平台的判定层加一层缓冲。其代币持有人按规则分享保费 / 收益，同时也承担对应风险。

  • 套利侧（Project Y）：通过运行跨平台机器人，长期监控Polymarket与Kalshi等平台，一旦发现同一事件在两边报价不一致，就同时买卖、锁定差价，所得收益按POLYFACTS的持仓 / 质押比例分配给持币者。其代币 POLYFACTS 于 9 月 2 日上线，当前市值约426万美元。

Flipr｜策略化交易Bot

Flipr是一款策略化的 Polymarket 交易Bot。用户可以配置触发条件（价格到达、点差缩小、成交放量、关键字出现等）与执行规则（下单数量、滑点上限、分批进出、到期前自动减仓），让它在后台持续运行。对于不想盯盘、但有明确条件交易法则的用户来说，Flipr可以把具体的操作想法落成可执行的策略。其代币 FLIPR于 7 月 11 日上线，目前市值约 437 万美元。

Billy Bets AI｜体育场景AI代理

Billy Bets AI聚焦体育赛道的AI代理。在选择联赛 / 球队后，系统直接汇总其近期战绩、伤停、赛程与市场盘口，给出胜负 / 让分 / 大小分的概率与推荐，并附上关联的Polymarket体育事件链接，用户可以一键下单。该项目的特点在于把数据与下注串起来，对高频体育用户来说是个省时的赛前情报＋执行组合。

Twitter：https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN

比推 TG 交流群：https://t.me/BitPushCommunity

比推 TG 订阅： https://t.me/bitpush

原文链接:https://www.panewslab.com/zh/articles/2e00442c-3a96-4462-9718-4288418c11b5
说明: 比推所有文章只代表作者观点，不构成投资建议
相关新闻

Letture associate

After $HYPE Hits a New High, Is It Worth Considering the Stock of "HYPE Version MicroStrategy" $PURR?

**HYPE Hits New Highs: Is $PURR, the "HYPE Version of MicroStrategy," Worth Considering?** The stock of Hyperliquid Strategies (NASDAQ: $PURR), a publicly-traded company that exclusively buys and holds the cryptocurrency HYPE, has gained over 100% year-to-date, mirroring HYPE's own 150% surge to new all-time highs. This has sparked discussions about PURR being a more "capital-efficient" play than MicroStrategy's bitcoin strategy, given its reported ~$1 billion unrealized gain on a ~$220 million investment. The article clarifies that PURR is essentially a pure-play wrapper for HYPE, with no other business. It resulted from a 2025 SPAC merger led by firms like Paradigm and Atlas Merchant Capital, bringing traditional finance veterans to its board. Its value is entirely derived from the price of HYPE. While PURR offers a crucial compliance bridge for US-based institutional and retirement accounts unable to access HYPE directly, the analysis questions the "capital efficiency" narrative. The outsized gains are attributed to HYPE's exceptional performance, not superior corporate strategy. For investors who can buy HYPE directly, holding PURR introduces unnecessary risks: potential shareholder dilution from future stock offerings, incomplete passthrough of staking rewards, market hour mismatches, and counterparty risk via its single custodian. A key metric is its mNAV (modified net asset value). Current calculations show PURR trades at a discount to its HYPE holdings, but this could flip to a premium depending on the execution of registered share issuances. The article concludes that PURR is primarily a "conduit product." The investment thesis hinges entirely on one's bullishness on HYPE itself, not on the PURR wrapper, which adds friction and risk for those with direct crypto access.

marsbit27 min fa

After $HYPE Hits a New High, Is It Worth Considering the Stock of "HYPE Version MicroStrategy" $PURR?

marsbit27 min fa

The Real Progress and Investment Opportunities of Decentralized AI Computing Power Networks in 2026

In 2026, the AI compute market is marked by centralized GPU consolidation and a significant GPU shortage for smaller players. In this context, Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN), valued at $9.4B+, have emerged as a viable, revenue-generating alternative. Leading protocols like Aethir ($150M ARR), io.net (130k+ GPUs), Akash, Bittensor, and Render are carving out distinct niches, moving beyond hype to deliver verifiable income primarily from non-crypto-native clients. The key advantage of decentralized GPU networks lies in serving latency-tolerant, cost-sensitive workloads like AI inference, fine-tuning, data preprocessing, and agent operations, offering substantial cost savings (45-80%) compared to major cloud providers. However, reliability variance, lack of robust SLAs, and fragmented tech stacks remain significant adoption hurdles. The sector is maturing with critical 2026 shifts: 1) Evolution of tokenomics towards demand-driven, revenue-linked models (e.g., Render's BME, io.net's IDE), and 2) Clearer enterprise adoption pathways, with traditional firms integrating decentralized compute. For new entrants, opportunities are now concentrated in specialized tooling layers (orchestration, verification, SLA management), vertical applications (e.g., bio-med, content generation), and innovative token designs tied to real usage, rather than generic GPU aggregation. The convergence with the emerging AI Agent economy presents a significant future growth vector.

marsbit28 min fa

The Real Progress and Investment Opportunities of Decentralized AI Computing Power Networks in 2026

marsbit28 min fa

The Iran Deal Is Not a Finale, But a 60-Day Political Respite

The reported "Iran deal" is not a comprehensive peace agreement, but a proposed 60-day memorandum of understanding. During this period, Iran would clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz, the US would lift its naval blockade, and Iran would receive a sanctions waiver to sell oil, with formal nuclear negotiations to follow. However, the core structural conflicts remain unresolved: Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, ultimate control of the Strait, the sequence of sanctions relief versus nuclear concessions, and the potential for Israeli unilateral action to derail the process. The article highlights deeper geopolitical currents: China is indirectly shaping talks via Pakistan to restore Iranian oil flows and curb US dominance, while trade routes through Oman and the UAE create leaks in the US blockade. Parallel US diplomatic efforts aim to draw India into its security framework, though India remains cautious. Ultimately, the deal offers short-term political breathing room for both Washington and Tehran. The true test will come after the 60-day window, when the irreconcilable demands—US insistence on nuclear rollback versus Iran's determination to retain the Strait as a deterrent—will resurface, determining if this is a path to peace or merely a managed pause in the conflict.

marsbit38 min fa

The Iran Deal Is Not a Finale, But a 60-Day Political Respite

marsbit38 min fa

We Captured Thousands of Job Postings and Discovered ByteDance is Reviving Smartphone R&D

This article analyzes ByteDance's recent hiring activities, revealing a potential restart of smartphone hardware development. By scraping and analyzing thousands of ByteDance job postings, the authors identify three key categories: roles for the "Doubao Phone Assistant" (an AI agent), for a "Mobile OS" (system-level development), and for hardware/engineering positions in Shenzhen (a manufacturing hub). The piece traces the context to the 2025 launch of the "Doubao Phone," a concept device that integrated an AI agent directly into a smartphone, allowing it to see the screen, operate apps, and perform tasks like shopping or booking tickets. While innovative as an early AI Agent prototype, it faced operational restrictions from major platforms like WeChat and Alipay. The new hiring signals a deeper commitment. "Doubao Phone Assistant" roles focus on core Agent capabilities (task execution, memory, cross-app operation). "Mobile OS" positions involve deep system work (kernel, chip adaptation, power/thermal management) necessary for a responsive, always-on AI. Shenzhen-based hardware roles (structure design, testing, production) suggest preparation for physical device manufacturing. The article concludes that in the AI era, where phones may become an Agent's "body," controlling the operating system and hardware is critical. For a company like ByteDance, being merely an app within others' ecosystems is no longer sustainable if it aims to own the next-generation user interface. Therefore, while a consumer phone brand isn't confirmed, ByteDance is decisively moving beyond app development into the complex domain of system-level and hardware-integrated AI.

marsbit58 min fa

We Captured Thousands of Job Postings and Discovered ByteDance is Reviving Smartphone R&D

marsbit58 min fa

AI Impact on SaaS Software Stocks: Deconstructing the Bottom-Fishing Logic of Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake

"AI Nightmare for SaaS Stocks: Unpacking the Bottom-Fishing Logic for Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake" A deep dive analysis argues that the recent collapse in SaaS software stocks, dubbed the "SaaS Doom," presents a contrarian buying opportunity. The market panic, triggered by fears that AI will disrupt traditional per-user subscription models through "seat compression" and AI agents bypassing software UIs, has led to extreme selling in the software sector. The analysis evaluates three major players under a unified framework: 1. **Salesforce (CRM):** Positioned as a "margin of safety" play. Trading at historically low valuations (13-14x forward P/E), with strong cash flow and a massive buyback, it offers value. Its key challenge is transitioning from a "seat economy" to an AI-driven "task economy" with its Agentforce platform. 2. **ServiceNow (NOW):** The "clearest AI narrative" play. Its "AI Control Tower" strategy aims to become the governance and orchestration layer for enterprise AI agents, benefiting from AI proliferation. Backed by Nvidia's CEO, it trades at a relatively low valuation post-correction. 3. **Snowflake (SNOW):** The "high-risk, high-reward" bet. Its consumption-based model aligns with rising AI workloads, and its RPO growth is strong. However, it faces intense competition (e.g., Databricks), is not yet GAAP profitable, and carries the highest valuation. The conclusion counters the simplified "AI kills software" narrative. AI is eliminating software that sells only functional interfaces but rewarding platforms that provide essential infrastructure, data, and governance. The current sell-off may have created a buying opportunity for resilient software leaders positioned as future AI infrastructure platforms.

marsbit1 h fa

AI Impact on SaaS Software Stocks: Deconstructing the Bottom-Fishing Logic of Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake

marsbit1 h fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片