美国稳定币法案通过后,欧盟加速推进数字欧元计划

marsbitPubblicato 2025-08-21Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-08-22

面对美国在稳定币立法上的迅速推进,欧盟正在重新评估并加速其数字欧元计划,以捍卫欧元的竞争力和欧洲的金融主权。

据英国《金融时报》8 月 22 日报道,参与讨论的人士透露,美国国会上月通过的旨在监管 2880 亿美元稳定币市场的《Genius Act》法案,已在布鲁塞尔和法兰克福引发震动。该法案促使欧盟官员产生紧迫感,认为必须加快行动。

欧盟官员近期一直在「重新考虑数字欧元的计划」。知情人士表示,美国这项法律的快速通过「让很多人感到震惊」,并补充道:「他们在说,『让我们加快速度,让我们努力』。」

同时,这一紧迫感正推动一个重大的技术路线转变。欧盟官员现在正更认真地考虑在以太坊或 Solana 等公共区块链上运行数字欧元。此举与此前因隐私顾虑而倾向于使用私有区块链的预期形成鲜明对比。

美元主导的担忧

美国在稳定币领域的立法进展,加剧了欧洲决策者对美元主导地位的长期忧虑。目前,稳定币市场绝大部分由美元计价的代币构成,由 Circle 和 Tether 等加密货币公司运营,而花旗和摩根大通等美国传统金融巨头也在考虑发行自己的稳定币。

欧洲央行执行董事会成员 Piero Cipollone 在今年四月曾警告,美国政府对美元支持的稳定币的推广,「引发了对欧洲金融稳定和战略自主权的担忧」。他指出,这可能导致「欧元存款转移到美国,并进一步加强美元在跨境支付中的作用」。

相比之下,欧元计价的稳定币市场规模仍然很小目前最大的欧元稳定币由 Circle 公司发行,市值仅为 2.25 亿美元,与庞大的美元稳定币市场不可同日而语。一位参与讨论的人士表示,美国的法案「正在催生此前不存在的对话」,推动欧盟采取更果断的行动。

技术路径的重大转变

为应对挑战,欧盟内部正在讨论一个根本性的策略调整:数字欧元的技术基础。此前,外界普遍预计数字欧元将运行在一个由央行控制的私有化网络上。

然而,据知情人士透露,公共区块链方案正被「更严肃地对待」。在公共区块链上运行数字欧元,理论上可以使其在任何地方进行交易,从而极大地促进其流通和使用。但这一方案也带来了新的挑战,主要是公共账本的透明性可能引发用户隐私问题,这是官方此前保持谨慎的核心原因。

如今,为了与美国主导的、基于市场的数字资产生态系统竞争,欧盟似乎愿意重新权衡开放性与隐私性之间的利弊。

全球央行数字货币竞赛

欧盟的最新动向,是全球央行数字货币(CBDC)竞赛加速的又一例证。欧洲央行研究数字欧元已有数年,其支持者认为,随着现金使用量下降,由央行背书的数字货币将为公众提供一种安全的支付方式,同时有助于提升欧元的国际地位。

在这场竞赛中,中国的数字人民币被认为走在最前列,而英国也在考虑创建数字英镑。对欧盟而言,由欧洲央行亲自发行数字欧元,将是其巩固该地区数字资产承诺的决定性一步,正如 Piero Cipollone 所言:「欧洲不能过度依赖外国的支付解决方案。」

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JPMorgan Research Report Analysis: Moderna's INT Trial Meets Endpoints, but Market Already Priced In

On August 19, J.P. Morgan (JPM) published a research report analyzing Moderna's recent Phase III trial success for its Individualized Neoantigen Therapy (INT), developed in partnership with Merck, in adjuvant melanoma. The trial met its primary endpoint of significantly improved recurrence-free survival and the key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival. While JPM acknowledged the strong clinical value of these results, particularly the prevention of distant metastasis, the bank stated that this success was widely anticipated, with an 85% prior probability of success, and is already reflected in Moderna's current market valuation. Following the announcement, Moderna's stock rose in pre-market trading. However, JPM maintained its Underweight rating and $40 price target, implying approximately 36% downside from the current price of ~$63. The core rationale is that the success in adjuvant melanoma, a relatively small market in immuno-oncology, is fully priced in. Moderna's future valuation hinges entirely on INT's ability to demonstrate similar efficacy across broader cancer indications. JPM's valuation model incorporates only a modest risk-adjusted value (~$3/share) for the melanoma approval. Approximately $15/share of its target price is attributed to INT's potential in other cancer types. The report identifies upcoming data readouts in non-melanoma cancers (e.g., lung, head & neck, renal) as the critical variable that will determine the platform's ultimate value. Upside risks include better-than-expected data in these new indications, while downside risks involve clinical failures, regulatory delays, or commercial underperformance. In conclusion, JPM views the pre-market stock move as driven by short covering and trading sentiment rather than a fundamental re-rating. The bank remains bearish, arguing that Moderna must now prove INT's efficacy as a platform technology beyond melanoma to justify its current market cap.

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JPMorgan Research Report Analysis: Moderna's INT Trial Meets Endpoints, but Market Already Priced In

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Treasury Department Directly Intervenes to Suppress Long-Term Interest Rates

The article discusses the U.S. Treasury's recent direct intervention to suppress long-term bond yields through buyback operations. While distinct from traditional Yield Curve Control (YCC), this move is interpreted as direct government intervention in its own financing costs. The author emphasizes the short-term tactical nature of this action and contrasts it with the Federal Reserve's upcoming, potentially divergent, policy stance at Jackson Hole. The core issue is framed as a long-term U.S. strategic dilemma: managing high deficit levels. The analysis argues that deficit reduction cannot realistically come from spending cuts or traditional industries, but must rely on achieving higher economic growth driven by technological breakthroughs. Current monetary tightening, while possibly curbing yields and inflation in the short term, is seen as potentially counterproductive to this necessary long-term investment in technology and supply chain resilience. The piece draws historical parallels, placing the current intervention between the 2000-2002 Treasury buybacks (for liquidity) and larger-scale Fed-led "Operation Twist" maneuvers. The effectiveness of the Treasury's action is deemed limited without Federal Reserve cooperation, which would signify a more significant policy shift. Ultimately, the author views such technical, bureaucratic interventions as treating symptoms rather than the underlying disease of the U.S. economy's structural challenges and "K-shaped" divergence. The conclusion suggests that sustained yield suppression by the Fed, combined with specific geopolitical outcomes, could serve as a catalyst for a more profound discussion on broader U.S. and dollar trajectory.

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Treasury Department Directly Intervenes to Suppress Long-Term Interest Rates

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