特朗普强推亲加密联储理事，九月降息已成定局？

深潮Pubblicato 2025-08-09Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-08-10

本周稳定币持续增发，美国比特币、以太坊现货ETF持续净流入，以太坊在本周突破4000美金，表现亮眼。

作者：Hotcoin Research

加密货币市场表现

当前，加密货币总市值为 3.86万亿美元，BTC占比 60%，为 2.3万亿美元。稳定币市值为 2698亿美元，最近7日增幅1.04%，其中USDT占比61.21%。

CoinMarketCap前200的项目中，大部分上涨小部分下跌，其中：MNT 7日涨幅41.91%，PENDLE 7日涨幅31.81%，PUMP 7日涨幅29.16%，MYX 7日涨幅1420.3%，TOSHI 7日涨幅22.52%。

本周，美国比特币现货ETF净流入：2.536亿美元；美国以太坊现货ETF净流入：3.264亿美元。

市场预测（8月11日-8月15日）：

本周稳定币持续增发，美国比特币、以太坊现货ETF持续净流入，以太坊在本周突破4000美金，表现亮眼。RSI指数为62.75，呈现超买。恐惧贪婪指数为68（指数高于上周）。

BTC：大概率在114,500-118,500美元区间震荡，突破方向将取决于美国CPI数据。若数据支持降息预期，有望测试120,000美元；若数据强劲，可能回落至112,500美元支撑；

ETH：表现可能继续强于BTC，主要波动区间3,750-4,200美元。SEC关于现货ETF的任何积极信号都可能推动ETH继续突破。

短期投资者：可采取区间交易策略，在支撑位附近买入，阻力位附近部分获利了结。

中长期投资者：应利用可能的回调机会分批建仓，重点关注BTC 112,500美元和ETH 3,300美元附近的强支撑区域。

了解现在

回顾一周大事件

1. 8 月 6 日，美国证券交易委员会发布关于流动性质押活动的声明，称流动性押活动不被视为证券；

2. 8 月 6 日，Base 发布宕机事故报告，其于 8 月 5 日出现了 33 分钟的区块生成中断，原因是其切换到了一个备份排序器，而该排序器未正确设置以处理交易；

3. 8 月 5 日，京东旗下京东币链表示，已关注到市场上的不实报道和谣言，京东币链特此回应，正在进行香港稳定币牌照申请的准备工作；

4. 8 月 7 日，据 Etherscan 数据，以太坊网络昨日日交易笔数升至 187 万笔，接近 2024 年 1 月 14 日创下的 196 万笔历史最高纪录；

5. 8 月 6 日，芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）旗下 Cboe BZX 已向美国证券交易委员会提交 19b-4 文件，要求允许 VanEck 以太坊 ETF 通过受信任的质押提供商质押 ETH，以获得奖励作为收入；

6. 8 月 6 日，芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）旗下 Cboe BZX 已向美国证券交易委员会提交 19b-4 文件，要求允许 VanEck 以太坊 ETF 通过受信任的质押提供商质押 ETH，以获得奖励作为收入。SEC与Ripple正式结束为期4年的法律战，维持一审判决；

7. 8 月 8 日，特朗普宣布提名「亲加密」官员Stephen Miran担任美联储理事。

宏观经济

1. 8 月 6 日，美国白宫表示，特朗普签署一项行政令，对来自印度的商品额外加征 25% 的关税，以回应印度继续购买俄罗斯石油。特朗普对印度出台新的关税后，油价短线走高，触及日内高点；

2. 8 月 7 日，英国央行降息 25 个基点，将基准利率从 4.25% 下调至 4%，为本轮降息周期的第五次降息，符合市场预期；

3. 8 月 7 日，美国至 8 月 2 日当周初请失业金人数 22.6 万人，预期 22.1 万人；

4. 8 月 8 日，据 CME「美联储观察」数据，9 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 92.7%，维持利率不变的概率为 7.3%。

ETF

据统计，在8月4日-8月8日期间，美国比特币现货ETF净流入：2.536亿美元；截止到8月8日，GBTC（灰度）共计流出：236.62亿美元，目前持有210.58亿美元，IBIT（贝莱德）目前持有859.56亿美元。美国比特币现货ETF总市值为：1520.24亿美元。

美国以太坊现货ETF净流入：3.264亿美元。

预见未来

活动预告

1. Coinfest Asia 2025 将于8 月 21 日至 22 日在印度尼西亚巴厘岛举办；

2. WebX Asia 2025 将于 8 月 25 日至 26 日在日本·东京举办；

3. Bitcoin Asia 2025 将于 8 月 28 日至 29 日在香港会议展览中心举办。

重要事件

1. 8月12日12:30，澳洲联储将公布利率决议；

2. 8月12日20:30，美国将公布 7月未季调CPI(年率)；

3. 8月14日20:30，美国将公布上周季调后初请失业金人数(千人)(至0809)。

代币解锁

1. Aptos（APT）将于8月12日解锁 1130万枚代币，价值5304万美元，占流通量的2.2%；

2. Avalanche（AVAX）将于8月15日解锁167万枚代币，价值约3914万美元，占流通量的0.33%；

3. Starknet（STRK）将于8月15日解锁1.26亿枚代币，价值1618万美元，占流通量的5.98%；

4. Sei（SEI）将于8月15日解锁5556万枚代币，价值约1712万美元，占流通量的1.21%；

5. Arbitrum（ARB）将于8月16日解锁9263万枚代币，价值约3911万美元，占流通量的2.04%。

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