比特币过热缓解下半年会反弹吗?SUI 交易量超 AVAX 等却遭撤离、哪三种山寨币有买入信号

金色财经Pubblicato 2025-07-31Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-07-31

比特币:过热信号消退,下半年或反弹至 15 万美元

比特币近期跌破 12 万美元,现稳定在 11.75 万美元左右,过热信号逐渐缓解。

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分析师指出,短期持有者(1 天至 1 周)的峰值连续走低,当前过热程度和持续时间均短于 2024 年 3-10 月及 2025 年 1-4 月的两次阶段,预计回调温和且短暂。

技术面显示,布林带收紧、RSI 收缩,或预示即将突破。

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累计销毁天数(CVD)指标显示,下一个峰值可能接近 14.97 万美元。

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不过,交易所储备量创一月新高,需警惕部分持有者抛售带来的压力。

SUI:交易量领先却遇价格疲软,资金流出引关注

SUI 近 24 小时跌 4%,现价 3.82 美元,但 7 月交易量达 445.9 亿美元,超 AVAX、NEAR、HYPE 之和(多出 80 亿美元)。

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其 DeFi 协议支持比特币交易(如 BTCfi 在 DeepBook 提供流动性、永续合约等),推动总锁定价值(TVL)自 1 月增长 480% 至 22.95 亿美元(含流动性质押等达 34.8 亿美元),稳定币市值 10.36 亿美元,每日流入 236 万美元。

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技术面看,价格突破一目均衡表阻力后回测 3.61 美元,资金流量指数(MFI)降至 36.47,显示资金流出。

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但衍生品数据仍谨慎乐观:融资利率为正,未平仓合约从 26.6 亿美元降至 24.1 亿美元,仍高于 20 亿美元,机构兴趣未完全消退。

三种山寨币现买入机会:XRP、MAGACOIN、ADA

XRP:近七日跌 12.46%,现价 3.07 美元,但鲸鱼持续增持,日交易量 68.6 亿美元,ETF 预期仍支撑市场,或形成价格底部。

MAGACOIN FINANCE:预售接近饱和,凭借社区活力和实用功能,预期涨幅达 31 倍,早期投资者 “错失恐惧”(FOMO)明显。

Cardano(ADA):本周跌 12%,现价 0.7763 美元,日交易量超 10 亿美元。即将到来的午夜空投或提升活跃度,分析师预测 8 月可能升至 1.10 美元。

三者分别代表机构潜力、早期投机机会和社区驱动叙事,值得关注下一轮反弹。

Letture associate

Morning Post | Bitmine Plans to Raise $300 Million Through Preferred Stock Issuance; Polymarket Accuses Kalshi of Commercial Espionage

ChainCatcher's Daily Crypto Brief: Key developments from the past 24 hours include significant funding moves, regulatory actions, and market predictions. Bitmine announced a $300 million preferred stock fundraising. Polymarket accused rival prediction platform Kalshi of corporate espionage, citing numerous suspicious coincidences in product launches, a claim Kalshi strongly denied. The U.S. Department of Justice, in a joint "Disruption Week" anti-fraud operation with companies like Coinbase and Meta, froze over $3.8 million in cryptocurrency linked to scams. In infrastructure news, Macau completed its integration with the multi-central bank digital currency bridge, mBridge, aiming to build efficient cross-border payment channels. Cosmos Labs acquired the block explorer Mintscan. Market-wise, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Assets Research, stated Bitcoin is nearing a bottom around $63,000, maintaining a year-end target of $100,000. He noted stability in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings. Ahead of SpaceX's anticipated IPO, internal insiders at Rocket Lab (RKLB) sold over $18.41 million in stock. In tokenization, Goldman Sachs partnered with Apex and Archax to launch a tokenized real estate fund. The meme token tracker GMGN reported the top trending tokens: on Ethereum, HEX, SHIB, LINK, PEPE, mUSD; on Solana, TROLL, swarms, WORLDCUP, neet, Buttcoin; and on Base, PEPE, toby, ODDS, ELSA, SKI.

链捕手13 min fa

Morning Post | Bitmine Plans to Raise $300 Million Through Preferred Stock Issuance; Polymarket Accuses Kalshi of Commercial Espionage

链捕手13 min fa

55TB to 28TB? The Rumor and Panic Behind Rubin's Memory Being Halved

Title: 55TB to 28TB? The Rumor and Panic Behind the Potential Halving of Rubin's Memory. On June 4th, a report from SemiAnalysis suggested NVIDIA's next-gen Vera Rubin NVL72 AI rack may ship with roughly 28TB of SOCAMM DRAM per rack instead of the anticipated 55TB, primarily using 96GB modules. This sparked a market panic, causing Micron's stock to drop over 10% on fears of halved memory demand. However, the article argues this panic is misguided for several key reasons. First, SOCAMM modules are socketed and upgradeable, not soldered. Lower initial configuration doesn't mean permanent demand loss. Second, the primary driver is a severe 2026 LPDDR5X supply shortage, not diminished need. NVIDIA is likely prioritizing rack shipments with available components. Third, with fixed total LPDDR5X supply, using less per rack could allow NVIDIA to ship *more* racks, not necessarily reducing overall memory orders. Micron's sharp drop was also attributed to a broader semiconductor sell-off triggered by Broadcom's earnings, with the SemiAnalysis report providing a convenient narrative for profit-taking after Micron's massive rally. In summary: the report on lower default configurations is likely accurate, but interpreting it as a demand collapse is wrong. The real risk for Micron lies in its reportedly minimal HBM4 share for Rubin, not in potentially flexible SOCAMM demand. The sell-off appears more like a correction amplified by coinciding negative catalysts.

marsbit30 min fa

55TB to 28TB? The Rumor and Panic Behind Rubin's Memory Being Halved

marsbit30 min fa

Exclusive from Yingke | Tang Wenbin's 'Yuanli Lingji' Merges with Logistics Robotics Company, and Secures Investment from Zhipu, SenseTime, Jieyue, and Others

Exclusive report: Embodied AI company "Yuanli Lingji" recently completed a new round of financing from major AI model firms including Zhipu AI, Stepfun, and SenseTime, alongside continued investments from industrial backers like Huaqin and SAIC Hengxu. Founded in March 2025 by Tang Wenbin, former co-founder and CTO of Megvii, Yuanli Lingji is a general-purpose embodied AI model company. In a notable move, the company has merged with logistics robotics firm "Atomix" (formerly known as Yuanli Juhe) through a share acquisition. Atomix, which originated from Megvii's logistics robotics business led by Tang in 2016 and was spun off in July 2024, has grown to become the world's second-largest supplier of pallet shuttle robots, with annual revenue nearing 1 billion RMB and over 500 projects globally for clients like Uniqlo and CATL. This merger aims to break the industry's "data deadlock" by combining Atomix's extensive real-world operational data from more than 20 countries with Yuanli Lingji's model training capabilities. The company's embodied AI model "DM0" utilizes a cross-domain training approach, integrating internet semantics, autonomous driving rules, and robotics data to achieve hardware-agnostic, precise manipulation even with a compact 2.4B parameter size. The collective investment from key AI players and the strategic merger signal a shift in the competitive landscape, as major model companies pivot from language tokens to physical actions ("from Token to Action"). The industry is entering a consolidation phase where hardware, AI models, data, and application scenarios converge to scale embodied intelligence, a trend mirrored by recent moves from giants like ByteDance and Skild AI.

marsbit38 min fa

Exclusive from Yingke | Tang Wenbin's 'Yuanli Lingji' Merges with Logistics Robotics Company, and Secures Investment from Zhipu, SenseTime, Jieyue, and Others

marsbit38 min fa

U.S. Stock Market Trends: Dow Hits New High, Nasdaq Falls, Whom Did Broadcom's Slap Wake Up?

U.S. Stocks Split: Dow Hits Record High as Nasdaq Slips; Broadcom's Plunge Sparks Rotation On June 4, the U.S. stock market saw a sharp divergence. The Dow Jones surged 875 points (+1.73%) to a record high of 51,561.93, while the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.09%. The S&P 500 rose 0.41%. The primary catalyst was a sharp sell-off in AI-related chip stocks, led by Broadcom (AVGO). Despite reporting a 143% year-over-year jump in AI semiconductor revenue to $10.8 billion, the company's shares plunged about 14%. This was triggered by its maintained long-term AI revenue target, which failed to meet heightened expectations for a stock that had gained 55% this quarter and traded at a high P/E ratio. The slide dragged down the broader semiconductor sector and the technology板块. Conversely, money rotated into sectors like Healthcare (+3.14%), Financials (+2.67%), and Real Estate (+1.87%). UnitedHealth and Goldman Sachs were major contributors to the Dow's gains. The rotation was attributed to a search for value outside overheated tech names and a slight dip in Treasury yields. In other major news, SpaceX confirmed its IPO for June 12, targeting a record $75 billion raise at a ~$1.75 trillion valuation. Additionally, initial jobless claims rose to a four-month high, adding nuance to the labor market narrative ahead of the key May non-farm payrolls report. The day's action signaled that while the AI growth story remains intact, excessive valuations are prompting a market reassessment. Funds are moving, at least temporarily, from high-flying tech to more defensive and value-oriented sectors. The sustainability of this rotation hinges on upcoming economic data, particularly the jobs report, and the market's absorption of the massive SpaceX IPO.

marsbit41 min fa

U.S. Stock Market Trends: Dow Hits New High, Nasdaq Falls, Whom Did Broadcom's Slap Wake Up?

marsbit41 min fa

From 'Old Dogs' to 'New Darlings': How AI is Revaluing Old Infrastructure, from Dell to Nokia

"Old Dogs" Become AI's New Darlings: Revaluing Legacy Infrastructure The AI investment narrative is shifting. Beyond the spotlight on core chipmakers like Nvidia, a new wave of interest is rising for legacy tech companies—Dell, HPE, Nokia, Cisco, Corning, Western Digital—once labeled as slow-growth, outdated stories. This resurgence stems from AI's evolution from model development to real-world deployment, creating massive demand for physical infrastructure. As AI moves into data center construction and enterprise adoption, the focus turns to who can actually build and deliver complex systems. These established players hold decades of experience in supply chains, integration, networking, and enterprise delivery—assets now critical for scaling AI. The revaluation can be grouped into three key infrastructure areas: 1. **Servers & Integration (e.g., Dell, HPE):** They are becoming essential system integrators, transforming GPUs into full-scale AI servers with networking, power, and cooling, then delivering them to clients. Strong recent earnings and AI-specific revenue/order growth for Dell and HPE underscore this shift. 2. **Networking & Connectivity (e.g., Corning, Nokia, Cisco):** As AI clusters grow, high-speed data transfer becomes paramount. Corning benefits from fiber demand for data center links, Nokia is exploring AI-integrated wireless networks (AI-RAN), and Cisco sees surging orders for data center switches—all critical for efficient AI operations. 3. **Storage (e.g., Western Digital, Seagate):** The AI data explosion requires vast capacity. Beyond high-speed memory (HBM), there's growing need for high-capacity HDDs to store training data, logs, video, and cold/archival data cost-effectively. This revaluation, however, is not a blanket endorsement. True reassessment requires concrete proof: AI-driven orders and revenue growth, upward revisions to company guidance, and sustainable improvements in profit quality, not just top-line sales. In essence, AI is not turning all old tech firms into high-growth stocks; it is selectively re-pricing the "old assets" of companies that are mission-critical for building the new AI infrastructure, transforming their legacy capabilities into renewed growth engines.

marsbit50 min fa

From 'Old Dogs' to 'New Darlings': How AI is Revaluing Old Infrastructure, from Dell to Nokia

marsbit50 min fa

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