火星早报 | 鲍威尔表态倾向鹰派立场,白宫加密货币报告正式发布

marsbitPubblicato 2025-07-30Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-07-31

白宫白宫加密货币报告正式发布

7 月 31 日,白宫加密货币报告正式发布。从连接东西海岸的铁路,到连接全世界的互联网,自建国以来,每一代美国企业家都引领了下一代技术的建设。「加密 3.0」(Crypto3)也不应例外。作为本报告的撰写者,工作小组(Working Group)支持这样的理念:数字资产和区块链技术不仅能够彻底革新美国的金融体系,还可以革新整个经济体系中的所有权结构和治理体系。利用这些技术开创新兴行业的美国企业家,应当获得清晰的政策指引以及对其成就的充分肯定。核心政策建议如下:

· 美国公民与企业应有权合法持有数字资产并使用区块链技术,不应担心被追责;

· 为建设全球最深、最具流动性的美国数字资产市场打下基础:美国证券交易委员会(SEC)与商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)应立即动用现有权限,在联邦层面开放数字资产交易。

· 银行业监管者不应重蹈拜登时期「钳制行动 2.0」的覆辙,而应拥抱区块链与数字资产带来的机遇;

· 支持美元稳定币成为数字时代支付创新的核心,助力美元在全球维持主导地位;

· 美国执法机构应有能力打击使用数字资产从事非法活动的人,但不得滥用工具打压守法公民等等。

美联储利率决议有两名理事投反对票,为近30多年来首次

7 月 31 日,美联储周三维持利率不变,决议过程出现罕见分歧,声明未明确何时可能降息。此次决议遭到两位由特朗普任命的理事——沃勒和鲍曼的反对,两人均认为当前的货币政策过于紧缩。这是 30 多年来首次有两名理事在决议中投出反对票。FOMC 以 9 比 2 投票决定将基准隔夜利率维持在 4.25%-4.50% 区间,连续第五次会议按兵不动。

美联储在声明中表示:「失业率仍处于低位,就业市场状况依然稳健。通胀仍然略高。」声明同时指出,经济增长在上半年「有所放缓」,这可能强化了若该趋势持续,美联储在未来某次会议上降息的理由。不过声明也强调,「对经济前景的不确定性仍然较高」,并称通胀与就业目标都面临风险。这种措辞反映出美联储在通胀与就业路径尚不明朗前仍不愿贸然降息。

分析师:鲍威尔表态倾向鹰派立场

7 月 31 日,分析师 Chris Anstey 称,鲍威尔表示,「仍有许多、许多不确定性需要解决。是的,我们确实在不断获得更多信息。但目前来看,我们距离这一过程的终点还不算太近。展望未来,感觉还有很多事情将会发生。」这番话倾向于鹰派立场。美联储主席鲍威尔还表示,无法在六周后依据 6 月份的预测(点阵图)来做决策。其个人的判断是(当前政策)处于适度限制性区间,不过(各方)对此存在一系列不同的预估。

Cboe BZX与Arca向美SEC提出新上市标准,以简化加密货币ETF审批流程

7 月 31 日,据 The Block 报道,Cboe BZX Exchange 和 Arca 公司提出了加密货币 ETF 的上市标准,旨在加快其公开交易的审批流程。 在周三提交给美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的文件中,Cboe BZX 请求 SEC 修改一项规则,以「允许符合拟议规则 14.11(e)(4) 要求的商品型信托股份进行通用上市和交易」。该规则监管商品型信托股份的交易和上市,并对某些股份在交易平台上市设有具体要求。

分析师:美SEC公布加密ETF上市新标准,Coinbase期货挂钩币种有望率先获批

7 月 31 日,彭博 ETF 高级分析师 Eric Balchunas 在社交媒体发文表示,美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 的加密货币 ETP「上市标准」已通过新的交易平台备案文件发布。 核心结论是:任何在 Coinbase 衍生品交易平台上市、且期货交易持续超过 6 个月的代币,都有望获得批准。目前大约有十几种主流币种符合标准,和之前预测概率在 85% 以上的那些一样。唯一悬而未决的问题是时间点,这批 ETF 可能于今年 9 月至 10 月间集中获批。 对于尚未推出期货的山寨币或 Meme 币(如 BONK、TRUMP 等),若要 ETF 化则需依赖《1940 年投资公司法》路径,采用不同产品结构。而从历史经验来看,监管层更倾向采用基于《1933 年证券法》的「纯现货」ETF 模式。 注:SEC 所公布的是关于加密货币 ETP 的上市标准,但具体到这批即将推出的加密货币产品,大多会采用 ETF 结构。

Bitwise高管:财库公司解决以太坊叙事困境

7 月 31 日,据 Cointelegraph 报道,Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 表示,以太坊财库公司和持仓公司通过以传统投资者更易理解的方式包装这种数字资产,解决了以太坊的「叙事困境」,从而吸引了更多资本,加速了其采用。 Hougan 在接受采访时指出,以太坊一直难以为传统金融投资者明确其收益模型,直到其原生代币 Ether(ETH)被包装进类似「股票壳」的结构中。 他解释说:「过去几年,从估值角度来看,ETH 一直面临一个问题,那就是华尔街找不到它为何有价值的明确答案。它是价值储藏手段吗?是销毁机制带来的稀缺性?是收入来源吗?还是质押的收益?没人说得清。但如果拿出 10 亿美元的 ETH 放进一家公司,并将其用于质押,那么就会立刻开始产出收益。而投资者对能够产生收益的公司是非常熟悉的。」

加密ETF的“诺曼底时刻”:SEC新规默许质押收益,Coinbase成最大赢家

2024年比特币现货ETF获批后,美国监管机构正推动山寨币ETF的“通用上市标准”,将审批权部分下放至合规期货交易所。Coinbase凭借其衍生品平台和质押服务成为最大受益者,可能主导Avalanche、Solana等主流山寨币的ETF化进程。新规将加速加密资产融入传统金融,而Coinbase的生态系统优势使其成为连接两大领域的关键枢纽。

评论:为何艺术展正在消失,加密货币成了富人的洗钱工具?

艺术品市场正面临加密货币的冲击,传统作为富人节税、洗钱工具的艺术品交易逐渐被更高效的加密资产取代。台北当代艺术博览会停办反映了中端艺术市场的萎缩,热钱正流向流动性更强、交易成本更低的加密货币。富人以往通过艺术信托、自由港或1031 Exchange节税,如今加密市场提供了更匿名、便捷的替代方案。尽管顶级艺术品市场依然稳固,但中端市场被掏空,艺术展生存困境凸显。未来,艺术品的区块链代币化(RWA)或成新出路,解决真伪与流动性问题,但传统艺术生态已难回昔日繁荣。

空投倒计时!Linea掀桌L2赛道:双通缩引擎输血以太坊,9%代币解锁开启“正统性投票”

沉寂两年的ConsenSys旗下zkEVM项目Linea突然宣布重大进展:公布完整代币经济模型,确认9%代币空投在即,并创新性提出"以太坊优先"机制——所有Gas费用用ETH支付并部分销毁,剩余80%用于回购销毁LINEA代币,形成"双通缩"模型。该项目试图重构L2与L1的价值关系,将自身定位为以太坊的"价值放大器",但当前TVL仅5亿美元,生态成熟度仍面临挑战。

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Bitcoin and Ethereum Soar Together! Eight Altcoins Worth Watching in the Later Market

Bitcoin and Ethereum Surge, Fueling Altcoin Speculation. Bitcoin Eyes $77,000, Ethereum Gains 20% in a Single Day. Market anticipates capital rotation from major cryptos to high-beta altcoins, but a selective rise is expected, favoring projects with genuine users, protocol revenue, and healthy tokenomics. Analysts highlight eight altcoins across key sectors: **High-Performance Blockchains:** * **SOL (Solana):** Market cap ~$51.88B. A dominant player with a strong ecosystem. Considered a relatively safe bet for potential catch-up growth. * **SUI (Sui):** Market cap ~$3.03B. High volatility potential but faces risks from its low circulating supply and future token unlocks. **DeFi Lending:** * **UNI (Uniswap):** Market cap ~$2.38B. Transitioning to a revenue-capturing asset post-fee switch implementation. * **AAVE (Aave):** Market cap ~$1.53B. Features balanced tokenomics and revenue but has seen significant recent gains. * **MORPHO:** Market cap ~$1.50B. Rapid protocol growth but weaker token value capture and opaque supply data. **Perpetual DEX:** * **HYPE (Hyperliquid):** Market cap ~$16.41B. The clear sector leader with strong revenue but high valuation and a large portion of tokens still locked, warranting caution. **RWA & On-Chain Finance Infrastructure:** * **LINK (Chainlink):** Market cap ~$8.09B. A key oracle provider positioned to benefit from multiple trends like RWA and institutional adoption, offering strong fundamentals. * **ONDO (Ondo Finance):** Market cap ~$1.77B. Shows strong business growth but carries high risks due to concentrated token holdings and a massive unlock scheduled for 2027. **Conclusion:** The altcoin rally is expected to be selective. Recommendations include a medium position in SOL, small allocations to SUI and UNI/AAVE for DeFi exposure, and caution with HYPE and ONDO due to their specific risks. LINK is suggested as a core holding for the RWA thematic.

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Bitcoin and Ethereum Soar Together! Eight Altcoins Worth Watching in the Later Market

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Shanghai's $10 Billion Unicorn Is About to Go Public

Shanghai-based automotive-grade millimeter-wave radar chip unicorn Calterah Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. has filed for an IPO on Shanghai's STAR Market, aiming to raise 3.49 billion yuan. Founded in 2014 by Chen Jiashu, a UC Berkeley PhD graduate, and his professor Ali Niknejad, Calterah pioneered CMOS technology for 77GHz radar chips, breaking the decades-long monopoly of international giants like Texas Instruments. Its low-cost, highly integrated solutions enabled millimeter-wave radar to move from luxury to mass-market vehicles. By 2025, Calterah captured a 31.1% share in China's automotive millimeter-wave radar chip market (second domestically, fourth globally), with cumulative shipments exceeding 30 million units. Its client list includes BYD, Geely, Nio, and Volvo. The company has undergone 11 funding rounds, attracting high-profile investors such as the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase II, China Capital Management, and GD Capital. Its valuation has reached tens of billions of yuan, with a projected post-IPO valuation of approximately 14 billion yuan. Despite rapid revenue growth—increasing from 206 million yuan in 2023 to 632 million yuan in 2025 with a 75.28% CAGR—Calterah remains unprofitable. It reported net losses of 323 million yuan, 334 million yuan, and 193 million yuan from 2023 to 2025, accumulating over 900 million yuan in losses over three and a half years. These losses are primarily attributed to heavy R&D investment, which totaled over 1.039 billion yuan in the reporting period, often exceeding annual revenue. The company faces significant risks, including high customer concentration (its top five customers accounted for over 99% of revenue from 2023-2025, with BYD alone representing over 50% in 2025) and supply chain concentration. Revenue pressure from key customers and dependencies on overseas suppliers for EDA tools and IP pose challenges to sustainable growth. The IPO is seen as crucial for securing capital to expand production, diversify its customer base, and reduce supply chain dependencies.

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Shanghai's $10 Billion Unicorn Is About to Go Public

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Ray Dalio's Latest Macro Analysis Full Text: Buy More Gold, Add Some Bitcoin

In his latest macro analysis, Ray Dalio applies his framework from "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle" to the current global debt environment. He highlights recent events like Japan selling U.S. Treasuries and rising U.S. long-term yields as signs of an unsustainable debt dynamic. Dalio explains that excessive government debt leads to either unacceptably high interest rates, severe economic downturns, or significant currency debasement through central bank money printing. He summarizes the U.S. fiscal situation: with $5.5 trillion in revenue, $7.5 trillion in spending, a $2 trillion deficit, and total debt at six times annual revenue, debt servicing costs are immense. Without correction, U.S. debt could reach $55-$60 trillion in a decade. Dalio proposes a "3% Three-Way" solution: reducing the budget deficit to 3% of GDP through balanced spending cuts, tax increases, and interest rate reductions to avoid a traumatic adjustment. In response to FAQs, he argues that the risk of a U.S. debt crisis is high and could materialize within a few years if the current path continues. He dismisses the notion that the dollar's reserve status makes the U.S. immune, citing historical precedents of reserve currency declines. He is also unconvinced by Japan's high-debt stability, noting poor returns for yen-denominated assets. For investors, Dalio recommends diversifying globally, underweighting bonds, and overweighting assets like gold and a small allocation to Bitcoin (around 10-15% to gold) to hedge against currency debasement and poor debt returns.

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Ray Dalio's Latest Macro Analysis Full Text: Buy More Gold, Add Some Bitcoin

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Stripe’s 16-Year Chronicle: From 7 Lines of Code to a $100 Billion Valuation

Stripe's 16-year journey began with a simple promise: "7 lines of code to accept payments." Founded by Patrick and John Collison, the company started by hiding the complexity of bank integrations and merchant accounts behind a clean API, initially targeting developers at startups. This early focus on user experience and technical simplicity fueled rapid adoption. A key early milestone was establishing vital bank partnerships, a challenge overcome by hiring Billy Alvarado, who brought crucial institutional relationship skills. From this foundation, Stripe systematically expanded its product boundaries. It launched Connect for platform payments, Atlas for company formation, Radar for fraud prevention, and Billing for subscriptions. This transformed Stripe from a payment processor into a broader financial infrastructure suite for internet businesses. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated growth but also led to over-hiring. A 14% layoff in 2022 marked a period of organizational correction. Subsequently, Stripe shifted its growth strategy towards strategic acquisitions to enter new domains quickly. It acquired Bridge (stablecoin infrastructure), Privy (wallet infrastructure), Metronome (usage-based billing), and agreed to buy OpenRouter (AI model routing). These moves signal Stripe's ambition to build a "programmable money system" for the emerging AI and agent-based economy, managing not just currency flows but also the measurement and pricing of computational resources like AI tokens. Internally, Stripe leverages AI agents (like "Minions") to boost engineering productivity. Despite scaling to nearly 8,000 employees and processing $1.9 trillion in payment volume annually, the company remains private. A recent employee tender offer valued it at $159 billion. The core question for Stripe's future is whether it can successfully integrate its expanding product matrix—spanning payments, crypto, and AI infrastructure—into a cohesive platform, positioning itself as the foundational economic layer for autonomous software agents.

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Stripe’s 16-Year Chronicle: From 7 Lines of Code to a $100 Billion Valuation

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